Avoiding a repeat of 2011 may depend on Coach Sullivan

Acknowledgement: This article inspired by the passion of #bucnation, particularly a conversation with @BillBeck27. Join us on Twitter!

Coming off a 10-6 season in 2010 where the team nearly made the playoffs, no Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan was ready for the disappointment of the 4-12 season in 2011. A 4-2 start to the season seemed very promising -- then nothing went right the rest of the season. How could this happen? How can a team compete with the best of the best in 2010, but look so lost the next season with a large number of the same players in place with an additional year of experience?

For football stats geeks, you go to the numbers. And I've been raking through the past two years until I actually started dreaming about them (then I took a break -- no need to go insane). Finally, I think I have a decent grip on the problem. And I feel very good about how it's being addressed.

In short, I think this is still a team with double-digit win talent. I believe in 2011 the problem was not the players, it was the game plan, and those responsible have already been replaced.

It is said that pictures are worth 1,000 words, and I agree. But for number hackers, a table is evenbetter. Here are what I believe to be the key numbers regarding the Tampa Bay 2011 season:

2011 (4-12)
Opponent	Run Plays	Pass Plays	Total Plays	Run %	Pass %	Result
Detroit	16	46	62	25.8%	74.2%	L
Minnesota	19	31	50	38.0%	62.0%	W
Atlanta	36	32	68	52.9%	47.1%	W
Indianapolis	36	39	75	48.0%	52.0%	W
San Francisco	23	33	56	41.1%	58.9%	L
New Orleans	25	41	66	37.9%	62.1%	W
Chicago	11	52	63	17.5%	82.5%	L
New Orleans	20	37	57	35.1%	64.9%	L
Houston	18	35	53	34.0%	66.0%	L
Green Bay	20	38	58	34.5%	65.5%	L
Tennessee	25	33	58	43.1%	56.9%	L
Carolina	27	27	54	50.0%	50.0%	L
Jacksonville	24	32	56	42.9%	57.1%	L
Dallas	13	27	40	32.5%	67.5%	L
Carolina	19	38	57	33.3%	66.7%	L
Atlanta	14	45	59	23.7%	76.3%	L
Season Avg:	21.6	36.6	58.3	37.1%	62.9%

The red marks are not losses. Those are the games where the Buccaneers passed on 55% or more of their offensive plays. Look at all that red, and remember this was a 4-12 season.

Now the same information for the 2010 season:

2010 (10-6)
Opponent	Run Plays	Pass Plays	Total Plays	Run %	Pass %	Result
Cleveland	30	28	58	51.7%	48.3%	W
Carolina	34	25	59	57.6%	42.4%	W
Pittsburgh	21	31	52	40.4%	59.6%	L
Cincinnati	22	33	55	40.0%	60.0%	W
New Orleans	18	43	61	29.5%	70.5%	L
Saint Louis	21	40	61	34.4%	65.6%	W
Arizona	30	25	55	54.5%	45.5%	W
Atlanta	27	22	49	55.1%	44.9%	L
Carolina	30	24	54	55.6%	44.4%	W
San Francisco	42	22	64	65.6%	34.4%	W
Baltimore	23	37	60	38.3%	61.7%	L
Atlanta	29	39	68	42.6%	57.4%	L
Washington	26	25	51	51.0%	49.0%	W
Detroit	28	32	60	46.7%	53.3%	L
Seattle	26	26	52	50.0%	50.0%	W
New Orleans	24	26	50	48.0%	52.0%	W
Season Avg:	26.9	29.9	56.8	47.4%	52.6%

And hopefully you can see where I'm going here. Over the past two seasons, when the Buccaneers pass the ball more than 55% of their offensive plays, they are a miserable 4-15. However, when the Buccaneers pass the ball less than 55% of their offensive plays, they are an amazing 10-3. Said another way: when the Buccaneers play balanced offense or emphasize the running game, they win much more often than they lose. Period.

When General Manager Mark Dominik and then Head Coach Raheem Morris were introduced as the new leadership team in 2009, they talked about the kind of team they were looking to create. They stated they would be building a physical, powerful, team emphasizing defense and the running game. In 2009, the roster was retooled in many ways. In 2010, the plan started to show itself, with the Buccaneers finishing in the top 10 in the NFL in two significant statistics: rushing yards per game and defensive points allowed.

Then the 2011 season came along and the Buccaneers went pass happy. In my opinion, then OC Greg Olson returned to his Saint Louis mindset and the offensive approach of former head coach John Gruden, which somewhat resembles a West Coast offense but with some "Gruden original" formations (the bunch formation and others). In other words, he believed he had a group which would flourish in such a system. But he was wrong: it worked for six games, then the NFL adjusted to it, and from then on it did not work. Head Coach Raheem Morris did not step in and put the team back on track with the formula which worked in 2010. And things seemed to accelerate in the wrong direction as the season went on, with quarterback Josh Freeman regressing in his development.

I have met Coach Morris in person, and I like that guy an awful lot. I have a lot of respect for a person who can take one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and go 10-6 in his second year as head coach. I believe he should get a fair share of the credit for the 2010 season. But, unfortunately, he gets the lions share of the blame for 2011 for not making the corrections I would expect a head coach to make. I believe that is the reason why, after the season was over, he and his entire staff had to be released.

The release of the coaching staff after last season is why I believe the Buccaneers will get back on track in 2012. Not only is new Offensive Coordinator Mike Sullivan coming from a team with an offense which has demonstrated good balance and effectively runs the ball, so does new Head Coach Greg Schiano. Also, the front office has provided Coach Sullivan a run-game guru in Jimmy Raye to help develop the punishing ground game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are built for. This could be the single key factor in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers success next season.

In 2010, with a ball control offense, the Buccaneers Defense finished in the Top 10 in the NFL for least points allowed. I believe the defense can be improved this offseason. But I do not believe it is broken.

I have confidence the correct moves have been made in response to the disappointing season which was 2011. I have great hope that the 2012 NFL season will have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back on the right track. How quickly the team can mentally shake the collapse of 2011 off their shoulders and move on will be something to watch closely as the season unfolds.

Will the Buccaneers return to the NFL playoffs next season? Many factors are in play, but if they utilize their offense in line with the vision with which it was assembled they could find themselves in another playoff hunt in 2012.

 

Dominik vs. The NFC Champions: Offense

Congratulations to the New York Giants, NFC Champions for the 2011-2012 season!  I am very jealous, and want the George Halas Trophy in Tampa so badly.  Are the Buccaneers on track?

General Manager Mark Dominik has stayed the path of building with youth and only adding the occasional free agent.  Many fans have "Fantasy Football Syndrome", where free agents cost a few dollars, there is no salary cap, and statistics strictly determine the worth of a player.  This season, all Tampa Bay Buccaneer fans got a good look at another factor which Fantasy Football does not consider: team chemistry.

So, does real life NFL success match the philosophy of the Buccaneers GM?  Time to dissect the 2012 NFC Champion New York Giants and see what we can learn.

NY Giants Offense

The Offensive two-deep for the New York Giants:

QB Eli Manning - Draft Day Trade (2004); has only been a Giant

QB David Carr - Free Agent (from 49ers, 2010; 2nd stint with the Giants)

RB Brandon Jacobs - Drafted (4th Round, 2005); has only been a Giant

RB DJ Ware - Undrafted, 2010; has only been a Giant

FB Henry Hynoski - Undrafted, 2011; has only been a Giant

WR Mario Manningham - Drafted (3rd Round, 2008); has only been a Giant

WR Hakeem Nicks - Drafted (1st Round, 2009); has only been a Giant

WR Victor Cruz - Undrafted, 2010; has only been a Giant

WR Jerrel Jernigan - Drafted (3rd Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

TE Jake Ballard - Undrafted, 2010; has only been a Giant

TE Travis Beckum - Drafted (3rd Round, 2009); has only been a Giant

T Will Beatty - Drafted (2nd Round, 2009); has only been a Giant

T James Brewer - Drafted (4th Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

T Kareem McKenzie - Free Agent (from Jets, 2005)

T Stacy Andrews - Free Agent (from Seattle, 2010)

G Chris Snee - Drafted (2nd Round, 2004); has only been a Giant

G Mitch Petrus - Drafted (5th Round, 2010); has only been a Giant

G David Diehl - Drafted (5th Round, 2003); has only been a Giant

G Kevin Boothe - Free Agent (from Oakland, 2006)

C David Baas - Free Agent (from 49ers, 2010)

That is:

1 Trade

4 Undrafted (College) Free Agents

5 Free Agents

10 Drafted

Of the half the players on the New York Giants offensive 2-deep who were drafted, only Hakeem Nicks was a first round draft choice.  The draft choice breakdown is:

1 First Rounder

2 Second Rounders

3 Third Rounders

2 Fourth Rounders

2 Fifth Rounders

This is a unit built through the draft.  With only five free agents and one traded player out of 20 players.  Four of the five free agents are on the offensive line, while the fifth is the backup quarterback.

Half the drafted players were "middle round" picks, and all of the draft picks were selected in the fifth round or earlier.  None of the draft picks have more than eight years in the NFL; that is, this unit was eight years in the making.

The composition of this group does follow the philosophy of General Manager Mark Dominik, starting with drafting a quarterback to build around in Josh Freeman:  Eli Manning is the oldest draft pick on the Giant's two deep.  Building through the draft and going light on free agents can (and does) produce a championship squad. Clearly, the Buccaneers are on the correct path.  Sometimes this produces lightning in a bottle:  In 2007, the New York Giants won the SuperBowl with the lowest payroll in the NFL.

But this is only half the story.  Next up is a look at the defense.

Freeman's Thumb Clearly An Issue

Josh Freeman has stated several times his thumb injury is small, not a problem, and no big deal.

I have to disagree.

According to Freeman via Rick Stroud of the Saint Petersberg Times, the thumb is has affected his throwing "a little bit". I believe it has affected his throwing a great deal.

Rewatching the Texans game from this past Sunday, Freeman mostly threw high (like above the receiver's head) and never achieved a tight spiral like his throws in 2010.  A high throw means his release point has changed as his hand comes over after windup, a sign of a lack of grip on the ball.  Bad grip (or a bad "feel" of the ball as it's released) makes for inaccuracy. Freeman put on clinics week after week last season on technique, ball speed, distance, and accuracy.  Clearly not the same thing this season.

A review of the Chicago game never showed Freeman gripping his hand or grimacing as the Buccaneers threw on their final six offensive plays to end the game.  In the post game press conference, the first 10 seconds shows Freeman's hand with no type of wrap, bandage, or support.  In fact, he unbuttons his jacket one handed using the thumb in question.  Nor does Freeman mention it during questioning.

So what is going on here?  What type of injury occurred in the Chicago game where there is no visible swelling, no sign of pain, yet requires a near-cast for a week and tape support during game time?  Is it a hairline fracture?

If the injury is significant, which apparently it is, why are the Buccaneers calling 33 pass plays versus just 16 rushing plays against the Texans?  Or 37 pass plays and only 16 running plays against New Orleans the week before?

Either Freeman and offensive coordinator Greg Olson are in denial about the injury, Freeman is having a "sophomore slump" type of season, or quarterback play is going to be down somewhat until the thumb in healed.

None of those cases bode well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who already face an uphill climb to the playoffs this season.

Buccaneers May Pass On Free Agents . . . Again

It's the biggest difference between Mark Dominik and Bruce Allen.  And it's hard for fans to sit through.

Bruce Allen brought in free agents by the truckload (and continues to do so in Washington).  Mark Dominik treads lightly into free agency.  And fans, addicted to the fast paced fantasy football mindset, are beside themselves waiting for that big name player to drag big game stats into Raymond James.

First and foremost, I overturned the Spend-To-Win Myth a couple years ago.  Please come to grips with it before reading further.

For 2011, I think there are many reasons the Buccaneers may not make a big splash in NFL Free Agency (just like last season), turning their $50+ million cap surplus inward for a select few of their own free agents instead.  My reasons for believing this are named Miller, Freeman, and Blount.  To name just a few.

Tampa Bay currently has 72 (plus or minus the last few hours) players from last season and 16 college free agents under contract -- there is not much more room left in camp for a free agency haul.

But I think staying away from the deep end of the free agent pool has much more to do with next year -- and the next.  In fact, I get the feeling Dominik is planning three years ahead (at least), when some very talented draft classes come out of their rookie contracts.

It starts next offseason when players like Josh Johnson, Geno Hayes, and Aqib Talib are in their fourth season, the typical length of a rookie contract.

In 2013, Dominik's first draft class will be reaching the end of their contracts.  Josh Freeman alone will require a significant paycheck to retain his services, not to mention Roy Miller, EJ Biggers, Sammie Stroughter, Kyle Moore, Micheal Bennett, and Rudy Carpenter.

2014 includes Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Cody Grimm, Myron Lewis, and Ted Larson.

Somewhere in there are the undrafted contributors like LeGarrette Blount, Derek Hardman, and Will Barker.

So Dominik should be tight fisted.  He has said all along (and again this week: listen for a minute each at 8:00, 17:30, and 19:40) he believes on drafting, developing, and rewarding the best talent creates the most consistent winners.  And his own drafting success may put him up against the salary cap in the next two years.

Freeman Changing The Mold Up Front

When Josh Freeman was drafted with the 18th pick in 2009 there were a lot of questions.  Those questions were answered in 2010 when Freeman put up, arguably, a Pro Bowl caliber year and demonstrated all the characteristics of a top-flight NFL quarterback.  In short, Josh is a franchise quarterback.

What do you do when you have a franchise quarterback?  You build the offense around him.

And Tampa Bay has done so, with a follow-up draft in 2010 which brought Rookie of the Year candidate Mike Williams, as well as nine-game starter Arrelious Benn.  This builds on the emergence of Sammie Stroughter from the 2009 draft.  Throw in exciting young players like Micheal Spurlock, Preston Parker, and Dezmon Briscoe and you have a fleet of young wide receivers for Freeman to grow with.

Then add some young runners like LeGarrette Blount and Kregg Lumpkin and you give Freeman more options and more room to grow.

A more subtle and slow change, however, has been going on up front on the offensive line.  The physical tools of Freeman have started to impact what the Buccaneers appear to be looking for in offensive linemen.  Freeman is a tall man even by NFL quarterback standards.  At 6'6" he is one of the six tallest men on the roster.  It's the other five tallest Buccaneers where the changes are brewing.

Since 2009, Tampa Bay has added Demar Dotson (6'9"), Will Barker (6'7"), Derek Hardman (6'6"), and Brandon Carter (6'6") to the platoon of offensive linemen on the current roster (the fifth tall man on the roster, 6'8" Jeremy Trueblood, has been starting at left tackle for several seasons).  Dotson and Barker are offensive tackles;  Hardman and Carter are offensive Guards.  These men are not just tall, they are big -- Carter, Barker, and Dotson are all over 315 pounds.  Hardman is currently listed at an even 300 pounds.  Even Donald Penn, the entrenched starter at right tackle, is a big man:  6'5" and 305 pounds.

When a quarterback drops back after taking a snap (or even starts from the shotgun), he must be able to see downfield to make various decisions about which and when receivers will be open.  Taller offensive linemen (that is, above 6'3") have mostly been utilized only at the edges of the offensive line as tackles.  Having a tall tackle does not generally obstruct the downfield view of the quarterback as they protect the outside on passing plays.  And tackles with long arms mean it's harder for defensive ends to get a clean path to the quarterback.

The Buccaneers may be on the way toward a different philosophy.  With a 6'6" quarterback standing tall in the pocket, and knowing offensive linemen play with bended knees to lower their center of gravity, GM Mark Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris' coaching staff appear to be targeting giant men all across the offensive line.

Tampa Bay appears to be finding NFL caliber players who fit the bill.  Dotson, the tallest man on the team according to the current roster, played substantial minutes at left tackle in 2009 as an undrafted free agent.  He showed enough promise to be held on IR for all of 2010.  Hardman and Barker were signed to the practice squad after roster cuts last season (Dominik's Second Draft of 2010); Carter was also on the practice squad once the dust settled.  By the time the Buccaneers closed the 2010 season at New Orleans, all three men were on the active roster and Hardman was starting at right guard.

This is no fluke.  These men were sought out by the Buccaneers and have been promoted into the mix rapidly.  There could be quite a battle up front on offense at the next training camp and it appears to be by design.  If the youngsters make progress, Tampa Bay could have one of the largest offensive line groups in the NFL in the near future.  In addition, I would not be at all surprised to see this trend show up in the Tampa Bay 2011 NFL Draft.

Only in the NFL could Josh Freeman dream of one day playing behind an offensive line where each man is physically larger than he is.  If the trend continues, that day may not be far away.

Running Game In High Gear

During the brutal 3-13 season of 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still managed to rush for 100+ yards per game (101.7 ypg to be exact).  That resuted in a 1,627 yards on the ground.  Twenty-Two teams in the NFL generated more production by running the ball than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The story is very different this season.  So different, the Buccaneers eclipsed last year's rushing total last weekend, with two more games still remaining.  

As of today, Tampa Bay has run for 1,709 yards this season.  Well over 90% of those yards have been created by the four players with more than 10 carries this season:

Player	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry
LeGarrette Blount	164	777	4.7
Cadillac Williams	120	409	3.4
Josh Freeman	60	330	5.5
Earnest Graham	20	99	5.0

As a squad, the Buccaneers offense is showing some comparative muscle around the NFL as well:  Tampa Bay has moved into the Top 10 in the NFL in total rushing yards.  They are in a tight group of five teams who are averaging between 121 and 123 rushing yards per game, which includes (besides Tampa Bay):  Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and Minnesota Vikings.  Very good company considering the Buccaneers are the youngest team in the group by far!

Early in the season the Buccaneers running game was questioned.  Through all the injuries on the offensive line and with young, unproven receivers the Tampa Bay offense has developed a solid ground game.  This is a component of the vision expressed by General Manager Mark Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris when they took over at One Buccaneers Place -- a physical running attack.

It's hard to believe a 3-13 team last season can end up with a Top 10 rushing attack the next season, but the Buccaneers are on pace to make it happen in 2010.

Josh Freeman vs. Steve Young

About 25 years ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up a quarterback in the USFL supplemental draft.  He played 19 games over two years, then was traded away for a second and a fourth round pick to the San Francisco 49ers.  His name was Steve Young.

This weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fly out to San Francisco with a young quarterback who just completed his own 19 games of Buccaneer football.  

Steve Young is one of the best NFL quarterbacks to play the game.  He has three SuperBowl rings to prove it  (one as MVP) and won six passing titles during his career.  A stellar fourteen year career by any measure.  League MVP twice. 

Of course, Josh Freeman does not compare at this point having been in the NFL for less than two seasons.

But what about the start of their respective careers?

Certainly the game has changed.  This is not completely apples to apples. But it's fun nonetheless.  Both players started their NFL careers with Tampa Bay so, to start with, they have their NFL roots in common.

Steve Young threw 501 passes in his first 19 games as a Buccaneer, completing 267 for about a 53% completion percentage amassing 3,217 yards.  Josh Freeman has thrown 560 times in his first 19 games, completing 322 of them (about 57%) for 3,818 yards.

Josh Freeman has thrown 23 interceptions, two more than Steve Young with the same number of games.  On the other hand, Freeman has thrown 22 touchdowns while Young threw only 11 while he was a Buccaneer.

All those numbers are pretty comparable, and the minor differences are easlily attributed to how the play of an NFL game has changed (more passing, faster players, etc).  Young had James Wilder behind him in the backfield and threw to Jimmy Giles, Gerald Carter, Kevin House, and Calvin Magee while posting a 3-16 record over those nineteen games.

After just two years, the success-starved Tampa Bay fans considered Young a bust.  After Young's second season (1986) his coach, Leaman Bennett, was released.  In came Ray Perkins holding the #1 pick in the draft.  Out went Young (out west, to be exact) for two additional picks in the Buccaneer's 1987 NFL Draft which resulted in the selections of LB Winston Moss and WR Bruce Hill.  The rest is history.  A lot of history.  Much of it documented in the Hall of Fame.  None of it happened in Tampa.

This weekend, Josh Freeman takes a 10-9 record through his own 19 game NFL initiation out west to meet the team which landed Young all those years ago.  Freeman has a rotation of running backs and an extremely young group of receivers.  The fans in the (Tampa) Bay Area have slowly started to warm up to his presence in the backfield because of the solid improvement in his game this season.  Clearly Freeman is the future, which could not be said about Young during his stay.

Most impressively, the young Freeman holds up pretty well in comparison to the start of the career of Steve Young.  Not many teams with young quarterbacks (Jets, Lions, Rams, etc) can say the same.

The San Francisco 49ers have had their own share of trials and tribulations at quarterback recently -- how long has it been since the quarterback position in Tampa has been this settled?  I have no doubt those fans are restless with past succeses making them even hungrier for a return to winning.

So to the 49ers fans (and to unconvinced Tampa Bay fans, too) I say, hang in there -- as you work your way through a difficult season you may forget the lesson we here in Tampa learned over the course of about 12 years:  One Teams trash is Another Team's Treasure.

What A Difference A Year Makes

This time, last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were reeling from an 0-7 start and had just returned from London.  This was the bye week in 2009.  The entire Buccaneer Nation was dismayed, disturbed, and disheartened by the record and the way the hard changes brought on by first year General Manager Mark Dominik and first year Head Coach Raheem Morris had impacted the team.

Fast forward one year later and Tampa Bay has reached 5-2, with the NFC South divisional lead on the line next weekend as the Buccaneers head to Atlanta. 

In 2009, the Buccaneers were handing the reigns of the team over to rookie quarterback Josh Freeman.  Freeman has been the quarterback ever since, compiling an 8-8 record and making big progress this year.  2009 also saw the emergence of rookie wide receiver Sammie Stroughter, who also has found his rhythm this season and is now a steady contributor.  And the foundation for a young defensive line had been set as rookie defensive tackle Roy Miller was showing flashes of becoming a dominant performer.

In 2010, there has been more talent added with names like Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Gerald McCoy, and Cody Grimm.  This team is certainly performing far ahead of expectations, although some thought a playoff run was within reach.

Yes, there will be more nail biters this season, more games where the results are in doubt late into the fourth quarter.  And the youthful Buccaneers may get big chunks of points as quickly as they may give up a big chunk of points.  And it will drive the fans crazy.

You do get the feeling, however, you are not just cheering for 2010.  It's starting to feel like you are cheering for the bright future ahead for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!

Buccaneers Bring The Big

6 feet even, 247 pounds.  6 feet 4 inches, 275 pounds.  6 feet 6 inches, 248 pounds.

Thats 770 pounds of football player.  It's not a set of linebackers, nor is it a set of defensive linemen.  It's the Josh Freeman, Erik Lorig, LeGarrette Blount backfield first utilized by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Saint Louis Rams.

With Lorig in the backfield, the Buccaneers boast as much size and power as anyone in the NFL.  Lorig has yet to record a carry or a reception but that is not his function.  He is a steamroller for the tailbacks (so far?).  Blount has made his presence known as he continues to work his way into the playing rotation, with 4.9 yards/carry and over 100 total yards on the season thus far.

While these youngsters have shown great promise this season, as well as giant upside, there is another thing they bring to the Buccaneers which may be even more valuable:  they can extend the careers of Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams.  Every carry the youngsters take extends the career of Graham and Williams by another play.  The versatility and experience of the Tampa Bay running game is keeping the focus on the offensive backfield, allowing the young receiving corp a chance to make themselves a threat to respect.  Once the passing game reaches maturity, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have the most balanced attack seen on the Gulf Coast since 2002, which had Micheal Pittman and Mike Alstott in the backfield with Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, and Joe Jurivcious running routes.

Will the Freeman/Lorig/Blount combination be utilized against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend?  With the injury problems up front on offense and the release of Keydrick Vincent it may not be a question.

It may be the answer.

Freeman Taking A Big Step Forward

Josh Freeman, the first pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2009, has taken a big step forward this season.  This weekend, he will be completing his first "season", with a chance of reaching an even 8-8 to start his career.  But that is a small part of the story of Josh Freeman's NFL career thus far.

In his first year, Freeman did not get much time under center in training camp, nor did he start any of the first 7 games of the 2009 season.  But when the Buccaneers realized 2009 was not going to be a playoff year, they handed the reigns to the young signal caller.  Freeman took those initial lumps, some of them pretty solid, but nonetheless was the starting quarterback for all three of the Buccaneer wins in 2009.  Like any rookie, he had his ups and downs:  his most productive game was a 321 yard effort on 44 attempts against Carolina, but he was also intercepted five times that day.  His most efficient game was against Atlanta with a 118.5 quarterback rating, which was followed two weeks later by his least efficient day, a 12.1 passer rating against the Jets.  Of the nine games he played in 2009, only one did not involve an interception.  Learning on the job in the NFL is hard.

Josh Freeman - 2009

Opponent	Att	Comp	Yards	Sack/Lost	TD	Long	Int	Rating	Won/Lost
GreenBay	31	14	205	1/7	3	38	1	86.1	W
Miami	28	16	196	4/16	1	37	1	75.9	L
New Orleans	33	17	126	3/26	1	21	3	33.1	L
Atlanta	29	20	250	1/5	2	42	0	118.5	L
Carolina	44	23	321	2/6	0	40	5	36.5	L
New York Jets	33	14	93	3/12	0	15	3	12.1	L
Seattle	26	16	205	0/0	2	22	1	95.8	W
New Orleans	31	21	271	3/8	0	35	2	68.1	W
Atlanta	31	15	172	1/6	1	27	2	49.4	L

Fast forward through a full set of OTAs, a full offseason, and a full preseason as the primary signal caller, and those lumps seem to have molded a efficient young quarterback.  While Freeman's passer rating last year was erratic (high: 118.5, low: 12.1, average 59.8), this year it has been in a much tighter range (high:  102.4, low  67.1, average 82.8 through Week 7).  Josh Freeman has become more consistent at being consistent, a very important quality in the offensive leader.  He does have three picks in six games but also has seven touchdowns in the same time period making his touchdown to interception ratio better than 2:1 -- the mark of a winning quarterback.

Josh Freeman - 2010

Opponent	Att	Comp	Yards	Sack/Lost	TD	Long	Int	Rating	Won/Lost
Cleveland	28	17	182	3/13	2	33	1	88.7	W
Carolina	24	12	178	0/0	2	40	0	102.4	W
Pittsburgh	31	20	184	3/16	0	46	1	67.1	L
Cincinnati	33	20	280	3/18	1	37	1	85.4	W
New Orleans	43	25	219	0/0	1	27	0	79.5	L
Saint Louis	40	23	212	3/23	1	21	0	80.4	W

If you take Freeman's statistics through the first six games of 2010 and project them to the same number of games he played last year (nine), the improvement is completely obvious (see table below). The projections show nearly the same number of attempts, completions, yards, and exactly the same number of touchdowns.  However, through 9 games last season, the rookie Freeman threw 18 interceptions.  The nine game projection suggests only four interceptions over the same number of games this season.  Truly a remarkable turnaround for a young player.

Taking it one step farther, if you project Freeman's current 2010 numbers out to a 16 game season, Freeman rates out squarely in the middle of the pack among all NFL quarterbacks.  Considering the number of rookies he is working with this season as well as the learning curve he is still climbing, to finish anywhere among the top half of the league is impressive.  The numbers also show a full command of the game, with a touchdown-to-interception ratio projected to be 2.3.  In fact, among quarterbacks with more than 100 attempts so far this season, Freeman is tied for 5th lowest number of interceptions (Matt Cassel, Kansas City has 3, four others have only 2, nobody has less than two).

Seasons

Year/Games	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	20+	40+	Sck	SckY	Rate
2009/9*	290	158	54.5	29.0	1,855	6.4	185.5	10	3.4	18	6.2	42T	25	2	20	102	59.8
2010/6	199	117	58.8	33.2	1,255	6.3	209.2	7	3.5	3	1.5	46	17	2	12	70	82.8
2010/9**	298	176			1,883			10		4
2010/16**	530	312			3,346			19		8

* Does not include the 2 of 4, 16 yard mop-up duty against New England in Week 7, 2009 
** Estimated

Although Freeman struggled, it appears the way the Buccaneers handled Josh Freeman in his rookie year is producing big returns.  Coach Raheem Morris and General Manager Mark Dominik have stated since making Freeman their ever draft pick he was the franchise quarterback they could build a team around.  Considering Freeman's improvement after just a partial year you can only wonder where his upside levels off, and that's exactly what you want in a franchise quarterback.

General Manager Dominik's Plan, Year 2

Tampa Bay General Manager Mark Dominik has stated his intent since taking over at the top of the Buccaneers was to mold the Buccaneers into a powerful, fast team and build through the draft for the long term, not through free agency for the short term.  Let's see if that is indeed the approach he has been taking so far.

Getting Younger
As documented here many times before Dominik has made the hard (and, in retrospect, dead on right) moves in this area.  The intent behind the veteran purge during the 2009 offseason was to provide opportunities for young players to step up and demonstrate they are capable of competing at the NFL level.  Although the team did not put up many wins, players like Geno Hayes and Maurice Stovall demonstrated skills that the team can build around.  In addition, those moves helped the Buccaneers to reduce payroll from $104 million in 2008 to $94 million in 2009, generating room to retain young talent as they become free agents.  While the CBA has changed free agency into a chess match this year, the Buccaneers nonetheless have ample resources to play the game.

Stability at Quarterback
After the selection of Josh Freeman with the #17 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft GM Dominik stated his intent was to make the quarterback position a source of strength and stability for the franchise instead of the revolving door it had been during the previous regime.  And not just the Freeman pick -- during the season Dominik picked a young quarterback off the Dallas Cowboys practice squad.   This foresight removes the Buccaneers from the QB drama of the 2010 NFL Draft and allows the team to take the best available player with the #3 pick.  New Cleveland Browns GM Mike Holmgren is fighting the same battle, first year GM Bruce Allen may be looking to get a young QB with the #4 pick for the Redskins, and the Rams are looking at that quarterback at the top of the draft with pick #1.

By settling the quarterback position last year, the Buccaneers will have plenty of great choices during the 2010 draft to address other positions on the team.   How confident was Dominik that this part of his plan was working as he wanted?  Rumor has it he attended the Oklahoma @ Nebraska fooball game on November 7th, 2009, in Lincoln, Nebraska (for the record, that was the Buccaneers Bye week in 2009).  If so, looks like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers draft preparation for 2010 was right on the mark long ago as the top two non-quarterback prospects played in that game in the persons of Ndamukong Sun (DL, Nebraska) and Gerald McCoy (DL, Oklahoma).  In 2008 Dominik attended a college game which involved 2009 first round pick Josh Freeman -- seems a pattern could be developing!

Moving foward

For 2010, the workings of the next phase of the plan could not be clearer.  During the offseason the NFL roster limit is 80 players.  Just prior to free agency, the Bucs trimmed their roster to 70 (anticipating 10 draft picks) by cutting Josh Bidwell (P), Dirk Johnson (P), and Torrie Cox (DB). 

Nine men were then tendered free agent offers:
- Rod Wilson (LB)
- Byron Storer (RB)
- Matt McCoy (LB)
- Brian Clark (WR)
- Jimmy Wilkerson (DE)
- Jermaine Phillips (S)
- Angelo Crowell (LB)
- Antonio Bryant (WR)
- Will Allen (S)

Here is what has transpired since:
Lost:  3/8/2010:  Brian Clark (WR, 4th season) signed by Detroit
Lost:  3/8/2010:  Will Allen (S, 7th season) signed by Pittsburgh
Added:  3/10/2010:  Reggie Brown (WR, 6th season, 6' 1", 197); Tampa Bay also gave up a 2011 6th round pick.
Lost: 3/10/2010:  Antonio Bryant (WR, 8th season) signed by Cincinnati
Added:  3/12/2010:  Jon Alston (LB, 5th season, 6' 0", 235 lbs)
Added:  3/16/2010:  Sean Jones (S, 7th season, 6' 1", 220 lbs)
Lost:  3/17/2010:  Matt McCoy (LB, 6th season) signed by Seattle

The pattern here is clear if you consider these transactions as sets of swap-outs:  one with wide receivers (Antonio Bryant for Reggie Brown), one with safeties (Will Allen for Sean Jones), one with linebackers (Jon Alston for Matt McCoy), and one without a match (WR Brian Clark).  These transactions are a good look into the thinking of the General Manager.

From the point of youth, the safety swap was a push, the wide receiver swap goes younger by two years, and the lineback swap goes younger by a year. These all fit the plan for getting young talent to create competition at all positions.

From the point of position these three swaps do not change the team composition.  This, to me, is a glimpse into the head of the GM.  There is a certain mix of players which is preferred, and the cuts before free agency landed the team at that mix.  The obvious intent with tendering the nine free agents is to get them back at market value (playing the expiring CBA to his own advantage) or release them to a team which places a higher value on the player.  When a free agent is hired away, a suitable replacement is signed.  This shows that the organization does not feel a need to change the internal chemistry of the team.  Put another way -- the Buccaneers are committing to their young players and not grabbing free agents which would reduce the minutes of the key players in the young core offense or defense.  This is exactly what we've been told time and time again by General Manager Mark Dominik -- this team will be built around young player development and not around a crop of veteran free agents.

Now the interesting part:  The team is "down" one wide receiver.  Going by the trend this offseason, we should expect the Buccaneers to sign a wide receiver soon with somewhere between 3 and 5 years of experience.  If Tampa Bay does not make such a move in the near future it tells me that the Buccaneers are anticipating drafting more than one wide receiver to bring the numbers into balance or the spot is staying open for a possible post-draft move later in free agency.  I think both options are equally good and equally likely.  UPDATE:  This unbalanced free agency loss has been offset by the award of a compensatory 7th round pick for the Buccaneers in the 2010 NFL Draft.  Expect at least one pick in the draft at WR because of the pattern outlined in this paragraph!

Barring another signing, the following players would rejoin the team at their tendered offer sometime in the near future:
- Rod Wilson (LB)
- Byron Storer (RB)
- Jimmy Wilkerson (DE)
- Jermaine Phillips (S)
- Angelo Crowell (LB)

These actions performed by General Manager Mark Dominik show that he is running this team with a steady hand, sticking to the principals he has stated he wants to build the team around, and keeping an eye open for young talent.  These are tried and true philosophies teams like Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have used to stay at a highly competitive level for many years.  I expect it will do the same for Tampa Bay.