Disrespected: Dominik Passed Over For Exec Of The Year

The biggest turnaround in team history.  The first team -- ever -- to win 10 games and start 10 rookies.  A Top 10 defense.  A Top 10 running game.  All this one season after going 3-13 as a rookie General Manager.  But you are *not* the Executive of the Year -- huh?

Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik has got to be asking himself, "What do you have to do to get some respect in this league?"

Well, I can answer that.  You need to start your career in the Northeast, preferably as close to ESPN or NBC headquarters as possible.  You need to be an assistant in a multiple-ring winning organization and "share" responsibilities with the Head Coach on personnel decisions.  Then you need to become GM of a franchise which (as of today) has not won a playoff game in 15 years.

Or, at least, these seem to be the things that mattered more, making Kansas City Chiefs GM Scott Pioli the NFL Executive of the Year for 2010.

Turning Around A Franchise Is . . . Not Important??

Among things which apparently do not matter:  Winning.  The Chiefs went 4-12 in 2009 and turned it around with a 10-6 campaign in 2010 (+6 in the win column, impressive).  A six game turnaround is a feat matches by only one other team in 2010: the Saint Louis Rams (1-15 to 7-9).

Yet there was one team which did better:  the Buccaneers, who went 3-13 in 2009 and also hit 10-6 in 2010 for a +7 in the win column.  Even more impressive.

But wait, that means Pioli has a 14-18 record, while Dominik has a 13-19 record, so winning really does matter, right?

Winning Against Playoff Teams While Rebuilding . . . Not Important??

In 2009, the Chiefs beat Washington (4-12), Oakland (5-11), Pittsburgh (9-7), and Denver (8-8).  Kansas City limped into the 2010 offseason winning 1 of their last 6 games.

That same season, the Buccaneers beat Seattle (5-11), Green Bay (11-5, playoffs), and the 2009 World Champion New Orleans Saints (13-3).   That's a combined "beaten opponents" win record for 2009 of 26-38 for Pioli, 29-19 for Dominik.  Tampa Bay went into the offseason posting two of their 3 wins in 2009 in their last 6 games (the final two games of the season).

Add in the fact of Dominik being in the NFC South, one of the strongest divisions in the NFL, while  Pioli is in the AFC West, one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, and which 10-win season is more impressive?

In 2010, the Chiefs beat one team with a winning record.  That was the Chargers (9-7 in 2010) in Week #1, 21-14.  Fourteen weeks later, the Chiefs lost at the Chargers 31-0 (Week #14).

In 2010, the Buccaneers also beat only one team with a winning record during the regular season:  the Defending World Champion Saints (11-5 in 2010; Dominik has yet to lose at the SuperDome) 23-13 in Week 17, on the road, avenging a 31-6 loss in Week #6.  Tampa Bay went into the offseason posting two of their 3 wins in 2009 in their last 6 games (the final two games of the season).

Perhaps somebody would argue winning is only about coaching?  Let's make a bad assumption and go with that theory -- even though it has been proven time and again talent plus coaching is what wins in the NFL.  So, for now, let's put the winning aside and look at talent.

A GM Should Be Able To Assemble A Solid Coaching Staff

Pioli has had one head coach, Todd Haley.  Pioli has also hired three offensive coordinators (and the position is currently vacant again) and two defensive coordinators.  After the 4-12 record of 2009, Pioli hired a former head coach in Romeo Crenell for defensive coordinator and a former Notre Dame head coach in Charlie Weis for offensive coordinator (Haley was offensive coordinator in 2009).  These additions played some part in generating the turnaround year of 2010, but are now in flux again.

Dominik has had one head coach as well, Raheem Morris.  Dominik has had two offensive coordinators (the first fired before the 2009 season even started) and two defensive coordinators (Morris took over as defensive coordinator midway through the 2009 season).  These changes carried over to create the turnaround year of 2010 and appear to be staying in place.

A GM Should Be Able To Recognize Talent -- Wherever It Can Be Found

Pioli signed Matt Cassel in 2009 from New England to build his team around.  Matt Cassel finished 2010 with a passer rating of 93.0, 27 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.  Pioli went with a player he knew from his time in New England.

Dominik drafted Josh Freeman with his very first pick in the NFL Draft as GM.  Freeman finished 2010 with a passer rating of 95.9, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.  Dominik rolled the dice with a young man whom his rookie Head Coach had known from previous work.

Pioli has made 15 draft choices, of which 12 are still on his roster.

Dominik has made 13 draft choices, of which 11 are still on his roster.  One player of interest here is DE Alex Magee, Pioli's 2nd ever draft choice (3rd Round 2009) whom Dominik traded for in 2010.  In addition to Magee, Dominik snared an additional 6th round pick from Kansas City in the 2011 NFL Draft (KC also received a draft choice in the trade, but it's value is undisclosed).  Magee saw limited time this season as he transitioned from the Kansas City 3-4 to the Tampa Bay 4-3 defensive system so the value of this swap is hard to grade at this time.

Finally, how does the Eye for Talent of these men compare when picking from the same talent pool?  Through the time at training camp, teams trim their rosters from 80 players to 53, producing a hugh pool of available talent which creates a feeding frenzy just before the season begins.  How did these men handle the flood this season?

After training camp roster cuts in 2010, Pioli assembled the following practice squad:

• Ricky Price, promoted to regular roster, appeared in 7 games
• Tyler Palko, promoted to regular roster, appeared in 2 games
• Quinten Lawrence (2009 Draft Pick), promoted to regular roster, no stats
• Verran Tucker, promoted to regular roster, no stats
• Robert Greenwood, on practice squad for the season, now on a Chiefs futures contract
• Pierre Walters, on practice squad for the season, now on a Chiefs futures contract
• Darryl Harris, on practice squad for the season, now on a Chiefs futures contract
• Dion Gales, cut during the 2010 season

Pioli also signed the following waived players:

• Anthony Toribio, who appeared in 5 games

That's a total of 5 Regular Roster players generating 14 game appearances (no starts) and three futures contracts for additional development for Pioli's 10-win team.  Not bad at all.

After training camp roster cuts in 2010, Dominik assembled the following practice squad:

• Ryan Purvis, promoted to regular roster, appeared in 10 games with 2 starts
• Derek Hardman, promoted to regular roster, appeared in 9 games with 1 start
• Will Barker, promoted to regular roster, appeared in 3 games
• Dezmon Briscoe, promoted to regular roster, appeared in 2 games
• George Johnson, promoted to regular roster, no stats
• Vince Anderson, on practice squad for the season, now on a Buccaneers futures contract
• Brent Bowden (2010 Draft Pick), cut during the 2010 season
• Lee Robinson, cut during the 2010 season

Dominik also signed the following waived players:

• Kregg Lumpkin, who appeared in 11 games
• Ted Larsen, who appeared in 12 games with 11 starts
• LeGarrette Blount, who appeared in 13 games with 7 starts, running for 1,000 yards in 2010

That's a total of 8 Regular Roster players generating 60 game appearances (with 32 starts) and one futures contract for additional development for Dominik's 10-win team.  Incredible.

This has to be the most frustrating part of the equation for Dominik.  You would be hard pressed to find numbers like these for any GM in the past 15 years (a 1,000 yard rusher off the undrafted waiver wire?  Are you kidding?).

It seems the differences between these General Managers is obvious:  Dominik will roll the dice based on his experience; Pioli plays it close to the chest and conservatively.

Of course, Dominik has been in Tampa for more than a decade.  He understands how the Northeast drives the league, and Pioli was tapped into the mainstream Northeast media for years before heading to the middle of the country.

I understand the familiarity.  I just don't understand the blindness.

Buccanners Still A Team Very Much In Flux

The 2010 Season will be remembered for all the young players which stepped up and helped Tampa Bay attain it's first 10-win season since 2005.  Unfortunately, 2010 was also the first season the Buccaneers won 10 or more games but did not get into the NFC playoffs.

Winning 10 games does not necessarily mean the roster is stable, however great the success may feel.  In fact, for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, much less may be settled going into the offseason than is actually settled by the influx of young talent.

The table below shows the opening day and final day starting lineups for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  These are the men selected by their coaches as the players most likely at each position to get the team started quickly on game day.  Tampa Bay uses a heavy rotation of players, so this is not an indicator of playing time necessarily.  But it is still a barometer of what the coaches believe as far as who has the right experience/talent combination for playing time on Sundays.

Players who started both the first and last games of the 2010 season are highlighted in pewter:

	Opening Day (CLE)	Season Ender (@NO)
Offense
QB	Josh Freeman	Josh Freeman
WR	Mike Williams	Mike Williams
WR	Sammie Stroughter	Maurice Stovall
TE	Kellen Winslow	Kellen Winslow
FB	Earnest Graham
TE		John Gilmore
LT	Donald Penn	Donald Penn
LG	Keydrick Vincent ***	Ted Larsen
C	Jeff Faine *	Jeremy Zuttah
RG	Davin Joseph *	Derek Hardman
RT	Jeremy Trueblood	James Lee
RB	Carnell Williams	LeGarrette Blount
Defense
LE	Kyle Moore *	Tim Crowder
DT	Gerald McCoy *	Frank Okam
DT	Roy Miller	Roy Miller
RE	Ryan Sims ***	Micheal Bennett
SLB	Quincy Black *	Adam Hayward
MLB	Barrett Ruud	Barrett Ruud
WLB	Geno Hayes	Geno Hayes
LCB	EJ Biggers	EJ Biggers
RCB	Ronde Barber	Ronde Barber
SS	Sean Jones	Sean Jones
FS	Tanard Jackson **	Cory Lynch
* Finished the Season on Injured Reserve
** Suspended by the NFL
*** No longer with the team

Only 10 players started on the opening day roster and started the final game of the season (Graham and Gilmore probably bump the count to 11 as they are situational and both were healthy for both games).  The fallout is that half the starting lineup changed over the course of the season, with six of those changes due to injury (includes Vincent, who was cut as opposed to heading for IR) and only one player cut when healthy (Ryan Sims, a point-in-time moment for the current incarnation of the Buccaneers franchise).  Also note that EJ Biggers started the first game because Aqib Talib was suspended (Talib finished the season on IR as well).

Those 11 spots which went through a change during the season:  does the incumbent earn it back during the offseason?  Does the replacement keep the spot?

Each unhighlighted position is a storyline this offseason.  Those storylines will start to evolve once the rest of the NFL finishes their season, but we won't have our final answer until the next game.

Such a long time to wait!

Buccaneers Build Top 10 Rushing Attack

When Head Coach Raheem Morris and General Manager Mark Dominik took the reigns of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before the 2009 season, they painted a picture for the Buccaneer Faithful of a team with a powerful rushing attack and a solid defense.

They have made big progress towards both this season with a winning record to prove it.

With one game remaining, the Buccaneers have reached the top quarter of the NFL as far as production in the running game.  The chart below shows how the offense has made steady improvement running the ball since Week 5:

Currently, the offense has set a new high mark in the per game average at almost 128 yards/game, which ranks 7th in the NFL, ahead of teams like Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New England.  Tampa Bay also has a 7-game 100+ yard rushing effort streak still going (which includes teams like Baltimore and Atlanta).

The most impressive part of this evolving running attack is the number of different offensive linemen who have contributed to the effort:

Week 5 (New Orleans):  Center Jeff Faine suffers his first severe injury of the season, and in steps rookie Ted Larsen as Jeremy Zuttah moves to center.  Since then, the Buccaneers have not rushed for less than 90 yards in a single game.

Week 7 (Arizona):  Tackle Jeremy Trueblood and Guard Keydrick Vincent suffer injuries.  The Buccaneers promote G/T Derek Hardman off the practice squad and ask T James Lee to step in for Trueblood.  Lee has started ever since, and Hardman has worked his way into the starting lineup when Davin Joseph was injured during Week 11.

The changes have not all been up front, either.  After Kareem Huggins suffered a season ending knee injury during the New Orleans game, LeGarrette Blount emerged to start playing a larger and larger role in the running game.  Blount had a two-pronged effect:  not only was he effective, his production on first and second down started reducing the need for Josh Freeman to run for positive yards to keep drives alive.

This is all a very good sign for the near future of the franchise:  multiple contributors up front and in the backfield, plus the experience of Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams.

The running game is becoming a reliable part of the Buccaneers offense, opening up the playbook and providing even more options to offensive coordinator Greg Olson.  A reliable running game has been a strong part of the past success of the Buccaneers.

Looks like those times have returned!

Buccaneers: Comeback Team Of The Year

Is it the coaching which has turned a 3-13 team into a 9-6 Playoff Contender?  Is it the front office which found a huge group of young, talented players to remake the team?

It's hard to credit one without the other, so credit them both:  the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be the Comeback Team Of The Year for 2010.  And there are many reasons why.

How Far They Have Come

The 2009 season was as dismal as Tampa has suffered in many years, and the Buccaneers were joined at the bottom by several struggling teams.

Here are the 10 worst records from 2009:

Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10
Cleveland Browns 5-11    
Oakland Raiders 5-11    
Seattle Seahawks 5-11    
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12    
Washington Redskins 4-12    
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Detroit Lions 2-14    
St. Louis Rams 1-15

Here is the same list of teams for the 2010 season (with +/- wins in parenthesis):

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-6 (+6)
Kansas City Chiefs 10-5 (+6)
St. Louis Rams 7-8  (+6)
Detroit Lions 5-10  (+3)
Oakland Raiders 7-8  (+2)
Washington Redskins 6-9  (+2)
Seattle Seahawks 6-9  (+1)
Cleveland Browns 5-10  (0)
Miami Dolphins 7-8  (0)
Buffalo Bills 4-11  (-2)

The Chiefs and Rams have improved greatly as well.  The Chiefs already have a playoff spot reserved for them.  And the Rams, like the Buccaneers, can get to the playoffs this weekend.  However, the Rams cannot finish with a winning regular season record.  

Consider the opposition each of those three teams have faced:  the Chiefs are in the AFC West which has a combined record of 29-31 (.483) and the Rams are in the NFC West which has a combined record of 23-37 (.383).  The Buccaneers, however, are in the rugged NFC South, which has a combined record of 34-26 (.566) for the top win total in the NFC and is tied with the AFC East for the best divisional record in the NFL.

What They Went Through

The Chiefs have dealt with 7 injured players this season.  Of those players, one was active on opening day (Cameron Sheffield) and only one other has touched the field this season (Jackie Bates).

The Rams have suffered 11 injured players this season, eight of which have field time this season.  One (Na'il Diggs) was an opening day starter.

Buccaneers have dealt with 12 injuries as well as a suspension this season. Of those 13 players, six were opening day starters (which does not include Aqib Talib, suspended for the first game of 2010 but now on IR).  Three others played significant minutes this season.

So while all three teams have either reached the playoffs or are still in the hunt with one game remaining in 2010, the Buccaneers have overcome the most adversity, demonstrating prowess not only on the practice field through coaching but in the front office by finding the necessary talent to keep the team on a winning course.

Plus The Upside

This is very straightforward.  The Buccaneers started the season as the second youngest team in the NFL and will finish going away as The Youngest team in the NFL.  

For perspective on how young, the Buccaneer's current roster has just three players with eight or more years of NFL experience while Kansas City has seven and Saint Louis has nine.  From the other side of the experience ladder, Saint Louis has 14 players on their roster with less than two years of NFL experience while Kansas City has 16.  Tampa Bay has 24 players on their current roster with two or less years of NFL experience.

One thing the three teams do have in common is youth at quarterback, with Bradford in Saint Louis having a stellar rookie season, Freeman in Tampa Bay leading a strong sophomore NFL season, and Cassel in Kansas City having what it essentially this third NFL season as the lead signal caller. 

So not only are the Buccaneers much improved, in the playoff hunt, and very young, they also have a team built on youth which (hopefully) should maintain their competitive level for years to come.

Isn't that the definition of "comeback"?

Benn to IR

The injury bug has struck the offense this week, with Rookie WR Arrelious Benn sent to IR.

Benn was the third pick in the most recent Tampa Bay Draft.  After leaving the game yesterday, Benn was replaced by Maurice Stovall (who caught a touchdown) and rookie Dezmon Briscoe who was recently promoted from the practice squad.

"Race to 10" Now "Must Win"

A look at the remaining schedule of the 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 21-0 San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12

LOSS 17-10 Baltimore; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 28-24 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 

WIN 17-16 Washington; Buccaneers Ranked #12 

LOSS 23-20 Detroit; Buccaneers Ranked #15 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

Seattle (6-8)  #22

Upcoming:

@New Orleans (10-4)  #6

Nothing to predict now:  to reach 10 wins the Buccaneers must win their remaining two games.  Due to the top-heavy strength of the NFC this season, even if Tampa Bay wins their next two they still need the correct combination of other teams to lose to make the playoffs.

One year after 3-13 and a 10-win season may not be enough to make the playoffs.  That's harsh!!

Running Game In High Gear

During the brutal 3-13 season of 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still managed to rush for 100+ yards per game (101.7 ypg to be exact).  That resuted in a 1,627 yards on the ground.  Twenty-Two teams in the NFL generated more production by running the ball than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The story is very different this season.  So different, the Buccaneers eclipsed last year's rushing total last weekend, with two more games still remaining.  

As of today, Tampa Bay has run for 1,709 yards this season.  Well over 90% of those yards have been created by the four players with more than 10 carries this season:

Player	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry
LeGarrette Blount	164	777	4.7
Cadillac Williams	120	409	3.4
Josh Freeman	60	330	5.5
Earnest Graham	20	99	5.0

As a squad, the Buccaneers offense is showing some comparative muscle around the NFL as well:  Tampa Bay has moved into the Top 10 in the NFL in total rushing yards.  They are in a tight group of five teams who are averaging between 121 and 123 rushing yards per game, which includes (besides Tampa Bay):  Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and Minnesota Vikings.  Very good company considering the Buccaneers are the youngest team in the group by far!

Early in the season the Buccaneers running game was questioned.  Through all the injuries on the offensive line and with young, unproven receivers the Tampa Bay offense has developed a solid ground game.  This is a component of the vision expressed by General Manager Mark Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris when they took over at One Buccaneers Place -- a physical running attack.

It's hard to believe a 3-13 team last season can end up with a Top 10 rushing attack the next season, but the Buccaneers are on pace to make it happen in 2010.

Playoffs Situation: Wildcard Is The Only Option

The Buccaneers have moved to the cusp of the NFC Playoffs, and the stars and planets have aligned to possibly push the Buccaneers into an even tighter race by this time next week.

The chart below is a snapshot of "if the season ended today".  The (+) means the Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay finishes with the same record (because of a head-to-head win).  A (-) means the Buccaneers would lose the same tiebreaker scenario.  An asterisk (*) means a future opponent.

Remember that division winners, regardless of record, make the playoffs. Here is how the NFC breaks down as of today:

Division Winners With First Round Bye

11-2 (South) Atlanta Falcons (-)

9-4 (North) Chicago Bears

Division Winners With First Round Home Game

9-4 (East) Philadelphia Eagles

6-7 (West) St. Louis Rams (+)

Wildcards

10-3 (South) New Orleans Saints (-)

9-4 (East) New York Giants

Outside Looking In

8-5 (South) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8-5 (North) Green Bay Packers

6-7 (West) Seattle Seahawks *

Eliminated as Wildcard Possibility

5-8 (North) Minnesota Vikings

5-8 (East) Washington Redskins (+)

5-9 (West) San Francisco 49ers (+)

4-9 (West) Arizona Cardinals (+)

4-9 (East) Dallas Cowboys

3-10 (North) Detroit Lions *

1-12 (South) Carolina Panthers (+)

With two losses to the Falcons and only three games remaining, the Buccaneers are eliminated from winning the NFC South this season.  They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard team.

With three games remaining and the Giants having 9 wins, nobody with less than six wins can overtake the Giants and qualify for the playoffs as a Wildcard.  Some of the wildcard-eliminated teams can still win their division (49ers, Cardinals) and make the playoffs, but they will not take a spot from the Buccaneers.

Key Games

First and foremost, the Buccaneers must win at home against the Detroit Lions.  A loss would leave the Buccaneers' playoffs chances hanging by the thinnest of threads.

Secondly, The Buccaneers are only competing with four teams for a spot in the playoffs anymore:  the Saints, Giants, Packers, and Seahawks.  We need these teams to lose this weekend.  Their match-ups this weekend:

• New Orleans Saints AT the Baltimore Ravens
• New York Giants HOME against the Philadelphia Eagles
• Green Bay Packers AT the New England Patriots
• Seattle Seahawks HOME against the Atlanta Falcons.

Each team has a competitive game this weekend against another playoff teams -- all four have a respectable chance of falling the right way for the Buccaneers to gain on their competition.

Eliminators

Other playoff implications:

• If the Saint Louis Rams win this weekend, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals are completely eliminated from the playoffs this season.
• If the Seattle Seahawks win this weekend, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals are completely eliminated from the playoffs this season.
• If the Seattle Seahawks lose this weekend, they cannot qualify for the playoffs as a wildcard:  they must win their division (and cannot take a Wildcard position from the Buccaneers).
• If the Saint Louis Rams lose this weekend, they cannot qualify for the playoffs as a wildcard:  they must win their division.

This could end up being a watershed weekend for the Pewter Pirates.  The Buccaneers, Saints, and Giants play early games, the Seattle Seahawks player later in the afternoon, and the Green Bay Packers are the Sunday Night Football match-up.  So get everything done Saturday -- there is a full and important day of football coming on Sunday!

"Race to 10" Update: Week 14

A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 21-0 San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12

LOSS 17-10 Baltimore; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 28-24 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 

WIN 17-16 Washington; Buccaneers Ranked #12 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

Detroit (3-10)  #28

Upcoming:

Seattle (6-7)  #20

@New Orleans (10-3)  #3

Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 19-20

This is it.  Crunch time.  Meaningful games in December.  The Stretch Run.  The Playoff Push.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a tight race and cannot afford to do what the Green Bay Packers did last weekend -- lose to the Detroit Lions.  Can you believe that 3-13 last year could finish as high as 11-5 this season??

Using the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (which change weekly), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still on course for a 10-6 finish!  I wish I knew for sure it would be enough for a playoff spot but the NFC is top heavy this season -- it should be good enough!!

Buccaneers Can Finish Off Redskins This Weekend

Ahhh, Revenge -- A Dish Best Served Cold!

This weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 5-7 Washington Redskins and the architect of the Great Collapse of 2007, Redskins General Manager Bruce Allen.  Allen, who prefers 30+ year old quarterbacks (Brad Johnson, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia, now Donovan McNabb), has constructed one of the oldest rosters in the NFL with 18 players (33% of the 53-man roster) having 8+ years of NFL experience.  The list of long-tooths include the suspended Albert Haynesworth and three on injured reserve:  Clinton Portis, Mike Furrey, and Josh Bidwell (a punter on the Buccaneers roster in . . . 2007).  Allen was the General Manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2004 through 2007 and is best known for the 4 game losing streak which ended his tenure with the team (taking head coach Jon Gruden with him).

For comparison, the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have just three players on their roster with 8+ years of NFL experience.

There are several current Washington Redskins with familiar faces.  Buccaneer fans may remember Phillip Buchanon, who last played for the Buccaneers in . . . 2007 . . . and left as one of the poorest tacklers in team history.  They may also remember Anthony Bryant, a defensive tackle drafted in the 6th round by Allen in 2005 who appeared in four games over two years for the Buccaneers before being released.  Sadly, Tampa Bay fans will not get to see former Buccaneer Joey Galloway who was cut by Allen this past Thanksgiving weekend after last playing in Tampa in . . . yep, 2007.

Allen, who was unable to orchestrate a playoff win in his five years at the top of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers personnel department, finds himself in familiar territory 13 weeks into the season:  a somewhere-around-.500 record, injuries piling up, and the experienced players on his roster not forming a cohesive whole.

Allen made a splash by getting Donovan McNabb away from the Eagles last offseason, then resigning the 12 year veteran to a lucrative extension, generating preseason expectations of challeging the mighty Dallas Cowboys for supremacy in the NFC East.  Turns out Washington is challenging the Cowboys for the bottom of the NFC East instead, struggling to a 5-7 record (loss to Minnesota; one of only two teams to lose to Detroit) while the Eagles currently sit atop the division at 8-4, including a 59-28 drubbing of the Redskins back in Week 10.  Now, who got the better end of the deal?

The Buccaneers can stop the suffering of the Redskins fans this weekend.  A Tampa Bay win guarantees Washington a non-winning season.  Considering the NFC already has six teams with 8 or more wins this season (the Buccaneers will be the seventh should they beat Washington this Sunday), it is clear Tampa Bay can basically end the playoff run in Washington this Sunday, forcing Bruce Allen to again comb the free agent market for next year's solutions.  Too bad the Redskins are not in the NFC West, eh?

Still not convinced this can be the knockout blow for Washington on Sunday?  The Redskins already have tiebreaker losses to the Green Bay Packers (8-4), the New York Giants (8-4), and the Philadelphia Eagles (8-4).  Add the Buccaneers to the list once they finish their business this weekend.  Clearly, there will not be a scenario where an 8-8 Redskin team (and it is unlikely they reach eight wins this season in any case) can be a wildcard team in 2010.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a position which seems light years away from the 1-11 record at this time last season.  A position they can put to good use this weekend by eliminating the Washington Redskins from playoff contention and keeping pace in the NFC Wildcard Race.

Playoffs Watch: Week 14

The Buccaneers are down but not out after two tough losses.

The chart below is a snapshot of "if the season ended today".  The (+) means the Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay finishes with the same record (because of a head-to-head win).  A (-) means the Buccaneers would lose the same tiebreaker scenario.  An asterisk (*) means a future opponent.

Remember that division winners, regardless of record, make the playoffs. Here is how the NFC breaks down as of today:

Division Winners With First Round Bye

10-2 (South) Atlanta Falcons (-)

9-3 (North) Chicago Bears

Division Winners With First Round Home Game

8-4 (East) Philadelphia Eagles

6-6 (West) St. Louis Rams (+)

Wildcards

9-3 (South) New Orleans Saints (-)

8-4 (East) New York Giants

Outside Looking In

8-4 (North) Green Bay Packers

7-5 (South) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-6 (West) Seattle Seahawks *

5-7 (North) Minnesota Vikings

5-7 (East) Washington Redskins *

4-8 (East) Dallas Cowboys

4-8 (West) San Francisco 49ers (+)

3-9 (West) Arizona Cardinals (+)

2-10 (North) Detroit Lions *

1-11 (South) Carolina Panthers (+)

The Buccaneers obviously have their work cut out for them.  They are no longer in control of their own destiny and need other teams to help them by losing.  To get to the playoffs, the Buccaneers need the Green Bay Packers and either the New York Giants or Philadelphia Eagles to take a slide.  

The first Good Thing to help the Buccaneers will be when the Giants host the Eagles in Week 15.  The second Good Thing which can help the Buccaneers will be when the Giants visit the Packers in Week 16.

After a game at Detroit this weekend, Green Bay will travel to New England before the Giants game.  Their last game of the season is home against NFC North leader Chicago.  There is a good chance the Buccaneers can make up some games against Green Bay over these last four weeks of the season.

The New York Giants go to Minnesota this weekend, then play NFC East leader Philadelphia before their encounter at Green Bay.  Finally, the Giants finish on the road against the Washington Redskins.  It is within reason for the Giants to go 2-2 over these last four games of the season.

Finally, Philadelphia plays Dallas twice and hosts Minnesota along with their game at home against the Giants. Of the three, Philadelphia appears to have the least bumpy road ahead.

It's a lot to consider, but above all the Buccaneers need to get back on a winning streak!

"Race to 10" Update: Week 13

A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 21-0 San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12

LOSS 17-10 Baltimore; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 28-24 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

@Washington (5-7)  #24

Upcoming:

Detroit (2-10)  #28

Seattle (6-6)  #20

@New Orleans (9-3)  #3

Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 23-26

After two competitive losses, the Buccaneers are preparing for a road trip against the sub-.500 Washington Redskins.  The best path to 10 wins this season is to crush the next three teams, setting up a showdown in New Orleans against the Saints.

Using the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (which change weekly), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still on course for a 10-6 finish and an NFC Playoff birth!

Sea Change In Buccaneers Front Office

The first time something happens, it's an exception.  After that, it's a trend.

A new trend has started in the front office of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  And it involves three players who are no longer with the team:  Chris Pressley, Ryan Sims, and Sabby Piscitelli.

What ties these men together besides being former teammates?  They were all healthy when they were released.

FB Chris Pressley was cut back on October 24th.  He became expendable when the jack-of-all-trades Erik Lorig started taking snaps at fullback.  Lorig, who at various times has been associated with tight end and defensive end as well as fullback, provides high value due to his versatile nature.

DT Ryan Sims was cut November 24th.  He was replaced by Frank Okam, who had spent all of seven days on the Tampa Bay practice squad.  Sims is the senior of Okam by six years, but obviously there was something to Okam's game to merit such a change.  Watch for Okam to start contributing in the defensive rotation soon.

Yesterday, S Sabby Piscitelli was released (Nov. 30th).  Piscitelli was drafted in 2007 and played significant minutes in 2009.  It was thought he would be starting this weekend in place of injured SS Cody Grim who went down with a broken ankle and is lost for 2010.

P Chris Bryan could be considered a similar cut of a healthy player, but if you include all of 2009 and 2010 draftee P Brent Bowden who, after a full offseason, was placed on the practice squad and subsequently cut earlier this year, the position of Punter has been a two year project.  So in the context of this discussion it's not the same situation.

When a front office starts replacing healthy players it is a sea change for the franchise.  It means there is talent being released from other teams (or walking the streets) which are considered upgrades to experienced talent on your own team.  The sea change is your team is no longer depending on experience alone -- a certain level of talent has been achieved which makes keeping experienced players just for the sake of their experience no longer necessary.  Your team is now built on talent and player development, an exciting and very positive circumstance!  Let's look at each case:  

The Sims-for-Okam move could be a continuation of the getting younger theme General Manager Mark Dominik has been preaching since his ascension to the head role in the front office.  The change was quite sudden -- did Okam show some type of impressive fit for the interior of the Buccaneers defensive scheme?  Having recently brought in DT Al Woods after drafting three interior linemen in the past two drafts, the Buccaneers are really loading up on young defensive linemen.  Do the Buccaneers now believe they have more than enough talent on the defensive line to consider experience less necessary?  It appears so.

The Pressley-for-Lorig move could have an economic nature.  A more versatile player can provide help at multiple positions, eliminating the need for a specialist (and their salary) at a position which is not put to full time use on game day.  The other possibility is Tampa Bay will continue to move farther and farther from the more traditional fullback role used by the previous coaching staff and into more of a split back backfield.  But again, it appears talent is trumping experience.

The jury is out on the Piscitelli move; it's going to be very interesting to see who will start at the safety position this weekend at Raymond James Stadium against the Atlanta Falcons.

The overall message is that nobody is safe in their position on the roster anymore.  On top tier NFL teams this is a normal situation -- get better or go home.  In the case of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, more and more it seems this point has been reached.

To put it succinctly:  The Rebuild Is Over!

The signal is from now on the Buccaneers can pick up a talented player at any position, at any time, without position specific needs or areas of concentration.  It is a significant message for players like WR Maurice Stovall, LS Andrew Economos, LB Niko Koutouvides, and TE John Gilmore.  All have five or more years of experience and all have starting roles on special teams only.  Is that good enough anymore?

Certainly there will be more changes before the season is over.  But, clearly, a new phase in the thought process of the front office has started:  not just offseason veteran purges anymore -- in-season swaps are considered worthwhile.  The question is how much longer will the Buccaneers continue to drain the experience from the team to build up the talent level?  What is the tradeoff tipping point in Tampa Bay for experience versus talent?

Things are shaping up to be the most interesting offseason in Tampa Bay in over half a decade.

Cody Grimm and Davin Joseph Heading to IR

All teams deal with injury and the Buccaneers are no different.

Starting safety Cody Grimm left the field Sunday with a broken ankle which will not heal before the season is over.  He will be declared for injured reserve this week.

Davin Joseph also left the game on Sunday with an injury -- it may be the same nagging knee injury which has limited his time in recent weeks both on game day and during practice -- and he, too, will be heading to IR.

Certainly this will create a lot of activity in the Buccaneers front office this week and we'll be watching every step of the way.

"Race to 10" Update: Week 11

A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 7-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:
WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27
WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20
LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22
WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17
LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19
WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17
WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13
LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13
WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13
WIN 21-0; San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:
@Baltimore (7-3)  #4

Upcoming:
Atlanta (8-2)  #3
@Washington (5-5)  #17
Detroit (2-8)  #29
Seattle (5-5)  #20
@New Orleans (7-3)  #7

Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 34-26

The remaining schedule continues to win.  Only one of the last six teams the Buccaneers will face this year currently has a losing record.  The road ahead will not be easy.

The Buccaneers face one of the top teams in the AFC this weekend needing a win to keep pace in the tight NFC South.  This is perfect time for the Buccaneers to rise up and get a signature win to improve their potential playoff standing and serve notice to the NFC they will challenge for the postseason.

Using the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (which change weekly), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still on course for a 10-6 finish and an NFC Playoff birth!

GO BUCS!!

Sims Move Means Change Is Coming

Can the Buccaneers do it again?

Will General Manager Mark Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris pull yet another young star onto their already twinkling roster?

The release of Ryan Sims creates another roster void.  Dominik can either fill it from his own practice squad (i.e. Ted Larsen), can swipe a player from another team's practice squad (i.e. Al Woods), or can pull in a practice squad player or waived player from another team (i.e. LeGarrette Blount).  What will it be?

Considering the aggressive nature Dominik has shown by plundering the late round picks of other teams this season it could be the Buccaneers have identified a new target on another practice squad.  In the past, a dropped player has been replaced with another player at the same position.  This week, Dominik shuffled the practice squad, dropping G John Malecki (signed on October 26th) and adding even more size to the defensive line prospects with DT Frank Okam, a 6'5" 350 lb 5th round pick by the Houston Texans in 2008.  If Okam is the by-position replacement for the release of Sims, plus the offensive line getting healthy again, is the field wide open for a player at any position to join the roster?

It would appear the scenario is wide open.  Now that DE Alex Magee has reached the field and DT Al Woods has proven to be more than capable in the interior, the Buccaneers shave their numbers on the defensive line back to "practical" limits, making room for some new talent to get a chance.

Who could it be?  One possiblity is Brandon Carter, a 6'7" 344lbs offensive guard, who has been on the practice squad since camp closed in early September.  Defensive back Vince Anderson and wide receiver Dezmon Briscoe are also candidates for the same reasons.

There is no obvious choice.  With the offensive line getting healthier again the Buccaneers are currently not short numbers-wise at any position in particular.

Looks like Dominik can choose as he pleases.

Josh Freeman vs. Steve Young

About 25 years ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up a quarterback in the USFL supplemental draft.  He played 19 games over two years, then was traded away for a second and a fourth round pick to the San Francisco 49ers.  His name was Steve Young.

This weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fly out to San Francisco with a young quarterback who just completed his own 19 games of Buccaneer football.  

Steve Young is one of the best NFL quarterbacks to play the game.  He has three SuperBowl rings to prove it  (one as MVP) and won six passing titles during his career.  A stellar fourteen year career by any measure.  League MVP twice. 

Of course, Josh Freeman does not compare at this point having been in the NFL for less than two seasons.

But what about the start of their respective careers?

Certainly the game has changed.  This is not completely apples to apples. But it's fun nonetheless.  Both players started their NFL careers with Tampa Bay so, to start with, they have their NFL roots in common.

Steve Young threw 501 passes in his first 19 games as a Buccaneer, completing 267 for about a 53% completion percentage amassing 3,217 yards.  Josh Freeman has thrown 560 times in his first 19 games, completing 322 of them (about 57%) for 3,818 yards.

Josh Freeman has thrown 23 interceptions, two more than Steve Young with the same number of games.  On the other hand, Freeman has thrown 22 touchdowns while Young threw only 11 while he was a Buccaneer.

All those numbers are pretty comparable, and the minor differences are easlily attributed to how the play of an NFL game has changed (more passing, faster players, etc).  Young had James Wilder behind him in the backfield and threw to Jimmy Giles, Gerald Carter, Kevin House, and Calvin Magee while posting a 3-16 record over those nineteen games.

After just two years, the success-starved Tampa Bay fans considered Young a bust.  After Young's second season (1986) his coach, Leaman Bennett, was released.  In came Ray Perkins holding the #1 pick in the draft.  Out went Young (out west, to be exact) for two additional picks in the Buccaneer's 1987 NFL Draft which resulted in the selections of LB Winston Moss and WR Bruce Hill.  The rest is history.  A lot of history.  Much of it documented in the Hall of Fame.  None of it happened in Tampa.

This weekend, Josh Freeman takes a 10-9 record through his own 19 game NFL initiation out west to meet the team which landed Young all those years ago.  Freeman has a rotation of running backs and an extremely young group of receivers.  The fans in the (Tampa) Bay Area have slowly started to warm up to his presence in the backfield because of the solid improvement in his game this season.  Clearly Freeman is the future, which could not be said about Young during his stay.

Most impressively, the young Freeman holds up pretty well in comparison to the start of the career of Steve Young.  Not many teams with young quarterbacks (Jets, Lions, Rams, etc) can say the same.

The San Francisco 49ers have had their own share of trials and tribulations at quarterback recently -- how long has it been since the quarterback position in Tampa has been this settled?  I have no doubt those fans are restless with past succeses making them even hungrier for a return to winning.

So to the 49ers fans (and to unconvinced Tampa Bay fans, too) I say, hang in there -- as you work your way through a difficult season you may forget the lesson we here in Tampa learned over the course of about 12 years:  One Teams trash is Another Team's Treasure.

"Race to 10" Update: Week 10

A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

@San Francisco (3-6)  #25

Upcoming:

@Baltimore (6-3)  #5

Atlanta (7-2)  #2

@Washington (4-5)  #20

Detroit (2-7)  #29

Seattle (5-4)  #21

@New Orleans (6-3)  #6

Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 30-24

For the first time this season, the remaining schedule has skewed to one side, in this case to the win column.  Tampa Bay will have to finish strong for a chance at a postseason run.

The Buccaneers have continued to beat the teams they rank above, keeping the playoff drive in high gear.  This weekend they face another foe they need to beat.  Coming up after the run to the West Coast this weekend for a 4:15 PM Eastern game, the Buccaneers will face Baltimore at the newly adjusted 4:15 PM Eastern time slot before returning home for The Game Of The Year against Atlanta at Raymond James Stadium.  This is when the Buccaneers need to rise up for a signature win and improve their potential playoff standing.

Using the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (which change weekly), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still on course for a 10-6 finish and an NFC Playoff birth!

GO BUCS!!

Dominik Reloads Practice Squad

With the recent promotions of TE Ryan Purvis and T Will Barker from the practice squad to supplement changes to the 53-man roster, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were left with two open positions on the practice squad.

Not any more.

General Manager Mark Dominik and Pro Scout Shelton Quarles have been pressed into several hectic weeks shuffling players to the active roster to keep the young Tampa Bay Buccaneers at full strength through a rugged series of injuries, suspensions, and cuts.  Most recently, they have placed two new players on the practice squad.

Pittsburgh Plunder

On the day after the Buccaneers placed rookie defensive tackle Brian Price on injured reserve, the Buccaneers signed DT Al Woods away from the Pittsburgh Steelers practice squad to their regular roster (about one week ago).  While Woods joined the team and recorded his first NFL tackle in the same week last week, another move by Dominik went mostly unnoticed.  Dominik signed defensive tackle Doug Worthington (6'5", 292 lbs) to the practice squad.  Worthington was a 7th round pick out of Ohio State by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2010 NFL Draft -- yet another player chosen in the 2010 draft by another team who is now on the Tampa Bay roster. Worthington was not with the Steelers, but in essence, the Buccaneers have possibly stolen the future of the Steelers defensive line.  Worthington is a possibility at defensive end as well as inside.

This Week

This week, the Buccaneers signed Tyrone McKenzie (6'2", 245 lbs), an outside linebacker (he also played in the middle for part of his college career) who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2009 by the New England Patriots.  This season, McKenzie asked for the Patriots to release him to pursue opportunities with other teams.  McKenzie played high school football in Sarasota, Florida before leaving for Iowa State University.  While there, he was the second leading tackler in the Big XII (#8 nationally) as a sophomore.  McKenzie then transferred to South Florida and played outside linebacker for the Bulls.  Obviously McKenzie likes being in central Florida -- perhaps it's his motivation for asking out of New England?  You like players who want to be with you, so perhaps this is a perfect match.

Last weekend, the Buccaneers emerged from a showdown for the NFC South lead in better health than recent weeks, so there do not appear to be any impending practice squad moves this week.  These men are, however, in a great position to compete for a roster spot during the coming offseason.

If these picks turn out like other young players the Buccaneers have found recently, they could be playing meaningful NFL minutes sooner than later.

Playoffs Watch: Week 9

With a tough 21-27 loss to the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday, the Buccaneers slide down the playoff ladder just slightly.

The chart below is a snapshot of "if the season ended today".  The (+) means the Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay finishes with the same record (because of a head-to-head win).  A (-) means the Buccaneers would lose the same tiebreaker scenario.  Tampa Bay has played five NFC games so far this season (conference games are important!).

Remember that division winners, regardless of record, make the playoffs. Here is how the NFC breaks down as of today:

Division Winners With First Round Bye

6-2 (East) New York Giants

6-2 (South) Atlanta Falcons (-)

Division Winners With First Round Home Game

6-3 (North) Green Bay Packers

4-4 (West) St. Louis Rams (+)

Wildcards

6-3 (South) New Orleans Saints (-)

5-3 (East) Philadelphia Eagles

Outside Looking In

5-3 (South) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-3 (North) Chicago Bears

4-4 (East) Washington Redskins

4-4 (West) Seattle Seahawks

3-5 (North) Minnesota Vikings

3-5 (West) Arizona Cardinals (+)

2-6 (North) Detroit Lions

2-6 (West) San Francisco 49ers

1-7 (South) Carolina Panthers (+)

1-7 (East) Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay is now the top team on the outside looking in at the midpoint of the 2010 season.  While much improved over last year, the Buccaneers find themselves needing help to get back into a playoff slot.  Being tied with Chicago and Philadelphia, with Washington and Seattle right behind, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cannot afford a loss to a team they should beat.

The Buccaneers remaining schedule contains one game each against Atlanta, Seattle, New Orleans, Washington, Detroit, San Francisco.  From the chart you can see that both wildcard teams could easily come from the NFC South this season.

So much to consider, but first and foremost the Buccaneers need to get back on a winning streak!