2012 Summer of Change: The Departed

What an offseason, and we're still over a month away from training camps opening!

The Buccaneers have been as active this offseason as any in recent memory. There have been dozens of transactions including free agent signings, draft picks, college free agents, waiver pickups, and even street signings. Where is all this going and why? What can we determine are points of emphasis of Head Coach Greg Shiano and the new coaching staff? What can we find out about the current thoughts in the head of General Manager Mark Dominik? And finally, what can we see which shows us progress away from a repeat of last season?

Today we start with a list of who's gone. In order of occurrence:

The Departed

2012.01.02 - Head Coach and Defensive Coordinator Raheem Morris, Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson, and the entire coaching staff are dismissed.
This included everything, all the way to strength and conditioning coaches and their staff. It was, truly, a purge of nearly everything related to regular season execution at One Buccaneer Place. All that remained was the regular season roster of players. It was a powerful statement by the executives of the organization that performances like 2011 will not be tolerated. Remember, this was shortly after watching the team cap the season by starting off down 21-0 to Atlanta after the first quarter.

2012.02.15 - Albert Haynesworth released.
While not a surprise considering the locker-room baggage which has been hung on Haynesworth since leaving the Titans, I have since heard indirectly from a couple sources Albert's time in the weight room was not exactly impressive, both from a conduct and an effort standpoint. As such, it's doubtful his on-field play would have improved next season and he has not played a 16 game season in several years. This one was probably just a matter of time, and General Manager Mark Dominik and newly hired Head Coach Greg Schiano probably figured better sooner than later applied.

2012.03.13 - Free Agency Begins.
The following players became free agents and have not been resigned by the Buccaneers:

Earnest Graham - A longtime performer in the Buccaneers' backfield, Graham has had a solid career and may show up elsewhere this fall, but now is probably a long shot to return to Tampa Bay.
Kregg Lumpkin - Lumpkin was starting to come on as a third down back after coming to Tampa Bay from the Packers via the waiver wire a couple seasons ago. This season's draft, however, may mean the team does not require his services at this time. Certainly young enough to get a chance somewhere else this fall.
Geno Hayes - Hayes was picked up by the Chicago Bears on a one-year contract on April 19th. We'll dive deeper here another day.
Sean Jones, Corey Lynch, Elbert Mack - There has been big change in the defensive backfield this offseason. This is a big pile of experience to lose. More on this upcoming.
Micheal Spurlock - Spurlock was the veteran of the receivers group last season and was a solid return man. But the amount of youth behind him means he'll probably have to look for work elsewhere.
James Lee - The big offensive tackle made the starting lineup during the injury plagued 2010 campaign but could not hold on. We'll dive deeper here another day as well.
Josh Johnson - When the NFL and Players Union decided to remove the "third QB" rule in the new CBA, Johnson's value skyrocketed to the rest of the NFL. He's been a solid backup, and now he'll get to compete in San Francisco for his college coach Jim Harbaugh.
Jovan Haye - Haye left Tampa Bay for the Titans a few years ago. His return was mostly as a known commodity to fill injury holes. He may get a chance to get into training camp if recently signed vets along the defensive line do not work out. I would not count on it.

2012.03.14 - Jeff Faine released.
While this looked to be due to the signing of free agent G Carl Nick as far as timing, this is probably more about just plain old time. Faine has been outstanding for a long, long time. He has had a couple serious injuries the past two years plus the Buccaneers have been grooming Jeremy Zuttah for a while. This is probably the natural NFL process of where two players cross. In one aspect, it's good when the pipeline works. In another aspect, there is no way to know the value of Faine until the first game of the regular season (which is commonly known as "risk") and it will be an important position to watch all preseason.

2012.03.22 - Tim Crowder, Nick Reed released.
Crowder, a DE pulled from the Broncos waiver wire in 2009, was part of the early rebuilding of the DE squad by GM Mark Dominik. He played in 40 of 47 games for Tampa Bay (including 13 starts) and scored three or more sacks in 2009 and 2012. Only a fifth year player, Crowder may find it rough to return to the youthful Buccaneers squad. DE Reed signed in December as injury insurance; since being release he has signed with Minnesota.

2012.04.04 - Rudy Carpenter released.
Carpenter was the #3 guy on a team which is no longer planning on keeping three quarterbacks on the roster. The young undrafted college free agent (2009) showed occasional promise in very limited play but is not likely to return to Tampa Bay.

2012.04.10 - Tanard Jackson released.
This is the third safety released (see 2012.03.13 above) this offseason. With the youth on this team, his inability to stay out of the Commissioners office, and draft picks spent at the safety position the past two drafts, Jackson was facing an uphill battle.

2012.05.04 - John McCargo and Raymond Webber released.
DT John McCargo had a bizzarre Tampa Bay experience. The day after he signed (11/8) as a replacement for the injured Gerald McCoy he was cut to create a roster spot for Albert Haynesworth. The following week, McCargo was signed again after DE George Johnson was placed on IR. Around a month later, McCargo himself went on IR. It's worth noting he played in all four games he was on the roster but as a sixth year player he probably did not have a roster spot with all the youth Tampa Bay has playing in the defensive interior. McCargo has since signed with the Chicago Bears.
WR Raymond Webber was an undrafted college free agent last summer but spent the year on the disabled list after an injury in camp. He led the NCAA in receiving yardage his senior year at Arkansas -Pine Bluff.

2012.05.21 - Kellen Winslow traded to Seattle.
This could be the most unexpected event of the summer (so far).  Since signing one of the most lucrative Tight End contracts in NFL History, Winslow has been a favorite target of young QB Josh Freeman.  He gained over 725 yards per season and caught more than 65 passes each year.  Now he's gone, and in his place is a different veteran, Dallas Clark, the longtime target of Peyton Manning.  Former Head Coach Raheem Morris treated Winslow very differently from the rest of the team; could it be new Head Coach Greg Schiano was not willing to soft shoe with Winslow?  Regardless of the reason, this is another strong Schiano fingerprint on the roster.

The rookie mini camp on May 7th generated a large number of signings, leading into more typical offseason roster churn.  As the mini camp and OTAs start to show the coaches what they have and what they are missing there will continue to be a rotation of players in and out of One Buccaneer Place. Those are stories for another day. The players listed above represent a remarkable amount of talent and production for a team to release (mostly) prior to draft day.

How much change has occurred?  Today, exactly half the offseason roster of 90 players were not with the team last season.

It is going to be a very different looking Buccaneers team this fall.

Buccaneers Building Home Field Advantage

For years, NFL teams have enjoyed a home winning percentage of 55-60% on average (that's the bad included with the good).  Winning at home is a hallmark of a good team.  Winning on the road is the hallmark of a great team.

Since the beginning of the 2010 season, the Buccaneers have compiled a 14-10 record. Last season, the Buccaneers were 4-4 at home and an amazing 6-2 away from Raymond James Stadium. This season, Tampa Bay is 3-1 at home but just 1-3 away from home.


It's extremely odd for the youngest teams in the NFL to have a significantly better record away from home, and 2010 is clearly an exception to the norm in pro football. The 2011 season has swung the other way at the halfway mark.  But it's the home record that is most important.

A young team generally starts to win consistently at home before getting used to the travel and environment of away games.  The home record this season will mark the team's progress now that rebuilding is (or is nearly) over.

The remaining home games include 6-3 Houston this weekend (first game at home since October 16th), 4-4 Dallas on Saturday night, December 17th, and 2-6 Carolina on Christmas Eve.  It will be a sign of great progress if Tampa Bay can continue to win at home this season.

Another good sign:  the Buccaneers are 2-0 in the division at home this season.  Tampa Bay has not gone 3-0 at home against the division since 2008.  The formula to win a division is to win at home first, then learn to beat those same teams on the road.

It's all about experience and maturity now.  The Buccaneers can't get any younger, and winning out at home would be a great way to show progress this season.

Buccaneers Must Climb Hill To Playoffs

It's time for the Buccaneers to win at home!


A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 4-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, currently ranked 18th in the NFL.com Expert Consensus Power Poll: 


Past:
LOST 27-20 to Detroit
WON 24-20 against Minnesota
WON 16-13 against Atlanta
WON 24-17 against Indianapolis
LOST 48-3 to San Francisco
WON 26-20 against New Orleans
LOST 24-18 to Chicago
LOST 26-18 to New Orleans


Up Next:

Houston (6-3) #9


Upcoming:
@Green Bay (8-0) #1
@Tennessee (4-4) #20
Carolina (2-6) #23
@Jacksonville (2-6) #27
Dallas (3-3) #17
@Carolina (2-6) #23
@Atlanta (5-3) #14


Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 27-27


Based on the Power Poll, Tampa Bay should finish the 2011 season with an 8-8 record.  The swing games appear to be against Dallas, Atlanta, and this weekend's game against Houston.


The Playoff Picture

If the playoffs started this week:  

Division Winners

Green Bay Packers (8-0, NFC North)

- San Francisco 49ers (7-1, NFC West)

New York Giants (6-2, NFC East)

- New Orleans Saints (6-3, NFC South)

Wildcards

- Detroit Lions (6-2, NFC North)

- Chicago Bears (5-3, NFC North)

Outside Looking In

+ Atlanta Falcons (5-3, NFC South)

? Dallas Cowboys (4-4, NFC East)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4, NFC South)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, NFC East)

Washington Redskins (3-5, NFC East)

The rest of the NFC teams are more than three games out of the wildcard race at this time -- not eliminated, but getting there.  Teams with a minus(-) in front of their name own a tiebreaker over Tampa Bay by defeating the Buccaneers during the 2011 regular season.  Teams with a plus(+) in front of their name would lose a tiebreaker to the Buccaneers, and teams with a question mark(?) are still to come on the Buccaneers schedule.

Important games this weekend:

Buccaneers to WIN over Houston (of course!)

Detroit to WIN over Chicago

New Orleans to WIN over Atlanta

Buffalo to WIN over Dallas

Let's play football!

GO BUCS!!

Erratic Buccaneers: 12-4 or 8-8?

What a difference a week makes.


The Experts at NFL.com are faltering in their impression of the young Buccaneers after wild swings through the second quarter of the season.  Last week, 12-4 looked possible.  This week, Tampa Bay may not make the playoffs.


A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 4-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, currently ranked 17th in the NFL.com Expert Consensus Power Poll: 


Past:
LOST 27-20 to Detroit
WON 24-20 against Minnesota
WON 16-13 against Atlanta
WON 24-17 against Indianapolis
LOST 48-3 to San Francisco
WON 26-20 against New Orleans
LOST 24-18 to Chicago


Up Next:

November 6th @New Orleans (5-2) #3


Upcoming:
Houston (4-3) #11
@Green Bay (7-0) #1
@Tennessee (3-3) #21
Carolina (2-5) #23
@Jacksonville (2-5) #25
Dallas (3-3) #16
@Carolina (2-5) #23
@Atlanta (4-3) #13


Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 27-27


Based on the Power Poll, Tampa Bay should finish the 2011 season with an 8-8 record.  The swing games appear to be against Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta, which means Tampa Bay's playoff hopes are shaping up to go down to the wire again.

Buccaneers Poised for 11-win Season

One year ago, we started tracking the "Race for 10" (copyright Head Coach Raheem Morris) after week 4 and predicted the Buccaneers would finish 10-6 based on the NFL.com Power Poll of the 32 NFL teams.  Turns out the predictive powers were good, although declaring 10 wins enough to make the playoffs was, sadly and surprisingly, inaccurate.


So, we take the same path for 2011 and peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, currently ranked 9th in the NFL.com Expert Consensus Power Poll: 


Past:
LOSS 27-20 to Detroit
WIN 24-20 against Minnesota
WIN 16-13 against Atlanta
WIN 24-17 against Indianapolis


Up Next:
@San Francisco (3-1) Power Poll Rank: #15


Upcoming:
New Orleans (3-1) #2
Chicago (in London) (2-2) #18
@New Orleans (3-1) #2
Houston (3-1) #6
@Green Bay (4-0) #1
@Tennessee (3-1) #12
Carolina (1-3) #23
@Jacksonville (1-3) #26
Dallas (2-2) #19
@Carolina (1-3) #23
@Atlanta (2-2) #17


Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 28-20


Based on the Power Poll, Tampa Bay should finish the 2011 season with an 11-5 record.  That  should put the Buccaneers in the playoffs!

Playoff Fate Determined By Next Four Games

For the second season in a row, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off and running to a fast, 3-1 start.  The one loss?  The unbeaten Detroit Lions.  Not shabby at all.  And putting Atlanta one game into the rear view mirror is always A Good Thing. The other two wins?  Versus the winless Colts and winless Vikings.

It's a similar situation to 2010, when the Buccaneers beat Carolina, Cleveland, and Cincinnati but lost to Pittsburgh in the first four games.  Then came the statement by Head Coach Raheem Morris that this was the best team in the NFC.  Are the Buccaneers as confident this season?  Probably so.

Nonetheless, the next four games may decide if the Buccaneers miss the playoffs again this season:
1. Oct 9th -- West Coast tip to meet up with the 3-1 San Francisco 49ers after a short Monday Night Football week
2. Oct 16th -- Home against the co-NFC South leaders, the 3-1 New Orleans Saints
3. Oct 23rd -- Off to London to face the 2-2 Chicago Bears in Wembley Stadium

A Halloween bye week, then finally:

4. Nov 6th -- To the Superdome to match up for the second time in three games (and last time during the 2011 regular season) against the New Orleans Saints.

Every one of those four teams are in the NFC, and wins against NFC teams are crucial for late-season tie-breaker scenarios.  In addition, all are contenders to win their divisions which makes them excellent tuneups for playoff football.  Finally, Tampa Bay can bury the New Orleans Saints with two wins and place themselves all alone at the top of the NFC South.

In 2010, Tampa Bay lost two divisional games during the second quarter of the season, then played the rest of the season looking up from below at Atlanta and New Orleans.  In the end, they missed the playoffs.

The next four games will go a long way determining if this season finishes any differently than the last.

Morris Talked With Players? No Big Deal

In the world of sports blogging, there are those who report news and those who report anything.

JoeBucFan is certainly one of the latter.

The latest misstep by Joe-Falcon-Fan is "breaking" the news the Coach Raheem Morris has been in contact with players during the lockout.  But, with a cursory look around the NFL, this can be filed under "Not News".  Just like when he reported that Aqib Talib would be released by the team as soon as possible, but wasn't during the two days the NFL lockout was lifted (Is Joe truly an alter ego of Rick Stroud or Steve Duemig?  One has to wonder with the excess of attention they get from Joe).

And while other Not-As-Awesome-As-Yardbarker sports sites picked up Joe-Saints-Fan's blathering, I'm happy to report the 'Barkers saw it for what it was.

Let me demonstrate:
- 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has already been scolded by the NFL for talking to QB Alex Smith.
- Back in April, the NFL allowed the Dallas Cowboys to spend an evening together with coaches and staff at a fundraiser
- In May, the Dolphins got together as a team for a fundraiser with full knowledge of the NFL
- Just yesterday, the Kansas City Chiefs spent a day together helping the town of Joplin, Missouri, recover from a devastating tornado earlier this spring.

This has been going on for several months, and has been reported on as a story in and of itself.

If Coach Morris called three of his players, or they called him, it's far less than other teams.  If the NFL comes down on the Buccaneers it would be unfair at this point.  The league is going to have to allow a lot of slack if they want to start enforcing this now.  And they won't.  And everyone knows it.

Except Joe-Panther-Fan.

So Joe should think that Joe is not doing Joe any favors by making up news.

Does he hold a grudge against the team?  It is starting to look that way.

Morris Talked With Players? No Big Deal

In the world of sports blogging, there are those who report news and those who report anything.

JoeBucFan is certainly one of the latter.

The latest misstep by Joe-Falcon-Fan is "breaking" the news the Coach Raheem Morris has been in contact with players during the lockout.  But, with a cursory look around the NFL, this can be filed under "Not News".  Just like when he reported that Aqib Talib would be released by the team as soon as possible, but wasn't during the two days the NFL lockout was lifted (Is Joe truly an alter ego of Rick Stroud or Steve Duemig?  One has to wonder with the excess of attention they get from Joe).

And while other Not-As-Awesome-As-Yardbarker sports sites picked up Joe-Saints-Fan's blathering, I'm happy to report the 'Barkers saw it for what it was.

Let me demonstrate:
- 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has already been scolded by the NFL for talking to QB Alex Smith.
- Back in April, the NFL allowed the Dallas Cowboys to spend an evening together with coaches and staff at a fundraiser
- In May, the Dolphins got together as a team for a fundraiser with full knowledge of the NFL
- Just yesterday, the Kansas City Chiefs spent a day together helping the town of Joplin, Missouri, recover from a devastating tornado earlier this spring.

This has been going on for several months, and has been reported on as a story in and of itself.

If Coach Morris called three of his players, or they called him, it's far less than other teams.  If the NFL comes down on the Buccaneers it would be unfair at this point.  The league is going to have to allow a lot of slack if they want to start enforcing this now.  And they won't.  And everyone knows it.

Except Joe-Panther-Fan.

So Joe should think that Joe is not doing Joe any favors by making up news.

Does he hold a grudge against the team?  It is starting to look that way.

Buccaneers: Comeback Team Of The Year

Is it the coaching which has turned a 3-13 team into a 9-6 Playoff Contender?  Is it the front office which found a huge group of young, talented players to remake the team?

It's hard to credit one without the other, so credit them both:  the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be the Comeback Team Of The Year for 2010.  And there are many reasons why.

How Far They Have Come

The 2009 season was as dismal as Tampa has suffered in many years, and the Buccaneers were joined at the bottom by several struggling teams.

Here are the 10 worst records from 2009:

Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 6-10
Cleveland Browns 5-11    
Oakland Raiders 5-11    
Seattle Seahawks 5-11    
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12    
Washington Redskins 4-12    
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Detroit Lions 2-14    
St. Louis Rams 1-15

Here is the same list of teams for the 2010 season (with +/- wins in parenthesis):

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-6 (+6)
Kansas City Chiefs 10-5 (+6)
St. Louis Rams 7-8  (+6)
Detroit Lions 5-10  (+3)
Oakland Raiders 7-8  (+2)
Washington Redskins 6-9  (+2)
Seattle Seahawks 6-9  (+1)
Cleveland Browns 5-10  (0)
Miami Dolphins 7-8  (0)
Buffalo Bills 4-11  (-2)

The Chiefs and Rams have improved greatly as well.  The Chiefs already have a playoff spot reserved for them.  And the Rams, like the Buccaneers, can get to the playoffs this weekend.  However, the Rams cannot finish with a winning regular season record.  

Consider the opposition each of those three teams have faced:  the Chiefs are in the AFC West which has a combined record of 29-31 (.483) and the Rams are in the NFC West which has a combined record of 23-37 (.383).  The Buccaneers, however, are in the rugged NFC South, which has a combined record of 34-26 (.566) for the top win total in the NFC and is tied with the AFC East for the best divisional record in the NFL.

What They Went Through

The Chiefs have dealt with 7 injured players this season.  Of those players, one was active on opening day (Cameron Sheffield) and only one other has touched the field this season (Jackie Bates).

The Rams have suffered 11 injured players this season, eight of which have field time this season.  One (Na'il Diggs) was an opening day starter.

Buccaneers have dealt with 12 injuries as well as a suspension this season. Of those 13 players, six were opening day starters (which does not include Aqib Talib, suspended for the first game of 2010 but now on IR).  Three others played significant minutes this season.

So while all three teams have either reached the playoffs or are still in the hunt with one game remaining in 2010, the Buccaneers have overcome the most adversity, demonstrating prowess not only on the practice field through coaching but in the front office by finding the necessary talent to keep the team on a winning course.

Plus The Upside

This is very straightforward.  The Buccaneers started the season as the second youngest team in the NFL and will finish going away as The Youngest team in the NFL.  

For perspective on how young, the Buccaneer's current roster has just three players with eight or more years of NFL experience while Kansas City has seven and Saint Louis has nine.  From the other side of the experience ladder, Saint Louis has 14 players on their roster with less than two years of NFL experience while Kansas City has 16.  Tampa Bay has 24 players on their current roster with two or less years of NFL experience.

One thing the three teams do have in common is youth at quarterback, with Bradford in Saint Louis having a stellar rookie season, Freeman in Tampa Bay leading a strong sophomore NFL season, and Cassel in Kansas City having what it essentially this third NFL season as the lead signal caller. 

So not only are the Buccaneers much improved, in the playoff hunt, and very young, they also have a team built on youth which (hopefully) should maintain their competitive level for years to come.

Isn't that the definition of "comeback"?

Playoffs Watch: Week 8

After a 3-13 2009, who would have believed a Playoff Watch would officially begin in Week 8 of 2010?  Welcome as we track the playoff scenarios for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!

Think it's too early?  No way -- a distinct split is growing in the NFC, and the Buccaneers need to stay on the right side of it.  There are five teams with 5 wins, 5 teams with 4 wins, 1 team with 3 wins, and 5 teams with two wins or less.  If the 5-win and 4-win teams can continue to drive the 3-or-fewer-win teams down they can start forcing eliminations and improve their own playoff chances.

The Buccaneers are a case in point -- if Tampa Bay did not defeat the Arizona Cardinals last weekend, the then 4-3 Buccaneers would be on the outside looking in at 4-3 Arizona and 4-3 New Orleans due to head-to-head losses.  But Arizona is currently on the outside looking in instead.  Every game has dire consequences this time of year!

The chart below is a snapshot of "if the season ended today".  The (+) means the Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay finishes with the same record (because of a head-to-head win).  A (-) means the Buccaneers would lose the same tiebreaker scenario.  Tampa Bay has played four NFC games so far this season and owns the tiebreaker against three of them (which shows why conference games are so important).

Remember that division winners, regardless of record, make the playoffs.  Here is how the NFC breaks down as of today:

Division Winners With First Round Bye

5-2 (East) New York Giants

5-2 (South) Atlanta Falcons

Division Winners With First Round Home Game

5-2 (North) Green Bay Packers

4-3 (West) Seattle Seahawks

Wildcards

5-2 (South) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-3 (South) New Orleans Saints (-)

Outside Looking In

4-3 (East) Philadelphia Eagles

4-3 (North) Chicago Bears

4-4 (West) St. Louis Rams (+)

4-4 (East) Washington Redskins

3-4 (West) Arizona Cardinals (+)

2-5 (North) Minnesota Vikings

2-5 (North) Detroit Lions

2-6 (West) San Francisco 49ers

1-6 (South) Carolina Panthers (+)

1-6 (East) Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers remaining schedule contains two games against Atlanta, an one game each against Seattle, New Orleans, Washington, Detroit, San Francisco.  From the chart you can see that both wildcard teams could easily come from the NFC South this season.

Finally, it is pretty clear that the NFC West is not as strong this season as the other divisions, which means getting the #1 Wildcard Spot (where the Buccaneers are now) could provide the best matchup for the first round of the playoffs, since the top Wildcard plays at the worst Division Winner.

So much to consider, but first and foremost the Buccaneers need to keep winning!

TAMPA!!!

BAY!!

TAMPA!!

BAY!!

NFC South 6-2 vs. NFC West

Looks like the NFC South is still one of the two dominant Divisions in the NFC.

This season, the NFC South teams play all the NFC West teams.  So far, the NFC South is running away  in the head-to-head matchups with a 6-2 record halfway through the season:

Teams	Arizona	St. Louis	San Francisco	Seattle
Tampa Bay	W (38-35)	W (18-17)
Atlanta	W (41-7)		W (16-14)
Carolina		L (20-10)	W (23-20)
New Orleans	L (30-20)		W (25-22)

In a tight divisional race these matchups can make all the difference.  So far, the Buccaneers and Falcons are both 2-0 against NFC West opponents -- and they are leading the division at 5-2 each heading into their showdown this weekend.

Hopefully the Buccaneers can sweep the NFC West this season on their way to a playoff birth!

Rams Game Preview By Head Coach Raheem Morris

The Best 3 Minutes of Head Coach Raheem Morris this season (9:08 to 12:00):
Morris Press Conference, 10/20/2010 (Video)

Not sure I could have said it better myself!!

(And stay tuned until 14:25 in for a Bonus)

Walk The Draft With The GM

Get a review from the GM himself -- Tampa Bay General Manager Mark Dominik held a press conference after each draft session.  Hearing them in order gives a great sense of what went on during the draft.  Also, meet Gerald McCoy and hear Head Coach Raheem Morris' analysis of the full draft.  Enjoy!


Round 1:
Rd 1: Gerald McCoy, Defensive Tackle, Oklahoma
GM Mark Dominik Post-Round 1 Press Conference
Introducing Gerald McCoy

Rounds 2 and 3:
Rd 2: Brian Price, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
Rd 2: Arrelious Benn, Wide Receiver, Illinois
Rd 3: Myron Lewis, Cornerback, Vanderbilt
GM Mark Dominik Post-Round 3 Press Conference
 
Rounds 4-7:
Rd 4: Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, Syracuse
Rd 6: Brent Bowden, Punter, Virginia Tech
Rd 7: Cody Grimm, Safety, Virginia Tech
Rd 7: Dekota Watson, Linebacker, Florida State
Rd 7: Erik Lorig, Defensive End, Stanford
GM Mark Dominik Post Draft Press Conference
Head Coach Raheem Morris Post Draft Press Conference

2009 First Year Coaches

In 2009, first year GMs had first year coaches in Tampa Bay, Detroit, Kansas City, Denver, Cleveland, and St Louis.  For comparison, they are mixed in with the records of some past first-year-coaches:

John McKay 0-14 (1976, Tampa Bay)
Tom Landry 0-11-1  (1960, Dallas)
Steve Spagnuolo 1-15 (2009, St. Louis)
Jimmy Johnson 1-15 (1989, Dallas)
Jim Schwartz 2-14 (2009, Detroit)
Bill Walsh 2-14 (1979, San Francisco)
Raheem Morris 3-13 (2009, Tampa Bay)
Bill Parcells  3-12 (1983, NY Giants)
Norm Van Broklin  3-11 (1961, Minnesota)
Bud Grant 3-8-3 (1967, Minnesota)
Todd Haley 4-12 (2009, Kansas City)
Marv Levy 4-12 (1978, Kansas City)
Dick Vermeil  4-10 (1976, Philadelphia)
Don Coryell 4-9-1 (1973, St. Louis Cardinals)
Eric Mangini 5-11 (2009, Cleveland)
Andy Reid 5-11 (1999, Philadephia)
Lou Saban 5-9 (1960, Boston Patriots)
Bill Bellichek  6-10 (1991, Cleveland)
Tony Dungy  6-10 (1996, Tampa Bay)
Mike Shannahan 7-9, (1988, LA Raiders)
Jeff Fisher 7-9 (1994, Houston Oilers, first full season)
Vince Lombardi 7-5 (1959, Green Bay Packers)
John Gruden 8-8 (1998, Oakland)
Joe Gibbs 8-8 (1981, Washington)
Josh McDaniels 8-8 (2009, Denver)
Marty Schottenheimer 8-8 (1985, Cleveland, first full season)
Don Shula 8-6 (1963, Baltimore Colts)
Hank Stramm 8-6, (1960, Dallas Texans)
Dan Reeves 10-6 (1981, Denver)
Mike Tomlin 10-6 (2007, Pittsburgh)
Bum Phillips 10-4 (1975, Houston Oilers)
Bill Cowher  11-5 (1992, Pittsburgh)
John Madden 12-1 (1969, Oakland)
Chuck Knox 12-2 (1973, LA Rams)



This is pretty definite evidence that past performance does not dictate future results.

2009 Week 15 vs. 2010 Season

Fresh off a win against the Seahawks where the Buccaneers showed a running game and bend-not-break defense may not be the time to look toward next season, but we have to get started.  So much to research!  So first, some groundwork, in the form of two predictions and two statements along the lines of what do we know, for sure, right now?

Prediction:  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Will Win More Games in 2010 than in 2009
OK, so that's not something I know, for sure, right now.  It sure sounds bold, doesn't it?  I encourage you to join me in my optimism because with the results from Week 15 in the books, the 2010 opposition is determined.  Here are the teams the Buccaneers will play in 2010:

New Orleans (twice)
Atlanta (twice)
Carolina (twice)
Arizona
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Baltimore
Cleveland
Detroit
Washington

I believe, home or away, next year's team (actually, this year's also) stacks up favorably against Detroit, Washington, St Louis, Seattle, and Cleveland.  Granted, all these teams will have some top-flight draft choices joining their rosters, but I believe Tampa Bay has the strongest core to build on.  Depending on how the draft falls and free agents move I may not be scared by San Francisco, Carolina (twice) and Atlanta (twice) either.  The Buccaneers will undoubtedly still be young next year.  So, for now, I'll call "the floor" five wins next year.  And thus, my "bold" prediction.

The Buccaneers Will Draft No Lower Than Sixth in 2010
With two games remaining Tampa Bay can finish with no more than four wins.  A quick look at the overall league standings shows the best four wins can get is tied with the Washington Redskins for fifth-lowest win total.  The Redskins have played St Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, Carolina, and Tampa Bay this year, so the Bucs would "win" the opponent strength tiebreaker and draft after Washington.

Underclassmen and the Draft
We know that January 15th is the deadline for underclassmen to declare, and with three picks in the first two rounds, it's a major event for the Buccaneers this coming offseason.  Some have already thrown their hat into the ring while others are still ponding their options.   General Manager Mark Dominik has already indicated his belief that there will be a strong push of underclassmen coming to the NFL for this draft due to the prospect of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) containing a structured rookie salary schedule (old link, but a good rundown of the pros and cons).  If a lot of talented underclassmen declare then the best move for Tampa Bay could be to trade down -- a position I'll revisit after the full list of underclassmen declare. 

Raheem will be back
OK, again, I don't know this for sure.  But it would extremely disruptive to change coaches after 16 games, plus the players have not quit on him, plus there are flashes that his vision for this team is correct.  Last offseason, the front office was able to secure more talent to help the offense than help the defense.  If they can reverse that focus this offseason Coach Morris will have more and better tools to work with on defense -- and the defense has been improving.  Besides, having a coach for only one season would make the Buccaneers no better than the Redskins or Raiders, and we all know we're better than that!