Is Butch Davis The Turk for Tampa Bay?

There is one thing and one thing only at the top of the list of Bad Things in the minds of all Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans about the 2011 season:  the team played worse going down the stretch.  This is completely unacceptable for paying fans watching professional football players.

There is no doubt the downward spiral played a large choice in the firing . . . no, housecleaning . . . of the coaching staff at the end of last year.

I do not expect the changes to end there; Albert Haynesworth is the first to go (consider the timing, before any Organized Team Activity sessions).

Which brings me to thoughts I had watching the Butch Davis press conference last week.  Butch Davis was brought in to assist new Head Coach Greg Schiano as he gets his program installed.  But I think there is another possible role for Davis to play this offseason.

Put yourself in the General Manager's chair: your team softened down the stretch, clearly not responding to your coaching staff anymore.  Perhaps you have that sick feeling in your gut some players actually gave up on the team, the season, and the fans.  And you have the youngest roster in the NFL, so you don't want this to become a part of the fabric of the team.  You clean out the coaching staff because you see the relationship has gone toxic.  So you're sitting at One Buccaneer place with a solid young coach and some experienced position coaches making the transition to coordinators.

But there is still that sick feeling in your gut.  You've got to cut the rot from the roster after it stunk up the State of Florida last season.

You and your rookie coach can go through the film.  You can be pretty sure you know who needs to go.  But you want to be sure, absolutely sure.  And you want your new coach to have the respect of the players so there better be reasons the veterans on the team understand.

Enter experienced NFL coach Butch Davis. Davis spoke at his introductory press conference about his extensive experience in talent evaluation.  Remember, Davis has a couple rings from time with the Dallas Cowboys as coordinator under Jimmy Johnson, so this is a guy who knows what championship players are all about. You want a rubber stamp on who did and who did not give up last season?  Roll tape with your Pro Personnel Director Shelton Quarles, your new Head Coach, your new coordinators, and Butch Davis.  Now you have a room which can give you a bright light on the harsh decisions needed.

Make no mistake, Dominik will find many ways to make it perfectly clear to his team that last season was unacceptable.  He has to, and there is no doubt he knew it before the season ended.  Coach Schiano has already talked about T.B.A. (Trust, Belief, Accountability) and his plans to instill these core beliefs in the roster (press conference, 3:30 in).  Any player which "gave up" last season does not and will not fit this mold.  Those players have to go.

Butch Davis will help find them.

Possible free agent CB targets for Buccaneers

Why wait until the draft?

The first major milestone of the offseason will be when teams declare if they will use their franchise tag on February 20th.  Many of the top free agent players will be unable to negotiate with other teams because they will receive the franchise tag.

The top identified need for the Buccaneers this offseason (both by myself and within One Buccaneer Place) is cornerback.  There is a long list of potential free agent corners, but if we follow the philosophy of Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik, we are looking for a young player to grow with the rest of the youth on the Tampa Bay Roster.  I limited myself to the Top 20 available corners and ignored any player more than 27 years old.  This created a list of 8 prospects which I would consider the highest value targets fot the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

A solid, young corner is a valuable prospect in the NFL, so don't expect the current teams of these players to just let them walk.  In fact, the franchise tag could eliminate any of them.  What are the chances of one of them being franchised?  It depends on the other free agents on their team.

To analyse this I have listed each of the eight potential candidates and the other free agents (unrestricted unless noted by RFA) on their teams.  If these teams can't reach agreements with certain free agents they may use a franchise tag to avoid losing a solid performer. Each team gets one franchise tag, so will they use it on these young corners?  Let's check it out from youngest to oldest.

CB Lardarius Webb, Age 25, Ravens
Other free agents for the Ravens include RB Ray Rice, G Ben Grubbs, C Scott Birks, C Andre Gurode, DE Cory Redding, OLB Jarret Johnson, and ILB Jameel McClain.  Certainly Rice is worth a franchise tag.  Birks and Gurode are also starters up front.
   
CB Brandon Carr, Age 26, Chiefs
Other Chiefs free agents include QB Kyle Orton, RB Jackie Battle, RB Thomas Jones, RB LeRon McClain, WR Dwayne Bowe, TE Leonard Pope, and C Casey Wiegmann.  Bowe is the likely franchise tag recipient here unless the Chiefs can get an agreement in place.
   
CB Tracy Porter, Age 26, Saints
Other free agents for New Orleans include QB Drew Brees, QB Chase Daniel (RFA), WR Marques Colston, WR Robert Meacham, and G Carl Nicks.  Not only do the Saints have a lot of talented free agents this offseason, the Buccaneers can damage a division foe if they snare Porter.

CB William Middleton, Age 26, Jaguars
Free agents on the Jaguars this offseason include TE Zach Potter, DE Jeremy Mincey, OLB Matt Roth,     OLB Russell Allen (RFA), and FS Dwight Lowery.  The Jaguars had a rough season and are a team undergoing a serious rebuilding.  Keeping young talent is rule #1 for them this offseason, so it would not surprise me if Middleton gets the franchise tag.
   
CB Richard Marshall, Age 27, Cardinals
The Cardinals also have free agents OT Brandon Keith and DE Calais Campbell.  Campbell is widely considered to be the top DE prospect among the 2012 free agent crop.  If the Cardinals can get him under contact, Marshall is likely to get the franchise tag.
   
CB Terrell Thomas, Age 27, Giants
Other Giants free agents include WR Mario Manningham, OT Kareem McKenzie, G Stacy Andrews, ILB Chase Blackburn, and S Deon Grant.  As good as Manningham is, the Giants have a great defense in place and may use their franchise tag to hold onto the youngster Thomas.

CB William Gay, Age 27, Steelers
Steelers free agents include QB Dennis Dixon, QB Charlie Batch, QB Byron Leftwich, RB Mewelde Moore, WR Mike Wallace (RFA), WR Jerricho Cotchery, OT Max Starks, and G Ramon Foster (RFA).  The Steelers have significant cap issues to deal with before next year; they may not even use their franchise tag to avoid the costs which go with it.
   
CB Corey Graham, Age 27, Bears
Free agents on the Bears this offseason include QB Josh McCown, RB Matt Forte, RB Kahlil Bell, TE Kellen Davis, DE Israel Idonije, and DT Amobi Okoye.  Forte is a franchise candidate here; after that it could be Graham.

Looking at these lists, it appears the players the Buccaneers will most likely get a shot to bid for are Webb, Carr, Porter, and Gay.  Any of these young players would be a fantastic addition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive backfield.

Is Haynesworth done?

By the time Week 9 of the 2011 NFL season was in the books (a Tampa Bay loss at New Orleans), the Buccaneers were up against an interior defense thinned by the loss of DT Gerald McCoy.  General Manager Mark Dominik elected to claim from waivers a player he had been seeking since ascending to the top spot in 2009: Albert Haynesworth.  In fact, Dominik outbid the team Haynesworth signed with that year but the All-Pro defensive tackle went elsewhere.  By Week 9 of 2011, Haynesworth was back on the waiver wire after disappointing stints in Washington and New England.  This time, Dominik was alone in the quest for Haynesworth and brought him to Tampa Bay.  Now Dominik has to decide if he wants to keep Albert Haynesworth on his roster.

Upon arriving, Tampa Bay immediately gave Haynesworth his first start since the 2009 season.  Of the remaining eight games in 2011, Haynesworth played in seven and started six, recording 18 tackles and 2 assists (no sacks) which surpassed his output with the Redskins in 2010 and with the Patriots for the first half of 2011 combined. He did miss the week 16 game completely and did not start for the final game of the season.  From an output perspective, Haynesworth appeared to step up for Dominik and Tampa Bay.  A odd tidbit to consider: after the waiver wire Tampa Bay did not win a game with Haynesworth, while the Patriots did not lose a game without Haynesworth.

One drawback to signing Haynesworth up for additional service is the number of draft picks the Buccaneers have used on the defensive interior recently (three since 2009). All three have been productive players, along with free agent pickups John McCargo and Frank Okam:

	Total	Solo	Asst	Sacks	2011 Games
Roy Miller	36	20	16	0	16
Brian Price	24	20	4	3	15
Albert Haynesworth	20	18	2	0	7
Frank Okam	16	15	1	0	9
Gerald McCoy	11	10	1	1	6
John McCargo	5	3	2	0	4

This brings us to the first Big IF for resigning Haynesworth:  IF his production over the seven games he played in can be sustained over a 16 game season, he would record around 45 tackles, which would make him one of the 10 most productive Defensive Tackles in the NFL (based on league-wide stats for 2011). On the other hand, Tampa Bay is in the middle of rebuilding their team from the ground up, so every snap taken by Haynesworth is a snap lost by one of the young players.  Should Tampa Bay keep Haynesworth and bring the youngsters along more slowly?  Or is it likely that Haynesworth, having spent 10 seasons in the middle of trenches, cannot be highly productive over a 16 game season?

The second Big IF is Haynesworth's cost to the team.  The league minimum for a player with 10+ years experience in 2012 is $925,000.  That's not much more than the $700K or so the Buccaneers paid for half a year's service this year.  Would Haynesworth be willing to go year-to-year?  If not, how long?  And what price would he demand? And what expense to the salary cap can the team afford, with Josh Freeman, Roy Miller, and others coming up for contract renewal next year?

These are the decisions which try the soul of the NFL GM, and Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik has a lot to consider, particularly with a new coaching staff.

In the end, I do not see a roster spot available this fall for Haynesworth.  He could surprise everyone and show up to OTAs 30-40 pounds slimmer and agree to play for reasonable to discounted price but I doubt it.  A man with his career can leave the game with his head high, and I suspect that's just what Albert Haynesworth will do.

Dominik vs. The NFC Champions: Defense

General Manager Mark Dominik has stayed the path of building with youth and only adding the occasional free agent.  Let's see if this philosophy lines up with the NFC Champion New York Giants defense.

NY Giants Defense

The Defensive two-deep for the New York Giants:

DE Justin Tuck - Drafted (3rd Round, 2005); has only been a Giant

DE Dave Tollefson - Free Agent (Green Bay, 2007)

DE Osi Umenyiora - Drafted (2nd Round, 2003); has only been a Giant

DE Jason Pierre-Paul - Drafted (1st Round, 2010); has only been a Giant

DT Linval Joseph - Drafted (2nd Round, 2010); has only been a Giant

DT Rocky Bernard - Free Agent (Seattle, 2009)

DT Chris Canty - Free Agent (Dallas, 2009)

DT Jimmy Kennedy - Free Agent (Minnesota, 2011)

LB Michael Boley - Free Agent (Atlanta, 2009)

LB Jacquain Williams - Drafted (6th Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

LB Mathias Kiwanuka - Drafted (1st Round, 2006); has only been a Giant

LB Greg Jones - Drafted (6th Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

S Antrel Rolle - Free Agent (Arizona, 2010)

S Deon Grant - Free Agent (Seattle, 2010)

S Kenny Phillips - Drafted (1st Round, 2008); has only been a Giant

S Tyler Sash - Drafted (6th Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

CB Aaron Ross - Drafted (1st Round, 2007); has only been a Giant

CB Micheal Coe - Free Agent (Jacksonville, 2010)

CB Corey Webster - Drafted (2nd Round, 2005)

CB Brian Williams - Free Agent (Atlanta, 2011)

That is:

1 Undrafted Free Agent

9 Free Agents

11 Drafted

The drafted players breakdown like this:

4 First Rounders

2 Second Rounders

1 Third Rounder

3 Sixth Rounders

Again, there is more drafted talent than free agent talent in this group, but much closer to half and half.  There are more high-round draft picks on this side of the ball as well.  Two members of this unit were drafted in 2005, meaning it took seven years to get the right group together.

Clearly the New York Giants have leaned heavily on the draft to reach the SuperBowl in 2012.  Buccaneers General Manager Mark Dominik shares this philosophy, and it is a philosophy which should (accounting for coaching, retention, team chemistry, etc) allow the Buccaneers to compete with playoff teams in the near future.

Dominik vs. The NFC Champions: Offense

Congratulations to the New York Giants, NFC Champions for the 2011-2012 season!  I am very jealous, and want the George Halas Trophy in Tampa so badly.  Are the Buccaneers on track?

General Manager Mark Dominik has stayed the path of building with youth and only adding the occasional free agent.  Many fans have "Fantasy Football Syndrome", where free agents cost a few dollars, there is no salary cap, and statistics strictly determine the worth of a player.  This season, all Tampa Bay Buccaneer fans got a good look at another factor which Fantasy Football does not consider: team chemistry.

So, does real life NFL success match the philosophy of the Buccaneers GM?  Time to dissect the 2012 NFC Champion New York Giants and see what we can learn.

NY Giants Offense

The Offensive two-deep for the New York Giants:

QB Eli Manning - Draft Day Trade (2004); has only been a Giant

QB David Carr - Free Agent (from 49ers, 2010; 2nd stint with the Giants)

RB Brandon Jacobs - Drafted (4th Round, 2005); has only been a Giant

RB DJ Ware - Undrafted, 2010; has only been a Giant

FB Henry Hynoski - Undrafted, 2011; has only been a Giant

WR Mario Manningham - Drafted (3rd Round, 2008); has only been a Giant

WR Hakeem Nicks - Drafted (1st Round, 2009); has only been a Giant

WR Victor Cruz - Undrafted, 2010; has only been a Giant

WR Jerrel Jernigan - Drafted (3rd Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

TE Jake Ballard - Undrafted, 2010; has only been a Giant

TE Travis Beckum - Drafted (3rd Round, 2009); has only been a Giant

T Will Beatty - Drafted (2nd Round, 2009); has only been a Giant

T James Brewer - Drafted (4th Round, 2011); has only been a Giant

T Kareem McKenzie - Free Agent (from Jets, 2005)

T Stacy Andrews - Free Agent (from Seattle, 2010)

G Chris Snee - Drafted (2nd Round, 2004); has only been a Giant

G Mitch Petrus - Drafted (5th Round, 2010); has only been a Giant

G David Diehl - Drafted (5th Round, 2003); has only been a Giant

G Kevin Boothe - Free Agent (from Oakland, 2006)

C David Baas - Free Agent (from 49ers, 2010)

That is:

1 Trade

4 Undrafted (College) Free Agents

5 Free Agents

10 Drafted

Of the half the players on the New York Giants offensive 2-deep who were drafted, only Hakeem Nicks was a first round draft choice.  The draft choice breakdown is:

1 First Rounder

2 Second Rounders

3 Third Rounders

2 Fourth Rounders

2 Fifth Rounders

This is a unit built through the draft.  With only five free agents and one traded player out of 20 players.  Four of the five free agents are on the offensive line, while the fifth is the backup quarterback.

Half the drafted players were "middle round" picks, and all of the draft picks were selected in the fifth round or earlier.  None of the draft picks have more than eight years in the NFL; that is, this unit was eight years in the making.

The composition of this group does follow the philosophy of General Manager Mark Dominik, starting with drafting a quarterback to build around in Josh Freeman:  Eli Manning is the oldest draft pick on the Giant's two deep.  Building through the draft and going light on free agents can (and does) produce a championship squad. Clearly, the Buccaneers are on the correct path.  Sometimes this produces lightning in a bottle:  In 2007, the New York Giants won the SuperBowl with the lowest payroll in the NFL.

But this is only half the story.  Next up is a look at the defense.

New Year Brings New Buccaneers

In early January, the Buccaneers signed their 8-man practice squad to the offseason roster.  Among the group are three familiar names, two outside linebacker prospects, an experienced quarterback, and some bulk for the offensive line.  These men are under NFL Futures Contracts, meaning they do not actually take effect (or count against the roster) until the new league year begins in March.  They are (in alphabetical order):


Mike Balogun:  2nd year Linebacker from Oklahoma (6'0", 240 lbs).  Balogun appeared in two games for the Buffalo Bills in 2010.  Balogun spent time with the Cowboys in 2011 before arriving in Tampa.

Rennie Curran:  2nd year Linebacker from Georgia (5'11", 230 lbs).  Curran was drafted 97th overall (3rd round) by the Tennessee Titans in 2010 and was projected as one of the top outside linebackers in his class. He entered the draft after a junior year in which he led the SEC in tackles with 116.  He played in 9 games for the Titans in 2010, totaling 4 tackels and 3 assists.  He was released after the Titans training camp in 2011.


Colin Franklin: Rookie Tight End from Iowa State (6'6", 256 lbs).  Started 2011 season on the Buccaneers practice squad.  Was promoted to the active roster for two games before returning to the practice squad.  Franklin did not post any statistics while on the roster.

Ed Gant:  1st year Wide Receiver from North Alabama (6'3", 200 lbs; Fort Myers, FL). Gant started the 2011 preseason with Tampa Bay. In the fourth preseason game against the Redskins, Gant had 2 receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown (Buccaneer fans may remember the 96 yard catch and run for the touchdown).   Suspended first four weeks of 2010 season for violation of NFL policy on performance-enhancing substances (substance not named) while in the Cardinals training camp.

Mike Ingersoll:  Undrafted rookie Tackle from North Carolina (6'5", 300 lbs)


Brett Ratliff:  3rd year Quarterback out of Utah (6'4", 224 lbs).  Originally an undrafted free agent signed by the Jets, has spent time in Jacksonville, New England, and Tennessee; most recently with the Cleveland Browns.  Notably, he was one component of the Jets/Cleveland trade which landed Mark Sanchez with the Jets.

Chris Riley:  Undrafted rookie Guard from Illinois State (6'5", 305 lbs).  Most recently a Cincinnati Bengal.  Projected as an offensive tackle at the combine.

Jacob Rogers:  Undrafted rookie kicker from Cincinnati (6'4", 217 lbs). Was in camp for Buccaneers 2011 preseason (six punts versus Washington in preseason game #4) but did not make 53-man roster.  Rated #5 in his class by NFL Draft Scout.  Most recently was waived by the New Orleans Saints.

The Senior Bowl Is Not A Deadline

The next big front office milestone for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is rapidly approaching.

The senior bowl is an important chance for front office personnel to get their first good look at the talent which will be available in the 2012 NFL draft. It is also a place teeming with NFL coaching talent, and a great place for a new head coach to round out their staff.

Tampa Bay is running short on time to have a coach in place for this off-season milestone. But is it critical to wrap up the search for a head coach by then?

General manager Mark Dominik has come up on a bit of a fork in the road: you can either spend the Senior bowl week observing young talent to use on his upcoming fifth pick in the NFL draft, or he can spend a week interviewing a long line of possible coordinators and assistant coaches with his new head coach.

It is no secret that Dominik believes that building through the draft is the correct way to get Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl. So I suspect this deadline is artificial to the Bucs coaching search. If all the potential candidates have been interviewed and the right decision can be made before the senior bowl, that makes sense. However, if there are candidates on the remaining 4 NFL teams still playing in the playoffs or if the list is simply too long to get through before the Senior bowl week, it may make sense for Dominik to just go ahead and proceed as normal for the next week or so. The coaching search can resume after the senior bowl.

 So while some may think that the deadline is important, the countdown timer on the Senior Bowl homepage is not nearly as important as continuing to add talant to a roster where 7th round draft picks have been able to reach the 53 man roster each of the last 3 years.

Rule #1: Never Embarrass Your GM

The 2011 Buccaneers entered their bye week at 4-3.  They did not win another football game.  However, it's not about the fact they lost, but how they lost which will shape the offseason.

In short, the team forced the hand of General Manager Mark Dominik, not because he was disappointed, but because it was embarrassing.  Horribly embarrassing.  And the closer the team got to the end of the season, the more embarrassing the performances on the field.

Never, ever embarrass your boss.  Never.

Dominik moved swiftly less than 24 hours after the end of the last game of the season, promptly sweeping the entire coaching staff away.  And I mean every coach, right down and through to strength coaches and assistant coaches.  And ownership stood with him in approval of the move.  Gone are the last remnants of Jon Gruden's coaching staff (most prominently in the person of Greg Olson).  The search for a replacement started quickly with coaches known for playoff appearances, discipline, and experience.  The interview list hints at what Dominik perceives to be the problem:  lack of discipline, toughness, and power.  The team lacks a fine, steel edge and the Buccaneers are looking for someone with a grindstone.

But there is another component of this housecleaning still looming over One Buccaneer Place like an approaching thunderhead:  which players will also go?  Which players embarrassed their boss on the field?  Who fell apart in the locker room?  Who was mentally unable to compete for 16 weeks come anything or high water?

The molding of this, the youngest roster in the NFL, has taken a new turn.  No longer is talent level the issue (10 wins in 2010 left no doubt).  Now it's a matter of youth growing up and veterans standing up.  Those who couldn't (it's far too late for can't) will stand out easily to an experienced, winning coach.  They too will be swiftly cut away.  The only mystery is how many and which ones.

It's going to be one of the most intriguing off seasons in many years for the Buccaneers.