Free Agent cornerbacks update

Last month, I took a look at possible cornerback free agent targets for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the 2012 free agency period. The prospects of those players being removed from the market with the franchise tag were listed as well. All teams which have elected to use their franchise tags have assigned them, so here is the update:

CB Lardarius Webb, Age 25, Ravens

The Ravens franchised RB Ray Rice as expected, so Webb will be a free agent.

CB Brandon Carr, Age 26, Chiefs

As expected, the Chiefs franchised WR Dwayne Bowe so Carr will become a free agent.

    

CB Tracy Porter, Age 26, Saints

The Saints franchised QB Drew Brees, meaning Porter will be a free agent.

CB William Middleton, Age 26, Jaguars

The Jaguars, like the Buccaneers, franchised their outstanding placekicker Josh Scobee.  Middleton will enter the free agent market.

CB Richard Marshall, Age 27, Cardinals

The Cardinals, as expected, franchised DE Calais Campbell, so Marshall will become a free agent.

    

CB Terrell Thomas, Age 27, Giants

The Giants franchised P Steve Weatherford, only the fourth time in history a punter has been franchised.  As such, Thomas will enter the free agent market.

CB William Gay, Age 27, Steelers

The Steelers have not elected to use their franchise tag this season as they work themselves into a more cap-friendly position.  As a result, Gay will become a free agent.

    

CB Corey Graham, Age 27, Bears

As expected, the Bears franchised RB Matt Forte, leaving Graham available to the free agent market.

All these experienced young corners will be available for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to negotiate with when the Free Agency market opens on March 13th. Tampa Bay could be looking for up to two new corners to take the place of Aqib Talib and/or Ronde Barber this offseason. The question now becomes Value: which of these players can be signed for a price which matches their play on the field?

For comparison, the Atlanta Falcons have franchised CB Brent Grimes to the tune of $10.6 million.  Clearly these players will command some hefty payout.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers must be careful, however.  They have some pricey young players to re-sign next year (provided they confirm their worth). Giving up a young, promising, on-the-roster talent because the team signed a high-priced corner this year is trade-off which is hard to balance.  Expect the Buccaneers to be mentioned in negotiations for some of these players. 

Just don't expect them to overpay.

Possible free agent CB targets for Buccaneers

Why wait until the draft?

The first major milestone of the offseason will be when teams declare if they will use their franchise tag on February 20th.  Many of the top free agent players will be unable to negotiate with other teams because they will receive the franchise tag.

The top identified need for the Buccaneers this offseason (both by myself and within One Buccaneer Place) is cornerback.  There is a long list of potential free agent corners, but if we follow the philosophy of Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik, we are looking for a young player to grow with the rest of the youth on the Tampa Bay Roster.  I limited myself to the Top 20 available corners and ignored any player more than 27 years old.  This created a list of 8 prospects which I would consider the highest value targets fot the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

A solid, young corner is a valuable prospect in the NFL, so don't expect the current teams of these players to just let them walk.  In fact, the franchise tag could eliminate any of them.  What are the chances of one of them being franchised?  It depends on the other free agents on their team.

To analyse this I have listed each of the eight potential candidates and the other free agents (unrestricted unless noted by RFA) on their teams.  If these teams can't reach agreements with certain free agents they may use a franchise tag to avoid losing a solid performer. Each team gets one franchise tag, so will they use it on these young corners?  Let's check it out from youngest to oldest.

CB Lardarius Webb, Age 25, Ravens
Other free agents for the Ravens include RB Ray Rice, G Ben Grubbs, C Scott Birks, C Andre Gurode, DE Cory Redding, OLB Jarret Johnson, and ILB Jameel McClain.  Certainly Rice is worth a franchise tag.  Birks and Gurode are also starters up front.
   
CB Brandon Carr, Age 26, Chiefs
Other Chiefs free agents include QB Kyle Orton, RB Jackie Battle, RB Thomas Jones, RB LeRon McClain, WR Dwayne Bowe, TE Leonard Pope, and C Casey Wiegmann.  Bowe is the likely franchise tag recipient here unless the Chiefs can get an agreement in place.
   
CB Tracy Porter, Age 26, Saints
Other free agents for New Orleans include QB Drew Brees, QB Chase Daniel (RFA), WR Marques Colston, WR Robert Meacham, and G Carl Nicks.  Not only do the Saints have a lot of talented free agents this offseason, the Buccaneers can damage a division foe if they snare Porter.

CB William Middleton, Age 26, Jaguars
Free agents on the Jaguars this offseason include TE Zach Potter, DE Jeremy Mincey, OLB Matt Roth,     OLB Russell Allen (RFA), and FS Dwight Lowery.  The Jaguars had a rough season and are a team undergoing a serious rebuilding.  Keeping young talent is rule #1 for them this offseason, so it would not surprise me if Middleton gets the franchise tag.
   
CB Richard Marshall, Age 27, Cardinals
The Cardinals also have free agents OT Brandon Keith and DE Calais Campbell.  Campbell is widely considered to be the top DE prospect among the 2012 free agent crop.  If the Cardinals can get him under contact, Marshall is likely to get the franchise tag.
   
CB Terrell Thomas, Age 27, Giants
Other Giants free agents include WR Mario Manningham, OT Kareem McKenzie, G Stacy Andrews, ILB Chase Blackburn, and S Deon Grant.  As good as Manningham is, the Giants have a great defense in place and may use their franchise tag to hold onto the youngster Thomas.

CB William Gay, Age 27, Steelers
Steelers free agents include QB Dennis Dixon, QB Charlie Batch, QB Byron Leftwich, RB Mewelde Moore, WR Mike Wallace (RFA), WR Jerricho Cotchery, OT Max Starks, and G Ramon Foster (RFA).  The Steelers have significant cap issues to deal with before next year; they may not even use their franchise tag to avoid the costs which go with it.
   
CB Corey Graham, Age 27, Bears
Free agents on the Bears this offseason include QB Josh McCown, RB Matt Forte, RB Kahlil Bell, TE Kellen Davis, DE Israel Idonije, and DT Amobi Okoye.  Forte is a franchise candidate here; after that it could be Graham.

Looking at these lists, it appears the players the Buccaneers will most likely get a shot to bid for are Webb, Carr, Porter, and Gay.  Any of these young players would be a fantastic addition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive backfield.

Buccaneers Battle Themselves To Mediocrity

I really hate being 4-4 in the middle of the season.  It's like knowing what's in a present before you open it -- you're glad to have it, but there is no excitement in the moment.

Such is where all of the Buccaneers Nation stands today after a never-quite-out-of-reach game with the New Orleans Saints.  Having won in the Superdome the last two seasons, a 27-16 result feels pretty bad.  Worst of all, it's not so much that New Orleans was a significantly better team, it's more about how the Buccaneers can be their own worst enemy.  And two against one in the NFL is rarely a winning combination for the "one".

The Buccaneers had the ball first, but were not able to start the game with a first down.  New Orleans took the resulting punt and burned over four and a half minutes off the clock getting into field goal range. Saints kicker John Kasay then nailed the right upright to keep the game at 0-0.

Tampa Bay took over and ran at New Orleans with LeGarrette Blount. Blount carred the ball on five of the next six plays, taking the Buccaneers to 4th and 1 at the New Orleans 29 yard line.  Unfortunately, the Buccaneers did not convert on Bount's sixth run in the drive, and New Orleans took over on downs.

Five plays later New Orleans scored their first touchdown on a Drew Brees to Lance Moore touchdown pass to break out to an early 7-0 lead.

With 2:27 remaining in the first quarter, the Buccaneers offense imploded, with an Illegal Substitution penalty and two Offensive Pass Interference calls in the next 10 plays.  Tampa Bay ended up with fourth and four at the New Orleans 38 yard line -- outside of field goal range -- and punted the ball away.

Seven plays later, New Orleans scored their second touchdown on a pass from Brees to Sproles pushing their lead to 14-0.

Preston Parker returned the ensuing kickoff 45 yards from four yards deep in the endzone, and Tampa Bay set up at their own 41 yard line.  Three plays later they faced a 4th and four, but a New Orleans penalty converted the first down and the Buccaneers stayed alive, only to get a false start penalty before the next play from scrimmage.  As a result, Tampa Bay found themselves again in 4th and 4 three plays later and were forced to punt.

Pinned deep, New Orleans only converted one first down and punted from deep in their own territory.  Tampa Bay took over with 2:37 to go in the half but only managed to get to the New Orleans 22 yard line, where the ever dependable Connor Barth kicked a field goal to get the Buccaneers on the board and closing the score to 14-3.

The Saints countered, using 1:38 of the final 1:39 of the half to drive from their own 20 to the Buccaneers four yard line, kicking a field goal to push the margin back to 14 points at 17-3.

The Buccaneers opened the second half on defense, but CB Ronde Barber picked off a Brees pass giving Tampa Bay the ball at the New Orleans 33 yard line.  Yet again, the Buccaneers were not able to overcome themselves as a personal foul by RB LeGarrette Blount killed the drive.  Barth kicked another field goal and the score narrowed to 17-6.

New Orleans then consumed the next 6 minutes of the third quarter, driving for a touchdown and stretching the lead to the biggest margin of the game at 24-6.

The Buccaneers returned the favor with a possession which ran out the 3rd quarter and went down to 11:08 remaining in the game.  However, Tampa Bay again had to settle for a field goal after reaching the New Orleans 7-yard line making the score 24-9.

With 5:35 remaining in the game, the Buccaneers finally reached the end zone (with an important Defensive Pass Interference call along the way) with a five yard Josh Freeman to Kellen Winslow pass making the score 24-16.

The Saints received the ball with about five and a half minutes remaining in the game and went on another clock consuming drive, with the final dagger being a John Kasay field goal with 1:17 remaining.  The Buccaneers were unable to reach scoring territory and the game ended at 27-16.

Next up:  Tampa Bay's first home game in more than a month as the 6-3 Houston Texans come to Raymond James Stadium.

Buccaneers Final Roster: 2010

Here is how the roster finished the 2010 NFL Season, with the season ending 53-man roster first, then the Injured Reserve:

The Final 53-Man Roster

22	Asante, Larry	DB	ACT	6'0"	210	03/07/88	0	Nebraska
20	Barber, Ronde	CB	ACT	5'10"	184	04/07/75	14	Virginia
61	Barker, Will	T	ACT	6'7"	320	07/03/87	0	Virginia
10	Barth, Connor	K	ACT	5'11"	193	04/11/86	3	North Carolina
71	Bennett, Michael	DE	ACT	6'4"	274	11/13/85	2	Texas A&M
31	Biggers, E.J.	CB	ACT	6'0"	180	06/13/87	2	Western Michigan
27	Blount, LeGarrette	RB	ACT	6'0"	247	12/05/86	0	Oregon
89	Briscoe, Dezmon	WR	ACT	6'2"	207	08/31/89	0	Kansas
12	Carpenter, Rudy	QB	ACT	6'2"	212	04/15/86	2	Arizona State
60	Carter, Brandon	OG	ACT	6'6"	319	09/10/86	0	Texas Tech
96	Crowder, Tim	DE	ACT	6'4"	260	06/30/85	4	Texas
48	Economos, Andrew	LS	ACT	6'1"	250	06/24/82	5	Georgia Tech
5	Freeman, Josh	QB	ACT	6'6"	248	01/13/88	2	Kansas State
88	Gilmore, John	TE	ACT	6'5"	257	09/21/79	9	Penn State
34	Graham, Earnest	FB	ACT	5'9"	225	01/15/80	7	Florida
73	Hardman, Derek	G	ACT	6'6"	300	09/13/86	0	Eastern Kentucky
21	Harris, Dominique	DB	ACT	6'2"	213	04/14/87	0	Temple
54	Hayes, Geno	OLB	ACT	6'1"	226	08/10/87	3	Florida State
57	Hayward, Adam	OLB	ACT	6'1"	240	06/23/84	4	Portland State
29	Johnson, DJ	CB	ACT	6'1"	191	11/07/85	2	Jackson State
67	Johnson, George	DE	ACT	6'4"	265	12/11/87	0	Rutgers
11	Johnson, Josh	QB	ACT	6'3"	205	05/15/86	3	San Diego
26	Jones, Sean	SS	ACT	6'1"	220	03/02/82	7	Georgia
53	Koutouvides, Niko	LB	ACT	6'2"	238	03/25/81	7	Purdue
62	Larsen, Ted	G	ACT	6'2"	305	06/13/87	0	North Carolina State
77	Lee, James	T	ACT	6'4"	305	08/17/85	3	South Carolina State
23	Lewis, Myron	DB	ACT	6'2"	203	11/24/87	0	Vanderbilt
44	Lorig, Erik	FB	ACT	6'4"	275	11/17/86	0	Stanford
28	Lumpkin, Kregg	RB	ACT	5'11"	228	05/15/84	2	Georgia
41	Lynch, Corey	FS	ACT	6'0"	206	05/07/85	3	Appalachian State
33	Mack, Elbert	DB	ACT	5'10"	175	07/14/86	3	Troy
97	Magee, Alex	DE	ACT	6'3"	298	04/28/87	2	Purdue
1	Malone, Robert	P	ACT	6'1"	215	02/04/88	0	Fresno State
50	McKenzie, Tyrone	LB	ACT	6'2"	245	12/11/85	2	South Florida
90	Miller, Roy	DT	ACT	6'2"	310	07/09/87	2	Texas
78	Okam, Frank	DT	ACT	6'5"	350	10/16/85	3	Texas
84	Overbay, Nathan	TE	ACT	6'5"	270	01/04/87	0	Eastern Washington
87	Parker, Preston	WR	ACT	6'0"	200	02/13/87	0	North Alabama
70	Penn, Donald	T	ACT	6'5"	305	04/27/83	5	Utah State
80	Purvis, Ryan	TE	ACT	6'4"	260	05/08/86	1	Boston College
51	Ruud, Barrett	MLB	ACT	6'2"	241	05/20/83	6	Nebraska
81	Spurlock, Micheal	WR	ACT	5'11"	200	01/31/83	3	Mississippi
85	Stovall, Maurice	WR	ACT	6'5"	220	02/21/85	5	Notre Dame
18	Stroughter, Sammie	WR	ACT	5'10"	189	01/03/86	2	Oregon State
65	Trueblood, Jeremy	T	ACT	6'8"	320	05/10/83	5	Boston College
56	Watson, Dekoda	OLB	ACT	6'1"	240	03/03/88	0	Florida State
91	White, Stylez G.	DE	ACT	6'3"	270	07/25/79	4	Minnesota
24	Williams, Cadillac	RB	ACT	5'11"	217	04/21/82	6	Auburn
19	Williams, Mike	WR	ACT	6'1"	212	05/18/87	0	Syracuse
82	Winslow, Kellen	TE	ACT	6'4"	240	07/21/83	7	Miami (Fla.)
95	Woods, Al	DT	ACT	6'4"	309	03/25/87	0	LSU
79	Worthington, Doug	DE	ACT	6'5"	292	08/10/87	0	Ohio State
76	Zuttah, Jeremy	C	ACT	6'4"	308	06/01/86	3	Rutgers

The Final Injured Reserve List

50	Alston, Jon	LB	RES	6'0"	235	06/04/83	5	Stanford
17	Benn, Arrelious	WR	RES	6'1"	220	09/08/88	0	Illinois
58	Black, Quincy	OLB	RES	6'2"	240	02/28/84	4	New Mexico
69	Dotson, Demar	T	RES	6'9"	315	10/11/85	2	Southern Mississippi
52	Faine, Jeff	C	RES	6'3"	291	04/06/81	8	Notre Dame
72	Gilbeaux, Brandon	DE	RES	6'3"	270	06/09/87	0	Delaware
35	Grimm, Cody	FS	RES	6'1"	203	02/26/87	0	Virginia Tech
32	Huggins, Kareem	RB	RES	5'9"	198	05/24/86	1	Hofstra
75	Joseph, Davin	G	RES	6'3"	313	11/22/83	5	Oklahoma
93	McCoy, Gerald	DT	RES	6'4"	295	02/25/88	0	Oklahoma
94	Moore, Kyle	DE	RES	6'5"	272	10/25/86	2	USC
92	Price, Brian	DT	RES	6'1"	303	04/10/89	0	UCLA
25	Talib, Aqib	CB	RES	6'1"	205	02/13/86	3	Kansas
36	Jackson, Tanard	FS	SUS	6'0"	200	07/21/85	4	Syracuse

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2010 NFL Season with a 10-6 record but did not qualify for the playoffs.

Buccaneer Building Blocks: Defense

The 2009 Buccaneers are one of the youngest teams in the NFL.  Twenty-seven players (a.k.a. half) of the Buccaneers 53-man roster has less than 3 years of NFL experience.  With a 10-player 2010 draft and an offense that was retooled during the 2009 offseason a 2010 offseason focused on the defense appears to be in order (particularly since the game plan appears to be working). However, adding 10 rookies means the team will not get much older during the upcoming offseason.

Although there are plenty of exceptions, young teams generally have to make the playoffs and lose before they make the playoffs and win.  Said another way, teams with veterans who have been to the playoffs do better in playoff games than young teams who have been to the playoffs.

Assuming all this it follows that a realistic target for a deep-playoff-run-caliber-team is probably 2012 or 2013 for this franchise.  For the record, a winning record could happen next year and nothing says the team can't achieve ahead of schedule.  I'm just following the probabilities.

The average NFL career lasts just 3.5 years.  So three years from now (2012/2013) Tampa Bay will (probably) rely on players who have less than 5 years experience today.  It is important to note that a 5 year vet now (that is, after the 2009 season) could be an 8 year player with some nagging injuries in three years.  Also note this does not imply that all players over 5 years of experience in 2009 will be done and gone by 2012.  Can Barrett Ruud have a 9 year career?  Sure, but that's 50+ games prowling the interior colliding with tackles, guards, and running backs.  To think he'll be be the same then as he is now is positive thinking for sure, but probabilities lean hard against it.

To build a crystal ball for a look three years ahead, I took the most recent Buccaneers team depth chart and roster (both of which have been a moving target all year) and added the players from IR since they are generally under contract.  I ignored players on the practice squad as they are under a less-binding contract structure.  This provides a glimpse of the "core" of the offense.  These are the "young core" defensive players which will determine how quickly the Buccaneers get back to the playoffs:

LE - Kyle Moore (0), Micheal Bennett (0)
DT - Roy Miller (0)
DT - Dre Moore (1)
RE - Stylez White (3), Tim Crowder (3), Maurice Evans (0)
SLB - Quincy Black (3), Adam Hayward (3)
MLB -
WLB - Geno Hayes (2), Rod Wilson (3)
LCB - Aquib Talib (2), Derrick Roberson (1), Brandon Anderson (0)
RCB - Elbert Mack (2), E.J. Biggers (0)
SS - Sabby Piscatelli (3), Corey Lynch (2)
FS - Tanard Jackson (3), De'von Hall (0)
P - Sam Paulescu (2)

Big contributors which might be gone include:
Ronde Barber (13 years) - Can the ageless one continue to produce?  We all know the clock is ticking, but leadership in the defensive backfield is still needed very badly.
Chris Hovan (10 years) - This is a player which will deserve more scrutiny in the offseason.  He rarely misses games, is productive, and is a leader on a very young unit.  However, it is truly unbelievable to me that he has played 10 years in the middle of the trench and can still walk to his car after a game.  One almost hopes he'll retire soon before it's too late to enjoy the rest of his life.  I selfishly want him to play forever, but then again I sit in an easy chair on Sundays.  I'll stand, clap, and roar loudly for what he has given to my team when retirement happens.
Jermaine Phillips (8 years) - he has struggled mightily to stay healthy but ends the year on IR.  One can only wonder how much longer he can hold up.  Putting him in a linebacker role, even as a reserve, could extend his carrer and maintain his value.
Barrett Ruud (5 years) - He is the third piece of the leadership of the defense, the top tackler, and the play caller.  With no obvious candidate to back him up on the roster he's as valuable to the defense as Jeff Faine is to the offense.

It was absolutely a shock to me to not find a middle linebacker on the roster to back up Barrett Ruud.  Certainly this must be addressed.  The Buccaneers added Angelo Crowell last year in free agency but, based on his time in Buffalo, he is more of an outside linebacker.  This position cannot wait for additional help, and like tight end on offense, two younger players by next preseason would almost seem to be a requirement since even a one game injury to Ruud leaves a big hole.  The young linebackers already on the roster seem to be coming on strong.  Nevertheless, there is a concern here.

Up front, White, Miller, Moore, and Crowder are already getting a lot of reps.  Bennett was a steal from the Seahawks as a waiver pickup during the 2009 season.  And Evans keeps returning to the lineup over and over -- there must be something in that young man the coaching staff appreciates.  The concern here is the lack of depth on the interior which could be addressed this offseason as premium interior defensive lineman appear to be plentiful in the 2010 draft.

It youth at safety makes that position appear prepared for the next three years.  The 2009 season, however, did not support this conclusion.  Safety play seemed to be erratic through most of the season with many big plays given up.  Add to the fact that Tenard Jackson was suspended for four games and there are questions here.  The Jackson suspension was under the NFL substance abuse policy which covers addictive substances (painkillers, perhaps, but it has never been specified).  Addictions such as this are never really "cured" as anyone who has a recovering alcoholic in their family would know.  One more violation by Jackson will mean a full-year suspension.  Given this fact plus the 2009 performances and adding some additional young talent at this position would make sense, just to be sure.

Finally, top flight cornerbacks are rare.  Tampa appears to have one in Aqib Talib.  But nobody has stepped into the slot opposite Talib and won the position.  With four corners (besides Talib) on the roster with under three years of time in the NFL it is possible someone already on the roster may grow into the position.  Elbert Mack has the most experience and has contributed in 2009, Biggers spent the year on IR, and Roberson and Anderson were waiver wire pickups.  Like safety, adding some additional young talent to this position makes sense.


Overall, the young defensive core does not appear to be as deep and experienced as the young offensive core.  I feel confident that time and effort will be spent during the 2010 offseason on this side of the ball.

See also:  Updated with 2010 Practice Squad Signings