2010 Draft Pick #1: QB or not QB?

That is the question.  And more and more the answer seems to be "yes" -- but there could be a new question:  "which team?"

March 29th was a pivotal day for the 2010 draft as Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford performed at a second Oklahoma Pro Day in front of NFL scouts.  By all accounts it went very well.  With this strong performance, Bradford could have locked himself into the Saint Louis Rams #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft.  If the Rams do indeed select him it guarantees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers one of the top two defensive tackles in the 2010 draft.  The Rams also have a private session scheduled with Bradford on April 19th, a mere three days before the draft (Chris Mortensen, ESPN).

The Rams are not the only ones eying Bradford.  The Washington Redskins are also thinking quarterback, which is not news to Stowaway regulars, but for the first time there is tangible evidence.  The Redskins have scheduled a private workout for Bradford on April 15th (again, Chris Mortensen, ESPN).  This is the first direct evidence that the Redskins are considering a quarterback selection.  However, this could be because they expect Bradford to be on the board when they pick (with the Rams, Lions, and Buccaneers all bypassing quarterback selections for other players).

Yet the timing of the personal workouts is intriguing.  There may be more going on between the Rams and Redskins than first meets the eye.

It is a bit hard to believe that Saint Louis would be waiting until three days before the draft to make a determination on Sam Bradford and their top pick.  Exactly what would they see on April 19th that would be much different than March 29th?  The only information which could be gained would be a check on the rehabilitation progress of Bradford's throwing arm following season ending surgery last fall.  I have a lingering suspicion that it could be a quick health check before contract negotiations begin.

But there is that Washington workout -- what if the Redskins really like what they see?  They have Jason Campbell (6th year) as an established quarterback and have also acquired Rex Grossman (8th year) so they appear to have room for a young quarterback to sit back and learn (or recover) for a year or two.  Is it possible that the April 15th workout is a chance to consider moving up for that top position?  Could the Redskins be the team that jumps up to #1 to get Bradford?

Finally, Cleveland and Seattle have made moves that would appear to set them up for a quarterback selection and there is news regarding both teams:  Seattle traded San Diego for quarterback Charile Whitehurst (5th year) and Cleveland announced they will be looking for a quarterback in the 2010 draft (just not until the later rounds).  Seattle's actual action appears to remove their need while Cleveland's comments are pretty much worthless in the world of NFL predraft misdirection.  At this time of year you have to doubt what teams say and look at what they do.  Regarding the Bradford workout at Oklahoma, I offer this as "what they do" evidence:

"General manager Billy Devaney and coach Steve Spagnuolo were among the contingent sent by the St. Louis Rams, who have the first pick in next month's draft. Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, San Francisco 49ers coach Mike Singletary and Cleveland Browns president Mike Holmgren also watched."

-- Jeff Latzke  (The Associated Press)

So we have the usual suspects:  Rams, Seahawks, and Browns . . . wait, Browns?  Doesn't seem like they were very committed to looking at the "later rounds", does it?  Certainly some member of the Redskins attended as well -- probably just not a well-recognized name.  The San Francisco 49ers are a new twist.  Like Seattle, they also have two first round picks in 2010 (49ers:  #13 and #17; Seattle: #6 and #14).  Could the 49ers or Seahawks be the team that moves up to #1 and selects Bradford?

And where does that leave the other first-round-value quarterback, Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame?  His pro day is coming on April 5th.  As usual, all regional scouts will be attending.  What will be  interesting is if any coaches or front office personnel show up as well.

We are now just over four weeks out from the 2010 Draft.  Things will continue to heat up from now until that first pick.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers need one team, any team, to draft somebody but the top two defensive linemen so they will get the player they want and need.  It appears Sam Bradford has significantly improved his chances of being that somebody the Buccaneers are hoping for.

Free Agency: The Big Move That Nobody Is Talking About

While the signing of Reggie Brown is big news for Tampa Bay, the biggest news of the week for Buccaneers fans happened far from One Buccaneer Place.

Going largely unnoticed by the underperforming Tampa Bay media is a single move which may make all the difference to Tampa Bay when the 2010 Draft begins on April 22nd.  And while the Tampa media has finally figured out that the Rams will most likely pick a quarterback with the first overall pick in the 2010 Draft (Stowaway regulars have known this since February 1st), they have completely missed even bigger news.

Here is the biggest news of the week for Buccaneer fans:  The Seattle Seahawks traded Seneca Wallace to Cleveland for an undisclosed 2011 draft pick.  Yes, seriously.  No, I'm not insane . . . mostly.

This single move has many implications as to what those two teams are thinking.  Why would a Tampa Bay fan care what an NFC West and AFC North team, both of which pick after Tampa Bay, are thinking?   A great deal, I think.

Seattle has the #6 and #14 first round picks coming in the 2010 NFL Draft (as of today).  Cleveland has 11 picks in the 2010 NFL Draft, including #7 in the first round.  These teams have a form of currency that NFL General Managers crave -- draft picks in one of the deepest, most talented drafts in recent years.

Seneca Wallace was the Seahawks #2 quarterback.  The starting quarterback for Seattle has been the often injured Matt Hasselbeck who is entering his 12th NFL season.  With Wallace gone, Seattle is left with Mike Teel, 2009 5th rounder out of Rutgers, as their quarterback of the future.  Teel is 6' 3", 225 lbs, which are great physical numbers.  However, he did not take a single snap during the 2009 regular season which does not give any confidence to him being the answer at quarterback in Seattle.  There has been a coaching change in Seattle this offseason (Pete Carroll has arrived from USC) and the new coaching staff may have a high opinion of the youngster.  In that case, it seems that keeping Wallace while Teel develops would be prudent.  Since they did not keep Wallace, I believe it is more likely that Seattle is positioning to draft a quarterback in 2010.  This is very important assumption for the Buccaneers.  More on this a bit later.

On the other side of this transaction, the Cleveland Browns have not only acquired Wallace, an 8-year NFL veteran, they have also cut one half the two-headed monster they rolled out at quarterback last year.  Derek Anderson was simply cut and is now out shopping his talents as an unrestricted free agent.  There are also reports that Cleveland could be shopping Brady Quinn, the other "head" of that same quarterback monster as well (in a sense, there might be trade value in Brady Quinn -- which means he is more valuable than Anderson?  Yet Anderson started, did not start, then started again in 2009.  The mysteries of the Browns!).  This leaves new Cleveland General Manager Mike Holmgren with Seneca Wallace (8th year), Brady Quinn (4th year), and Brett Ratliff (2nd Year).  Ratliff took no snaps and did not see the field in 2009.  If the Browns are indeed shopping Quinn and trade him before the draft it would signal to me that Cleveland is also planning to seek a quarterback in the 2010 draft.

That's the groundwork.   The kicker is, according to CBS/NFLDraftScout.com (for example, and others agree), it appears there are only two first-round-quality quarterbacks available this year:  Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) and Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame).  Both sustained injuries during the 2009 campaign.  A very significant clue is that, post combine, these two men did not slide down draft boards.  Both attended the combine, but neither fully participated, electing to instead wait until their respective campus pro days with the suspected intent of having the most time possible to train and rehab.  However, even though they did not go through drills, they did go through the rigorous medical exams and appear to have come through clean.  So both these men have run over 90% of the rehab and recovery gauntlet and shown themselves to have franchise quarterback skills.

A quick check the top of the draft board as far as quarterback needs go sets the table:
1 - Saint Louis Rams:  Need a quarterback
2 - Detroit Lions:  Matt Stafford (2009 draft) appears to be their answer
3 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Josh Freeman (2009 draft) is their man
4 - Washington Redskins:  Is Jason Campbell the answer?  Todd Collins?
5 - Kansas City Chiefs:  Gave Matt Cassel a $63 million contract in 2009
6 - Seattle Seahawks:  Appear to be looking for a quarterback
7 - Cleveland Browns:  If Quinn is out, also looking for a quarterback

I believe that, should either of the two young quarterbacks fall to the Washington Redskins and new head coach Mike Shannahan at #4 he will be more than happy to make that pick.  All things staying as-is the pick would be Clausen.

I look at this chart and it seems pretty obvious -- if you want one of the top two quarterbacks this year you have to get the #1 pick away from the Rams or get ahead of the Redskins at #4.

And, after all that, here is why it matters to the Buccaneers:  if one QB goes in the #1 or #2 spot, one of the top two defensive linemen in the draft fall to Tampa Bay at #3.  And if Seattle or Cleveland uses that valuable draft currency to make a deal with Detroit (or if Washington decides to get into the mix and move up from #4), then quarterbacks could go #1 and #2 and the Buccaneers would have a clear board to take the player of their choice -- most likely their favorite of the two defensive linemen -- getting the best player to fill a team need and blend into an already existing solid young defensive core.  That would have to be the best possible result with the #3 pick.

That is why I think Seneca Wallace going to Cleveland for a 2011 draft pick is very big news for Tampa Bay Buccaneer fans.  Now you know, too, even if nobody (else) noticed.

Game Plan Revisited

During 2009 Week 15 a review of the overall direction of the offense posed the question: what type of offense will Tampa Bay have? At the time the Bucs were passing the ball on 60% of snaps making it appear the offseason would require some retooling of the offense.

There were only three games remaining on the schedule -- the Buccaneers went 2-1 over those games – but what type of team were they when the season ended?

vs Seattle

In the first half, Tampa Bay threw 12 passes and ran 13 times and went into halftime down 7-3. For the game, however, the Buccaneers passed 26 times and ran 34 times (14 passes and 21 rushes in the second half) and the Buccaneers won the game 24-7. Cadillac Williams finished with an average of 5.5 yards/carry.

vs New Orleans

The Buccaneers passed 18 times and ran 13 times in the first half on the way to being down 17-3 at halftime. For the game the pass/run was 31/34 (13/21 in the second half and OT) and the Buccaneers had their most memorable win of 2009 with a 20-17 overtime victory. Cadillac Williams averaged 5.4 yards/carry and ran the ball on 9 of 10 plays in OT getting into field goal range for the winning OT kick.

vs Atlanta

In the first half there were 14 passes and 11 rushes on the way to a 10-3 halftime deficit. In the second half the Buccaneers passed 17 times and rushed 12 (for a full game run/pass of 31/23), losing 20-10. In this game, Cadillac Williams averaged just 2.1 yards/carry.

In each game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had over 20 rushing attempts. In the two wins, Cadillac ran for over 5 yards per carry (he averaged 3.5 yards per carry in the other 2009 win against Green Bay). In the games won by the Buccaneers the offense ran more times than they passed over the whole game. But most importantly, they ran more than passed in their signature game of 2009. While not totally convincing, it does seem like over the final three games of 2009 Tampa Bay reinforced the blueprint for the power running game which can be a big key for future success. Hopefully that mentality carries through the 2010 offseason and keeps producing in 2011 and beyond.