Did The Buccaneers Use Their Bye Week To Plan For The Bengals . . . Or The Saints?

I've been wondering how the Buccaneers spent their bye week.  Sure, the coaches will tell you they are focused on the next game (Cincinnati Bengals).  This is something a coach says to keep his players focused on the right task:  win one game at a time.  But coaches are sly.  And they can be very sly at times.  There is nothing better for a young team than time to regroup.  More study, more time, more technique, and more healing all go a long way in a long season.  Add in the benefit of extra preparation time and you can expand the playbook a bit for the rest of the season.  The question is how to expand the playbook. Certain things work better against certain teams.  So where did the Buccaneers spend their time?

The next game is always the most important game for any young team, particularly one as young as the 2010 Buccaneers.  And this weekend's game against the Bengals is no less important.  The challenges are obvious:  Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are outstanding physical talents even though their mental composure is sometimes questioned. Cincinnati (2-2) beat Carolina 20-7 and Baltimore 15-10, but lost to Cleveland 23-20 and New England 38-24.  Buccaneer fans are familiar with Carolina and Cleveland, the "two" in the Buccaneers 2-1 record.  Certainly, this is a team the Buccaneers can compete with.  On the "against" side, this is the second road trip for this young team this year and you can expect a bigger, more hostile crowd in Cincinnati.  Cincinnati also represents the middle of a challenging early-season three game stretch for Tampa Bay with this game sandwiched between games against the Steelers and the Saints.  Winning this game means 3-1, a second strong road performance, and another notch in the growth of the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

However, the more important game for this season could be the Saints game at Raymond James Stadium the following week.  At 3-1, the Saints are currently at the top of the NFC South.  The most direct route to the playoffs is a division crown.  To win it, you have to win your home divisional games, then steal some road games.  The Buccaneers have already won at Carolina and so are on track thus far.  The Saints, however, have lost a division game -- a home game against Atlanta in fact.  This puts the Falcons in the driver's seat for now, and the Buccaneers must hold serve at home to keep pace. We all remember the overtime road win at the SuperDome late last season (the link is video, with a priceless moment, which will forever put a smile on my face -- you'll know it when it happens).  So we know Tampa Bay is certainly capable of winning this game, too.

Which is why you have to wonder if Head Coach Raheem Morris might have worked on some packages specifically needed to attack New Orleans this past bye week.  Certainly Coach Morris knows the formula.  Just as certainly, the Buccaneers and Saints know each other inside and out.  So any little unexpected wrinkle may go a long way towards a win.  And coaches, those sly coaches, they can work in this wrinkle here and that wrinkle there while practicing for one game, knowing full well it won't be used until the game after next.

Of course, reaching 4-1 makes the discussion irrelevant.  But would you risk a loss to the AFC Cincinnati Bengals to beat the NFC New Orleans Saints?  And how important is it to stay unbeaten at home?

Getting to 3-2 with a win over Cincinnati and a loss to New Orleans would put the Buccaneers at 1-1 in the division with a home divisional loss.  Such a scenario would firmly put the Atlanta Falcons in the lead of the divisional race.  

On the other hand, 3-2 with a loss to Cincinnati and a victory over New Orleans would bury the chance of New Orleans winning the division crown pretty deeply, turning the four team NFC South into a two horse race.  So perhaps a tiny bit of bye-week emphasis on New Orleans may have been in order.

Doing enough to beat the Bengals is good; putting in a little something for the Saints sounds good, too.  Really, really good.

It's not a slam on the Cincinnati Bengals.

It's just keeping your eye on the prize.

NFC South Tops NFC East For A Decade

NFC East fans, it starts here with two small victories then goes downhill -- prepare yourselves.  And believe me, only the NFC North and NFC West should be ashamed of how their division came through the 2000-2009 decade in the NFL playoffs.  NFC East fans, hold your heads up!  That's your first small victory.

Round 1
With 13 appearances in the first (or wildcard) round of the playoffs and a 7-6 record in those games, the NFC East tops the 8 appearance of the NFC South and their 4-4 record.  In the NFC East the Philadelphia Eagles have 5 first round game appearances.  In the NFC South the Buccaneers lead with four first round appearances.  And while it's an impressive count for the NFC East, this is not the round where champions are crowned.

Round 2
Every team in each division played in a 2nd round playoff game during the '00s.  And while the NFC East had a winning 7-5 record in their games, the NFC South was deadly with a 6-1 record in the same round. 

In the NFC East, Washington and Dallas combined for a pathetic 0-3 record in the second round for the decade.  The abysmal performance by those teams could not be offset by the Giants' 2-0 record in the second round.  In the NFC South each team had a 2nd round playoff game victory at least once (twice each for the Panthers and Saints).  Fortunately for the NFC East the Eagles had 7 appearances in this round with a 5-2 record providing the NFC East with more games in this round.  And the NFC East generated two teams in this round in the same year (2007, Giants and Cowboys) but, again, this is not where champions are crowned.

NFC Championship
In the NFC Championship Game, both the NFC East and NFC South captured three NFC Titles.  The NFC East had seven appearances by two teams:  Philadelphia had a 1-4 record and the Giants a 2-0 record.  The Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys did not get to the NFC title game during the past decade.  For the NFC South, each team had at least one appearance in the NFC title game during the first decade of the 21st century:  Tampa Bay 1-0 (after 2002 season), Panthers 1-1 (2003 and 2005 respectively), Saints 1-1 (2009 and 2006), and the Falcons 0-1 (after 2004 season).  Clearly, top to bottom, the NFC South performed at a higher level than the NFC East.

NFL Champions
Of the 10 NFC appearances in the Superbowl during the 2000-2009 decade, six of the ten teams were from either the NFC South or NFC East.  In fact, the appearances are equally divided with each division having three appearances each.  The NFC West also had three appearances.  The NFC North had just one.  No clear leader here.

As far as being World Champions, only two NFC divisions gathered a SuperBowl trophy for the NFC during the seasons from 2000-2009.  The other two divisions, the NFC North and NFC West, did not win a championship during the '00s.  The NFC East got one with the New York Giants taking out the 15-0 New England Patriots.  The NFC South, however, landed twice as many Lombardis - the Buccaneers after the 2002 season and the New Orleans Saints after the just-completed 2009 season.

When it comes to Champions, the NFC South was the Division of the Decade.

Overall, the NFC South had a 15-9 record in playoff games, a healthy 0.625 wining percentage.  The NFC East barely finished above .500 with an 18-17 record.

So, if your team makes the playoffs in 2010, you should hope they avoid NFC South teams for an opponent.  In fact, an NFC East team will at least get you about a 50-50 shot at winning -- better to hope for that instead.

Game Plan Revisited

During 2009 Week 15 a review of the overall direction of the offense posed the question: what type of offense will Tampa Bay have? At the time the Bucs were passing the ball on 60% of snaps making it appear the offseason would require some retooling of the offense.

There were only three games remaining on the schedule -- the Buccaneers went 2-1 over those games – but what type of team were they when the season ended?

vs Seattle

In the first half, Tampa Bay threw 12 passes and ran 13 times and went into halftime down 7-3. For the game, however, the Buccaneers passed 26 times and ran 34 times (14 passes and 21 rushes in the second half) and the Buccaneers won the game 24-7. Cadillac Williams finished with an average of 5.5 yards/carry.

vs New Orleans

The Buccaneers passed 18 times and ran 13 times in the first half on the way to being down 17-3 at halftime. For the game the pass/run was 31/34 (13/21 in the second half and OT) and the Buccaneers had their most memorable win of 2009 with a 20-17 overtime victory. Cadillac Williams averaged 5.4 yards/carry and ran the ball on 9 of 10 plays in OT getting into field goal range for the winning OT kick.

vs Atlanta

In the first half there were 14 passes and 11 rushes on the way to a 10-3 halftime deficit. In the second half the Buccaneers passed 17 times and rushed 12 (for a full game run/pass of 31/23), losing 20-10. In this game, Cadillac Williams averaged just 2.1 yards/carry.

In each game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had over 20 rushing attempts. In the two wins, Cadillac ran for over 5 yards per carry (he averaged 3.5 yards per carry in the other 2009 win against Green Bay). In the games won by the Buccaneers the offense ran more times than they passed over the whole game. But most importantly, they ran more than passed in their signature game of 2009. While not totally convincing, it does seem like over the final three games of 2009 Tampa Bay reinforced the blueprint for the power running game which can be a big key for future success. Hopefully that mentality carries through the 2010 offseason and keeps producing in 2011 and beyond.