Mirror, Mirror for Bucs and Jags

Last week we compared the rebuilding process done by General Manager Scott Pioli with the Kansas City Chiefs to the rebuilding done by General Manager Mark Dominik with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  This week, we'll compare Dominik to Gene Smith and his rebuild-in-progress in Jacksonville.  As you'll see, the two teams as well as the philosophies of their General Managers are mirror reflections.

As previously noted, Gene Smith inherited some valuable players at key positions, such as Quarterback and Running Back.  With these pieces in place, the Jaguars have spent their draft picks up front on both sides of the football:  in 2009, the Jaguars drafted offensive tackles with their first two picks, then added a defensive tackle in the second round.  In 2010, Jacksonville spent their first four picks on defensive linemen (another tackle and three defensive ends).  The results of this approach are, as all second year plans in the NFL seem to be, inconclusive at this point.

Let's compare: 

2009 First Round Picks:
Buccaneers:  Josh Freeman, QB
Jaguars:  Eugene Monroe, OT
Quarterback in Tampa had been a revolving door since the SuperBowl victory in 2002.  While Josh Freeman is the designated starter in his second year, he will not play for the rest of the preseason to nurse a broken bone in the thumb of his throwing hand.  Meanwhile, Jacksonville already had an established veteran in David Gerrard and so was able to select elsewhere.  Monroe started the Jaguars second and third preseason games in 2010.

2009 Second Round:
Buccaneers:  No Pick
Jaguars: Eben Britton, OT
Britton has been inactive for both the Jaguars preseason games this season but started opposite of Monroe against Tampa Bay 

2009 Third Round:
Buccaneers:  R Miller, DT, starter for all 2010 preseason games
Jaguars:  T. Knighton, DT, starter for all 2010 preseason games, and Derek Cox, DB, currently at the top of the depth chart at one cornerback position after a promising rookie season.

2010 First Round:
Buccaneers:  Gerald McCoy, DT, starter for all 2010 preseason games
Jaguars:  Tyson Alualu, DE, not active for the first preseason game but started the second and third.  Are you noticing the defensive draft patterns here?  Did I mention that these two francises have proud defensive histories?  Hold on, more on the way.

2010 Second Round:
Buccaneers:  Brian Price, DT,  not active for the first preseason game but started the second and third; Arrelious Benn, WR, currently mired in a suddenly deep receiver group.
Jaguars:  No pick.
This flips the 2nd round from 2009. 

2010 Third Round:
Buccaneers:  Myron Lewis, CB, hampered by injuries saw his first time in the 2nd 2010 preseason game and played in the third.
Jaguars:  D'Anthony Smith, DT, has not played in the preseason in 2010.

Some common attributes for new General Managers are starting to become apparent.  The first is getting a talented QB in position.  As evidenced by Dominik and Holmgren this past offseason, continuing with Pioli in KC and Smith in Jacksonville, all the newly appointed General Managers have either inherited a competent starting quarterback (Smith), gotten one from free agency (Holmgren, Pioli), or sought one through an early draft pick (Dominik, Holmgren again).  Other Class of 2009 General Managers are doing the same thing:  Denver traded for Kyle Orton and drafted Tim Tebow; Detroit drafted Matthew Stafford; St. Louis drafted Sam Bradford (QB).  Settling the Quarterback position seems to be job #1.  In many cases, these men are living up to the job (though not all, yet).

For the Buccaneers and the Jaguars, the next step was upgrading the defense.  Both teams have spent a great deal of draft picks up front on defense, and likewise you saw two young defenses play strong last Saturday night to a 10-6 at half, 19-16 final score.

In fact, these two teams specifically are starting to look very similar, with youth up front on defense, at the corner, and at the wide receiver positions.

Will these teams have similar success this season?  In less than two weeks we'll start to see the answer unfold!

Bucs vs Jaguars: Dominik facing another GM Classmate

Gene Smith of the Jacksonville Jaguars is not only the General Manager, he is the first General Manager ever in Jacksonville.  Mark Dominik is the fourth General Manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The two men have very similar backgrounds, as well as paths to their current positions.

Both started in the NFL in 1994 -- Dominik with the Kansas City Chiefs and Smith with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Dominik moved to the Buccaneers in 1995 after a year and a half of college scouting. 

Smith has only ever worked for Jacksonville, becoming director of college scouting in 2000 and director of College and pro scouting in 2008 before becoming General Manager in 2009.

Dominik started with Tampa Bay as a Pro Personnel Assistant and was promoted to Pro Scout in 1998, then to Pro Personnel Coordinator in 2000.  In 2001, Dominik became Director of Pro Personnel -- a role he maintained until 2009 when he became the fourth General Manager of Tampa Bay.

The common career paths, though, had nothing to do with what the men were handed when they got to the top of the ladder. 


Smith inherited Gavid Garrard, an established NFL quarterback who threw for nearly 3,600 yards and 15 TDs vs 10 INTs in Smiths first year.  Add in an established running game which garnered Maurice Jones-Drew almost 1,400 yards rushing and 15 TDs and you have something to build around.  Yet Jacksonville had a roller-coaster ride last year to 7-9, including a thrilling 24-22 win over the Jets (who went on to the AFC title game), but also including a 41-0 loss to Seattle, one of only five wins for the Seahawks in 2009.

Dominik used his first pick in the 2009 draft to stabilize his quarterback position.  Although he inherited running back Cadillac Williams, Williams was coming off two consecutive seasons of knee injuries and the associated surgury.  Dominik went to free agency to get Derrick Ward to solidify the running back position.  The Buccaneers suffered through a youth movement and 3-13 record in 2009, with a signature win over the SuperBowl champion New Orleans Saints on the road as the high point of the season, and a Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills, 33-20, as the low point.

So although these two GMs have much in common, they are at different points in shaping their teams.  Dominik released veterans and has built through the draft around a young core.  Smith inherited a veteran core, but needs to quickly build depth before the veterans start to decline.  One thing to watch during the preseason contest tonight is the mental toughness -- do the Buccaneers play mature?  Do the Jaguars play old?  Finally, both franchises (and both GMs as well) emphasize excellence on defense and physical play, so it should be a very rugged and fast game -- the best kind of NFL football!

2009 Jacksonville Draft Class

On Roster

Round 1, Pick 8 (8) Eugene Monroe     OT    6'5"      309      Virginia
Round 2, Pick 7 (39)     Eben Britton     OT     6'6"     309     Arizona
Round 3, Pick 8 (72)     Terrance Knighton     DT     6'3"     321     Temple
Round 3, Pick 9 (73) (From Packers through Patriots)     Derek Cox     CB     6'1"     189     William & Mary
Round 4, Pick 7 (107)     Mike Thomas     WR     5'8"     195     Arizona
Round 5, Pick 8 (144)     Jarett Dillard     WR     5'10"     191     Rice
Round 6, Pick 7 (180)     Zach Miller     TE     6'4"     233     Nebraska-Omaha
Round 7, Pick 41 (250) (Compensatory selection)     Rashad Jennings     RB     6'1"     231     Liberty
Round 7, Pick 44 (253) (Compensatory selection)     Tiquan Underwood     WR     6'1"     184     Rutgers

Digging Into Schedules: Tampa, Jacksonville On Opposite Ends

NFL General Managers spend a lot of time on risk mitigation.  Usually, the best way to limit risk is to control the factors you have influence over to create the best outcome for your team.  Unfortunately, one thing that cannot be influenced in the NFL is your schedule.

NFL teams play a rigidly defined schedule determined by where teams finish in their division the previous year.  For 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccanners opponent list was determined as follows:
- Two games each (home and away) against the other three teams in your own division (6 Games).  For the Buccaneers its two games each against Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans each year.
-  Play all teams in another division in your conference (4 Games) on a 3 year repeating cycle.  For Tampa Bay in 2009, that would be the NFC East teams:  Dallas, New York (Giants), Philadelphia, and Washington.
- Play the teams in the remaining two divisions in your conference who finished in the same position as you did in your division (2 Games).  This added Green Bay and Seattle to the Buccaneers schedule for 2009.
- Play all teams in a division in the other conference (4 Games) on a 4 year repeating cycle.  This added the AFC East to the Bucs schedule for 2009:  Buffalo, Miami, New England, and New York (Jets).

 There you have it -- your full 16 game schedule.  Game times and exactly which week is which game is (also) determined by the NFL based on TV contracts, the new Flex Scheduling for Sunday Night Football, etc.  So a GM cannot schedule weaker teams when rebuilding/reloading nor schedule better teams to exert dominance with a strong team.

The eight new NFL General Managers in the Rookie Class of 2009 have now played 11 of the 16 games on their respective schedules.  Since the formula is rigid some teams may have the benefit of a weaker schedule or the struggles of a stronger schedule.  Since Bye weeks are over and teams have played an odd number of games, this is a great time to evaluate the current season schedules and see who caught a break.

Here are the cumulative games won and lost by the team's opponents for the full season based on standings after Week 12, 2009:

• (1-10) Tampa Bay: 98-78 (.5568 Win Pct) with 9 games against winning teams
• (1-10) Saint Louis: 95-81 (.5398) with 7 games against winning teams
• (2-9) Detroit:  94-82 (.5341) with 9 games against winning teams
• (1-10) Cleveland:  94-82 (.5341) with 11 games against winning teams
• (7-4) Denver:  91-85 (.5170) with 10 games against winning teams
• (3-8) Kansas City:  91-85 (.5170) with 11 games against winning teams
• (7-4) New England:  90-86 (.5114) with 6 games against winning teams
• (6-5) Jacksonville:  84-92 (.4773) with 4 games against winning teams

 As you can see, the NFL GM Rookie class is having a rough time getting things going (which, of course, is why these teams have new General Managers in the first place).  2009 Rookie GMs own five of the 7 worst records in the NFL so far this year.  The other three teams are still in the playoff hunt.

GM Gene Smith of the Jacksonville Jaguars landed a bit of a break with their schedule this year (even in the same division as the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts).  As such, the Jaguars have assured themselves of improving on their 2008 record of 5-11.  This is the only schedule of the eight with a losing record and also has the lowest number of games against winning teams (4 at this point in the season).

On the other end of the spectrum, GM Mark Dominik was awarded the strongest schedule of the bunch in Tampa Bay (including division rival and 11-0 New Orleans Saints).  With most of the 9 teams with winning records behind them there is a chance Tampa Bay could finish the season strong if the team continues to improve.

A couple other interesting notes:

• Saint Louis and New England have the privilage of having both undefeated teams on their schedule (New Orleans and Indianapolis as of Week 12).
• Tampa Bay had their only game against another of the 2009 Rookie GMs when they played New England in London in Week 7.
• 2009 Rookie GMs went head-to-head four times on the schedules of Jacksonville (against Saint Louis, Kansas City, New England, and Cleveland) and Cleveland (against Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, and Jacksonville).

The rigid scheduling formula used in the NFL allows for rebuilding teams to match up with other down-on-their-luck teams.  This can give rise to the occasional worst-to-first team one year after a team finishes last in their divison.

For the Buccaneers of 2009 the schedule is both a blessing and curse.  The curse is being a youthful team playing against a strong schedule.  The blessing is a chance to see the youth on the team compete against some of the stronger teams in the NFL.  While the blessing does not seem so to fans, it does provide the coaches and personnel decision-makers with a very clear picture of where the team stands.  Hopefully that picture will become a map of the shortest route possible to get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to the playoffs.