2010 Draft: Quarterback and Offensive Lineman Off the Board

Here is the scenario:

#1 Pick:  Saint Louis chooses Sam Bradford, Quarterback, Oklahoma
#2 Pick:  Detroit chooses Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

I'm not the only one who thinks this is a possibility.

The only question with this scenario:  Would the bedlam in Oklahoma (top 2 picks!!) be crazier than the bedlam in the Buccaneers draft room?  The only two teams ahead of the Buccaneers go offense with picks for positions Tampa Bay is probably not concerned about this year.  They leave the board wide open with every top ranked defensive player available.  Certainly the pick would be Ndamukong Suh, DL from Nebraska, or Gerald McCoy, DL from Oklahoma (rumor has is that Suh would be preferred).  What could possibly be better?

Believe it or  not, there is one trade offer in this situation which may be worth considering. 

Pick #4 is the Washington Redskins and Pick #5 is the Kansas City Chiefs.  I suspect that the Redskins are interested in Jimmy Clausen.  I also suspect since Charlie Weis is the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs that the Chiefs would not pass on Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame) should he fall past the Redskins.  Clausen would have extra time to develop behind Matt Cassel in Kansas City.  Cassel is locked up in a very heavy contract until 2014, but that is just 4 seasons away.  Cassel took a beating last year and even if the Chiefs look to the 2010 draft for help on the offensive line it will take time to develop.  So holding a quarterback on the bench for a year or two would not be a bad idea and the Chiefs would be well served to pick up a good offensive linemen and ignore Clausen.  However, there are eight 2010 offensive line prospects thought to project into the first and second rounds.  Depending on how their draft board stacks up the Chiefs may be comfortable putting off an offensive line selection until either of their second round picks (36th and 50th overall).  If that is the case and they value Clausen highly they could try to trade up above the Redskins.  If the Redskins also value Clausen, they may try to trade up to assure they get the quarterback they want.

In this scenario, if the Bucs were to trade with Washington, they would still get their choice of the defensive linemen they covet, plus additional picks in who-knows-what rounds or years.  If this offer is on the table, this would be the no-brainer oprtion, adding twice as much bedlam to the Buccaneers war room.

Under this scenario, the Bucs could also opt to trade with the Chiefs and still have (at least) one of the top defensive linemen in the draft still available.  Again they would also gain some variety of additional picks.  If this offer is on the table it is a harder choice.  If the Chiefs do indeed want to take Clausen, this trade only makes sense if Tampa Bay considers the two defensive linemen absolutely equal.  If they prefer one over the other for any reason they would most likely not trade with the Chiefs.

If the Bucs trade with any other team they cast the dice on seeing either defensive lineman drop to them.  Is there any price that could make that happen?  Perhaps.  Keep in mind that the Seattle Seahawks and San Franciso 49ers have two first round picks this year and the New England Patriots have three second round picks this year.  In a draft this deep more picks can make for a very bright future.  I am quite sure it would have to be a very, very nice fat offer to move the Buccaneers.

All in all, this scenario is the best of all worlds for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  At worst they end up with the defensive lineman they want the most.  At best they pull a trade, get extra picks, and still get one of the top defensive linemen.  This is the situation I'll be hoping for all day on April 22nd.

2010 Draft: Quarterback and Defensive Lineman Off the Board

Worth A Look:  Check this video to hear from last year's #1 pick Josh Freeman and how he is approaching the offseason from Buccaneers Insider. (March 10, 2010, buccaneers.com).  

There are two possibilities in this scenario which make sense:

#1 Pick:  Saint Louis chooses Sam Bradford, Quarterback, Oklahoma

Possibility A:
#2 Pick:  Detroit chooses Ndamukong Suh, DL, Nebraska
Possibility B:
#2 Pick:  Detroit chooses Gerald McCoy, DL, Oklahoma

It's a very safe bet that Tampa Bay would gladly (and quickly) take the other top rated defensive lineman.  The Buccaneers are not looking for a quarterback.  And if you look at the youth on the offensive line, there is no need to go that way.  Plus, by many accounts, you are getting one of the top 2 players in the draft with the 3rd pick which means it's a good value.

The Buccaneers are not really a threat to pull the second rated quarterback off the board and in this scenario there may not be many trade offers.  I believe any offers would be by teams that want the other defensive lineman so there is no chance for the Bucs to drop back but still get what they are looking for.

If this scenario plays out, the Buccaneers will have the impact player they have been looking for and at a solid value.  What a fantastic way to start the draft with 10 more picks to go!

Digging Into Schedules: Tampa, Jacksonville On Opposite Ends

NFL General Managers spend a lot of time on risk mitigation.  Usually, the best way to limit risk is to control the factors you have influence over to create the best outcome for your team.  Unfortunately, one thing that cannot be influenced in the NFL is your schedule.

NFL teams play a rigidly defined schedule determined by where teams finish in their division the previous year.  For 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccanners opponent list was determined as follows:
- Two games each (home and away) against the other three teams in your own division (6 Games).  For the Buccaneers its two games each against Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans each year.
-  Play all teams in another division in your conference (4 Games) on a 3 year repeating cycle.  For Tampa Bay in 2009, that would be the NFC East teams:  Dallas, New York (Giants), Philadelphia, and Washington.
- Play the teams in the remaining two divisions in your conference who finished in the same position as you did in your division (2 Games).  This added Green Bay and Seattle to the Buccaneers schedule for 2009.
- Play all teams in a division in the other conference (4 Games) on a 4 year repeating cycle.  This added the AFC East to the Bucs schedule for 2009:  Buffalo, Miami, New England, and New York (Jets).

 There you have it -- your full 16 game schedule.  Game times and exactly which week is which game is (also) determined by the NFL based on TV contracts, the new Flex Scheduling for Sunday Night Football, etc.  So a GM cannot schedule weaker teams when rebuilding/reloading nor schedule better teams to exert dominance with a strong team.

The eight new NFL General Managers in the Rookie Class of 2009 have now played 11 of the 16 games on their respective schedules.  Since the formula is rigid some teams may have the benefit of a weaker schedule or the struggles of a stronger schedule.  Since Bye weeks are over and teams have played an odd number of games, this is a great time to evaluate the current season schedules and see who caught a break.

Here are the cumulative games won and lost by the team's opponents for the full season based on standings after Week 12, 2009:

• (1-10) Tampa Bay: 98-78 (.5568 Win Pct) with 9 games against winning teams
• (1-10) Saint Louis: 95-81 (.5398) with 7 games against winning teams
• (2-9) Detroit:  94-82 (.5341) with 9 games against winning teams
• (1-10) Cleveland:  94-82 (.5341) with 11 games against winning teams
• (7-4) Denver:  91-85 (.5170) with 10 games against winning teams
• (3-8) Kansas City:  91-85 (.5170) with 11 games against winning teams
• (7-4) New England:  90-86 (.5114) with 6 games against winning teams
• (6-5) Jacksonville:  84-92 (.4773) with 4 games against winning teams

 As you can see, the NFL GM Rookie class is having a rough time getting things going (which, of course, is why these teams have new General Managers in the first place).  2009 Rookie GMs own five of the 7 worst records in the NFL so far this year.  The other three teams are still in the playoff hunt.

GM Gene Smith of the Jacksonville Jaguars landed a bit of a break with their schedule this year (even in the same division as the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts).  As such, the Jaguars have assured themselves of improving on their 2008 record of 5-11.  This is the only schedule of the eight with a losing record and also has the lowest number of games against winning teams (4 at this point in the season).

On the other end of the spectrum, GM Mark Dominik was awarded the strongest schedule of the bunch in Tampa Bay (including division rival and 11-0 New Orleans Saints).  With most of the 9 teams with winning records behind them there is a chance Tampa Bay could finish the season strong if the team continues to improve.

A couple other interesting notes:

• Saint Louis and New England have the privilage of having both undefeated teams on their schedule (New Orleans and Indianapolis as of Week 12).
• Tampa Bay had their only game against another of the 2009 Rookie GMs when they played New England in London in Week 7.
• 2009 Rookie GMs went head-to-head four times on the schedules of Jacksonville (against Saint Louis, Kansas City, New England, and Cleveland) and Cleveland (against Denver, Detroit, Kansas City, and Jacksonville).

The rigid scheduling formula used in the NFL allows for rebuilding teams to match up with other down-on-their-luck teams.  This can give rise to the occasional worst-to-first team one year after a team finishes last in their divison.

For the Buccaneers of 2009 the schedule is both a blessing and curse.  The curse is being a youthful team playing against a strong schedule.  The blessing is a chance to see the youth on the team compete against some of the stronger teams in the NFL.  While the blessing does not seem so to fans, it does provide the coaches and personnel decision-makers with a very clear picture of where the team stands.  Hopefully that picture will become a map of the shortest route possible to get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to the playoffs.

2009 Detroit Draft Class

Round 1, #1:  Matthew Stafford, QB  (Overall #1)

Round 1, #20:  Brandon Pettigrew, TE  (Overall #20) (From Cowboys)

Round 2, #1: Louis Delmas, S (Overall #33) 

Round 3, #12: DeAndre Levy, OLB (Overall #76) (From Saints through Jets)

Round 3, #18: Derrick Williams, WR(Overall #82) (From Cowboys)

Round 4, #15: Sammie Lee Hill, DT(Overall #115) (From Redskins through Jets)

Round 6, #19: Aaron Brown, RB(Overall #192) (From Cowboys)
Round 7, #19: Lydon Murtha, OT(Overall #228) (From Jets)

Round 7, #26: Zack FollettOLB(Overall #235) (From Falcons through Broncos)

Round 7, #46: Dan GronkowskiTE (Overall #255) (Compensatory selection)