Playoffs? Playoffs???

(Jim Mora, the classic) Do no tune me out.  Give me a chance on this before you click away, OK?  Yea, it's just week #2 -- just take a moment consider what I'm laying out here.

 Continuing the trend from last week, here is the updated view of the rest of the 2010 schedule.  This week I've added the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (Tampa Bay is currently ranked #20):

WIN 17-14 Cleveland
WIN 20-7 Carolina 

Pittsburgh	2-0  #5
BYE
@Cincinnati	1-1  #12
New Orleans	2-0  #2
Saint Louis	0-2  #31
@Arizona	1-1  #27
@Atlanta	1-1  #13
Carolina	0-2  #29
@San Francisco	0-2  #23
@Baltimore	1-1  #8
Atlanta	1-1  #13
@Washington	1-1  #14
Detroit	0-2  #28
Seattle	1-1  #25
@New Orleans	2-0  #2

The remaining schedule continues to have a near-perfectly-even record of  13-15.

However, based on the expert rankings at this point (and I know they change every week), assuming losses to higher rankings and wins against lower rankings, the Buccaneers appear to be headed for an 8-8 record -- which usually indicates being a factor in the NFC Wildcard Playoff run!  Not that I would expect anyone in the Tampa Media to actually come out and say the team is talented.  But still, there it is!!

Obviously three strong team are lined up next for the Buccaneers.  Two of three are at Raymond James Stadium and two of three are against AFC teams.  Win all three, of course, and the Buccaneers are well on their way to one of the biggest turnarounds in team history.  But the "really extra big one" is the home game against New Orleans.  New Orleans is not only the lone NFC team in the next three games but is a divisional rival as well.  The playoff implications (future tiebreakers, division standings, division records) are immense.  The other two would be nice to have, but do not make or break (pardon the pun) the season.  If Tampa Bay can win at least one of the next three a 9-7 record is suddenly in reach -- which would virtually guarantee a least a tiebreaker for an NFC Wildcard birth in the 2010 playoffs.  More than one win in the next three provides cushion for unexpected injuries or poor performances (such a young team can mean a real roller coaster ride from week to week) later in the season.

So, as usual, I'll take the big step and make the big prediction. While others were predicting only 2 wins (see Quote Of The Week II) for 2010, I set the floor at 5 wins in 2010 on Week 15 of 2009.  Now I think 8-8 is within reach -- so move the floor up three notches!


Playoff implications in Week 3!  What could be better?

One Year Later: Youth Races Into Starting Lineup

What a difference a year makes in the life of a team in retooling mode.  No players drafted in 2009 made the starting lineup in the first game of the 2009 season.  By the end of the year only 2009 First Rounder Josh Freeman was in the starting lineup.

Fast forward to the opening day victory of 2010, and seven players from the 2009/2010 Drafts (i.e. since Mark Dominik and Raheem Morris took over) got the starting nod.  Throw in players acquired in the past 2 years (Keydrick Vincent, Kellen Winslow, and Sean Jones) and almost half the starting players have changed in just one season.

The players who have moved on took a lot of experience with them:  WR Micheal Clayton, WR Antonio Bryant, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, and DT Chris Hovan all had at least 7 years playing experience.

Names in italics are draft choices made by the Dominik/Morris front office:

Starting Lineups
	2009 Game 1	2009 Game 16	2010 Game 1
WR	80 M.Clayton	85 M.Stovall	19 M.Williams
LT	70 D.Penn	70 D.Penn	70 D.Penn
LG	76 J.Zuttah	76 J.Zuttah	68 K.Vincent
C	52 J.Faine	52 J.Faine	52 J.Faine
RG	75 D.Joseph	75 D.Joseph	75 D.Joseph
RT	65 J.Trueblood	65 J.Trueblood	65 J.Trueblood
TE	82 K.Winslow	82 K.Winslow	82 K.Winslow
WR	89 A.Bryant	89 A.Bryant	18 S.Stroughter
QB	7 B.Leftwich	5 J.Freeman	5 J.Freeman
RB	24 C.Williams	24 C.Williams	24 C.Williams
x	TE 86 J.Stevens	FB 45 C.Pressley	FB 34 E.Graham
LE	97 J.Wilkerson	96 T.Crowder	94 K.Moore
DT	98 R. Sims	98 R.Sims	93 G.McCoy
DT	95 C.Hovan	95 C.Hovan	90 R.Miller
RE	90 G.Adams	91 S.White	98 R.Sims
SLB	58 Q.Black	58 Q.Black	58 Q.Black
MLB	51 B.Ruud	51 B.Ruud	51 B.Ruud
WLB	50 M.McCoy	54 G.Hayes	54 G.Hayes
LCB	25 A.Talib	25 A.Talib	31 E.Biggers
RCB	20 R.Barber	20 R.Barber	20 R.Barber
SS	21 S.Piscitelli	21 S.Piscitelli	26 S.Jones
FS	23 J.Phillips	36 T.Jackson	36 T.Jackson

Many other players drafted by the current leadership also play a significant role with the team, including DT Brian Price, RB Kareem Huggins, and special teams standout SS Cody Grimm.

One can only wonder if, with another strong draft in 2011, will the team get still younger next year??

Buccaneers Strong Out Of The Gate

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did all the things their Head Coach Raheem Morris and General Manager Mark Dominik have wanted in winning 17-14 over the Cleveland Browns to open the 2010 Season with a 1-0 record.

Lots of good things showed up in the statistics pointing toward a team built as promised:
- Tampa Bay outgained the Browns on the ground 119yds to 104yds, with a solid 4.0 yards per carry.
- The strong ground performance showed in time of possession, with the Bucs owning the ball for 32m 21sec of game time compared to 27m 39sec for Cleveland
- Tampa also rushed 30 times and passed 28, showing the slight run-edge offense that started last year with the win in Green Bay.  We discussed the need for a slight overbalance to the running game just before the Bucs won two of three to closeout the 2009 season.  It appears the formula continues to be effetive.
- Tampa also won the all-important turnover margin with one more in their favor (+1) for the game

What is great for a young team is to win, and to win ugly.  A win gives confidence, and confidence is like a nuclear reactor on a young team.  The ugly part gives the coaches a clear view of what needs to be fine tuned.  For instance, Josh Freeman's 88.7 QB rating could be better.  The Buccaneers gave up three sacks to a statistical cellar-dweller in Cleveland.  Six penalties for 55 yards, while not a complete killer, can nonetheless turn field position against you.  And giving up two 40+ yard passing plays plus a 39-yard run can also quickly turn a game against you.

Such will be the roller-coaster of the second youngest team in the NFL in 2010 (yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are even younger this year than last!!).  This week, the Buccaneers will challenge the NFL's youngest team, the Carolina Panthers, in their first road game.  Another solid effort should produce the same results.  Cleaning up some of the rough spots will certainly help, too!

Upcoming Schedule Strength

A quick look at how the upcoming schedule fared:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland
Next: @Carolina  0-1

Pittsburgh	1-0
BYE
@Cincinnati	0-1
New Orleans	1-0
Saint Louis	0-1
@Arizona	1-0
@Atlanta	0-1
Carolina	0-1
@San Francisco	0-1
@Baltimore	1-0
Atlanta	0-1
@Washington	1-0
Detroit	0-1
Seattle	1-0
@New Orleans	1-0

Remaining Sched:  7-8

With just one game in the books for all 32 NFL teams, it's way too early to tell how strong the schedule will be in 2010.  Nevertheless, 50/50 feels pretty good after a win!

2010 Roster Cutdown, Part 3

Next, draft picks.  This team has not cut a draft pick since Mark Dominik took over at General Manager.  The plan is to build through the draft, so the draft picks will stay.

2009 Draft Picks not listed with the 28 known "starters":
CB #31 E.J. Biggers
T #68 Xavier Fulton
WR #18 Sammie Stroughter

2010 Draft Picks not listed with the 28 known "starters":
DT #92 Brian Price
WR #17 Arrelious Benn
CB #23 Myron Lewis
S #35 Cody Grimm
LB #56 Dakota Watson
DE #97 Erik Lorig

I am confident of this group because I believe the Buccaneers are confident in their ability to pick Football Players in the draft.  Some just take more time to get adjusted. 

And, since it is no secret, QB #12 Rudy Carpenter will also make it to opening day.

Adding this group to the previous 28 gives a total of 38 players for the roster, leaving 15 more spots.

2010 Roster Cutdown, Part 2

Let's talk about starting players.  It's a short conversation this year.

The following men will make the 53-man roster because they started the third game of the preseason as well as either the first or second preseason game:

Starters: Offense
WR 19 M.Williams
LT 70 D.Penn
C 52 J.Faine
RG 75 D.Joseph
RG 76 J.Zuttah
RT 65 J.Trueblood
FB 34 E.Graham
RB 24 C.Williams 

Others on Offense who are certainly going to make the roster:  LG #66 K.Vincent, who displaced the versatile Jeremy Zuttah; QB #5 J.Freeman, recovering from a thumb boo-boo; QB #11 J.Johnson, who has solidified the second quarterback position; TE #82 K.Winslow, last year's leading receiver; TE #86 J.Stevens, who appears to be on the second line behind Winslow.

Starters: Defense LE #94 K.Moore
DT #93 G.McCoy
DT #90 R.Miller
RE #91 S.White
SLB #58 Q.Black
MLB #51 B.Ruud
WLB #54 G.Hayes
LCB #25 A.Talib
RCB #20 R.Barber
SS #26 S.Jones
FS #36 T.Jackson

This will be the opening day defense.  Except for an injury to Talib for Game 1 and Sabby Piscatelly starting Game 1, this unit has been the same throughout the preseason.  Hopefully the early playing time for the same group will lead to early season defensive success.

That is 13 offensive and 11 defensive players, for a total of 24.  Add in Punter #1 B.Bowden and Kicker #10 C. Barth, and you have 26 locks for the opening day roster.  We're almost halfway there already!

2010 Roster Cutdown, Part 1

Let's see if we can work out the 53-man roster before Saturday -- first thing is to see who played in the more meaningful preseason games (Note: the fourth game of preseason is a glorified scrimmage between reserves.  If you stand out only in the fourth game of preseason, it's because you are only as good as the reserves of the other team).

So the first data we will use is the following chart, organized by team jersey number, of who played in what game.  The top two sections are the starters (first offense, then defense) and the rest of the list is people who substituted in during the game.  Of course, if you started all three preseason games, you've made the squad.


More data is coming soon . . . .

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3
Starters: Offense
WR 19 M.Williams	WR 19 M.Williams	WR 19 M.Williams
LT 70 D.Penn	LT 70 D.Penn	LT 70 D.Penn
LG 76 J.Zuttah	LG 76 J.Zuttah	LG 66 K.Vincent
C 52 J.Faine	C 52 J.Faine	C 52 J.Faine
RG 75 D.Joseph	RG 75 D.Joseph	RG 76 J.Zuttah
RT 65 J.Trueblood	RT 65 J.Trueblood	RT 65 J.Trueblood
TE 86 J.Stevens	TE 86 J.Stevens	TE 82 K.Winslow
WR 85 M.Stovall	WR 15 R.Brown	WR 18 S.Stroughter
QB 5 J.Freeman	QB 5 J.Freeman	QB 11 J.Johnson
FB 34 E.Graham	FB 34 E.Graham	FB 34 E.Graham
RB 24 C.Williams	RB 24 C.Williams	RB 24 C.Williams
Starters: Defense
LE 94 K.Moore	LE 94 K.Moore	LE 94 K.Moore
DT 93 G.McCoy	DT 93 G.McCoy	DT 93 G.McCoy
DT 90 R.Miller	DT 90 R.Miller	DT 90 R.Miller
RE 91 S.White	RE 91 S.White	RE 91 S.White
SLB 58 Q.Black	SLB 58 Q.Black	SLB 58 Q.Black
MLB 51 B.Ruud	MLB 51 B.Ruud	MLB 51 B.Ruud
WLB 54 G.Hayes	WLB 54 G.Hayes	WLB 54 G.Hayes
LCB 33 E.Mack	LCB 25 A.Talib	LCB 25 A.Talib
RCB 20 R.Barber	RCB 20 R.Barber	RCB 20 R.Barber
SS 21 S.Piscitelli	SS 26 S.Jones	SS 26 S.Jones
FS 36 T.Jackson	FS 36 T.Jackson	FS 36 T.Jackson
Substitutions:
P 1 B.Bowden	P 1 B.Bowden	P 1 B.Bowden
K 8 H.Lawrence	K 8 H.Lawrence		[CUT]
K 10 C.Barth	K 10 C.Barth	K 10 C.Barth
QB 11 J.Johnson	QB 11 J.Johnson
QB 12 R.Carpenter	QB 12 R.Carpenter	QB 12 R.Carpenter
WR 13 C.Brooks			[CUT]
WR 15 R.Brown		WR 15 R.Brown
WR 17 A.Benn	WR 17 A.Benn	WR 17 A.Benn
WR 18 S.Stroughter	WR 18 S.Stroughter
	S 21 S.Piscitelli	S 21 S.Piscitelli
		RB 22 C.Smith
	CB 23 M.Lewis	CB 23 M.Lewis
S 26 S.Jones
CB 27 D.Pasco			[CUT]
	CB 27 T.Williams	CB 27 T.Williams
RB 28 D.Ward	RB 28 D.Ward	RB 28 D.Ward	[CUT]
CB 29 D.Roberson	CB 29 D.Roberson	CB 29 D.Roberson
FB 30 R.Taylor	FB 30 R.Taylor	FB 30 R.Taylor
CB 31 E.Biggers	CB 31 E.Biggers	CB 31 E.Biggers
RB 32 K.Huggins	RB 32 K.Huggins	RB 32 K.Huggins
	CB 33 E.Mack	CB 33 E.Mack
S 35 C.Grimm	S 35 C.Grimm	S 35 C.Grimm
S 37 V.Anderson	S 37 V.Anderson	S 37 V.Anderson
CB 38 B.Anderson	CB 38 B.Anderson	CB 38 B.Anderson
RB 39 C.Brown	RB 39 C.Brown
S 41 C.Lynch	S 41 C.Lynch	S 41 C.Lynch
	S 43 D.Hall		[CUT]
LB 44 R.McCoy	LB 44 R.McCoy	LB 44 R.McCoy
FB 45 C.Pressley	FB 45 C.Pressley	FB 45 C.Pressley
TE 46 R.Purvis	TE 46 R.Purvis	TE 46 R.Purvis
LS 48 A.Economos	LS 48 A.Economos	LS 48 A.Economos
LB 49 L.Robinson	LB 49 L.Robinson	LB 49 L.Robinson
LB 50 J.Alston	LB 50 J.Alston		[IR]
LB 53 N.Koutouvides	LB 53 N.Koutouvides	LB 53 N.Koutouvides
LB 56 D.Watson	LB 56 D.Watson	LB 56 D.Watson
LB 57 A.Hayward	LB 57 A.Hayward	LB 57 A.Hayward
C 59 D.Raiola	C 59 D.Raiola	C 59 D.Raiola
DE 60 J.Ruffin	DE 60 J.Ruffin	DE 60 J.Ruffin
C 61 J.Compas	C 61 J.Compas	C 61 J.Compas
OL 62 M.Dile	OL 62 M.Dile	OL 62 M.Dile
G 66 K.Vincent	G 66 K.Vincent
		DE 67 G.Johnson
T 68 X.Fulton	T 68 X.Fulton	T 68 X.Fulton
T 69 D.Dotson
DL 71 M.Bennett	DL 71 M.Bennett	DL 71 M.Bennett
DE 72 B.Gilbeaux	DE 72 B.Gilbeaux	DE 72 B.Gilbeaux	[CUT]
T 73 D.Hardman	T 73 D.Hardman	T 73 D.Hardman
DT 74 C.Powell	DT 74 C.Powell	DT 74 C.Powell
T 77 J.Lee	T 77 J.Lee	T 77 J.Lee
WR 80 M.Clayton	WR 80 M.Clayton	WR 80 M.Clayton
WR 81 M.Spurlock	WR 81 M.Spurlock	WR 81 M.Spurlock
WR 83 T.Nunn	WR 83 T.Nunn	WR 83 T.Nunn	[CUT]
TE 84 J.Mastrud	TE 84 J.Mastrud	TE 84 J.Mastrud
		TE 86 J.Stevens
WR 87 P.Parker	WR 87 P.Parker	WR 87 P.Parker
TE 88 J.Gilmore	TE 88 J.Gilmore	TE 88 J.Gilmore
	DT 92 B.Price	DT 92 B.Price
DT 95 D.Moore	DT 95 D.Moore	DT 95 D.Moore
DE 96 T.Crowder	DE 96 T.Crowder	DE 96 T.Crowder
DE 97 E.Lorig	DE 97 E.Lorig	DE 97 E.Lorig
DT 98 R.Sims	DT 98 R.Sims	DT 98 R.Sims

Bryant, Ward out; Williams, Huggins in

The Cincinnati Bengals poured a $7.8 million signing bonus over former Buccaneer Antonio Bryant, then cut him without an appearance in a single game.  In his place is the 2010 preseason phenom and 4th round draft choice Mike Williams.

Derrick Ward signed a two year contract last year as an insurance policy for Cadillac Williams knees.  Enter 2009 Undrafted Free Agent Kareem Huggins.  Exit Derrick Ward.

Five of the six 2009 draft choices are either starting or second in line (Freeman, Miller, Moore, Biggers, Stroughter).  The same goes for four members of the 2010 draft class (McCoy, Price, Williams, Lewis).

Does anyone question the ability of General Manager Mark Dominik's front office to judge talent anymore?

Chris Hovan, longtime mainstay in the middle of the Buccaneers defense, was not offered a new contract by Dominik during the past offseason.  The St. Louis Rams did pick up Hovan, but he has been on IR since early July (back) and has not taken a snap during the preseason.  It is unlikely he makes the Rams opening day roster.

A quick prowl around the web shows Jermaine Phillips and Torrie Cox are not be in any NFL camps this fall.  Derrick Brooks has retired, as has Warrick Dunn.  Ike Hilliard never played another snap.

What would you think about your General Manager if your team drafts a player in April, then trades him away before the end of training camp in August?  Isn't it more impressive to find a Sammie Stroughter in the 7th round?  Obviously!

It seems the eight years Dominik put in as the Pro Personnel Director are paying off for the rebuilding Buccaneers.  No talent is "leaking" away from the team in the form of veterans with viable playing time remaining.  Dominik seems to understand when a veteran has given all they have to the franchise.  Knowing when a player has reached the end of their career is as important a talent for a GM as organizing the draft efforts -- mistakes in either case can cost the team cap space and roster opportunities for developing additional talent onto the depth chart.

Now Dominik must dig into his bag of tricks for another tool:  correctly choosing between two talented players at the same position.  Granted, this type of decision falls heavily on the shoulders of the coaching staff, who must be able to identify players which can perform the tasks presented to them at the highest level.  But, also, Dominik must manage his cap, the roster, and the practice squad while keeping an eye on the waiver wire, so the final decision rests in his office.  This is not a task for the squeamish; you know not all decisions will be winners.  In the modern NFL you don't have to hit with every decision, but you do have to nail the majority of them.  The core of the roster is the 44-man two-deep (that is, the starter and his backup for all positions) plus the punter, kicker, and perhaps a specialist long-snapper.  On a 53-man regular season roster, that leaves room for around six "others" -- versatile special teams performers, young talent to groom, or . . . mistakes, which will need to be corrected.  And a GM does not have time to deal with mistakes.

The final preseason game is tomorrow, after which rosters will be pared down from 75 players to 53-man rosters.  Those last few decisions may not be as critical as a first round pick in April, but they will impact the season and the future of the franchise.  Dominik has shown the ability a GM needs for the task.  As the talent on the roster continues to improve, the decisions will get tougher.  With the right choices, the rewards will escalate as well.