With multiple media reports stating the 49ers may be interested in Josh Johnson, could a trade be in the works? Johnson has completed his rookie contract so would not carry any additional cap penalties, making him very interesting to the right party. So the question is: what is the Buccaneers current #2 signal caller worth?
San Francisco has a lot of draft picks to use for bait this season. Currently the 49ers have 12 picks: 1 in each round, plus an extra in the 4th and 6th rounds, and three extra in the 7th round. Johnson was originally a 5th round pick by Tampa Bay in the Class of 2008. Certainly Johnson has proven he is worth more than his original pick, particularly with his expanded role in the Buccaneers two QB set (the "wildcat formation").
How badly does San Francisco need a quarterback? Currently the 49ers only have David Carr on their roster, the #1 overall pick in 2002. What makes Josh Johnson so interesting to the 49ers is he and new 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh are familiar with each other and the offense Harbaugh wishes to utilize due to time spent together at the University of San Diego.
The 49ers currently have the #7 pick this season. The top two prospects at quarterback, Blaine Gabbert of Missouri and Cam Netwon from Auburn, are currently not rating above that position on the draft boards of the more reliable sources, yet mock drafts across the web have both men gone by the time the 49ers pick. The next two quarterback prospects, Jake Locker of Washington and Christian Ponder of Florida State, should be off the board before the 49ers get their second pick. This scenario could leave Harbaugh either grasping early for the #3 QB at the seventh pick, or settling for the #5 quarterback in the class (Ryan Mallett of Arkansas). In the case where the top two quarterbacks are selected before the seventh pick, the trade value for Josh Johnson picks up considerably.
Other positions of need for the 49ers are defensive as the 49ers had one of the statistically poorest squads in the NFL last season. And if they do not select a quarterback with the seventh overall pick, they will their choice of one of the top two defensive ends or defensive tackles in the class of 2011.
So there are some facts which make a trade between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers reasonable. However, most reasons do not play out unless the 2011 NFL Draft falls a certain way. But, for once, it's nice to be the team waiting for the offer instead of being the team making the offer.
Showing posts with label Josh Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Johnson. Show all posts
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
What Is The Game Plan?
The plan before the 2009 season was for new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski to to install a running game using a zone blocking scheme. This new scheme would take advantage of the young offensive line and talented running backs on the Buccaneers roster to create a powerful rushing attack. This philosophy was detailed by Head Coach Raheem Morris during his first offseason (Apr 2, 2008):
But the lure of what Coach Jagodzinski brought to the interview table is obvious. He was fresh from dealing with college players. His program at Boston College had just graduated the (arguably) top rookie QB the year before (Atlanta's Matt Ryan). In the context of an upcoming draft with plans to grab a young signal caller, the fit is natural and too good to pass up. Protect that new young quarterback with a solid running game and have a proven coach in place to groom him into the passing game.
Ah, but the best laid plans . . . .
Before the 2009 season a zone-blocking run system was installed to replace the assignment blocking system of the prior coaching staff. During the preseason players gushed about how they could tell it would work and they liked it. Then, just before the last preseason game, Coach Jagodzinski was dismissed and Coach Greg Olson was promoted to Offensive Coordinator.
Suddenly, Tampa Bay came out throwing. And throwing. And the Buccaneers have rarely stopped since. What was to be a powerful rushing offense finds itself throwing 57.5% of the time through Week 14. In only 3 of 13 games so far in the 2009 season have the Buccaneers rushed the ball more than pass the ball. Those run-focused games were against Washington, at Carolina, and Miami -- three of the four narrowest losses this season. While there have been games when the run/pass count was different by less than 5 attempts (Miami, Atlanta, New England), there have been four games with 15+ more passing attempts than running attempts (Carolina, Philadelphia, NY Giants, and Buffalo). In contrast, the widest margin for the run game so far this season has been 8 more rushes than passes (Washington, at Carolina). The win against Green Bay was fairly balanced with only 6 more passing attempts than rushing attempts. In raw numbers, the most rushing attempts in a single game this year has been 31 twice (Dallas, Miami) and the most passing attempts in a single game this year has been fifty (50!) twice (Buffalo, Philadelphia).
There is no discernible pattern -- the high pass attempts are not specifically in games where the Buccaneers were far behind and playing catch-up football (for example, the Buccaneers were down by only 6 points at the start of the fourth quarter at Buffalo, one of the 50 pass attempt games). And it was not a matter of which quarterback was playing: games with Byron Leftwich averaged 20 rushes and 39 passes, games with Josh Johnson averaged 26 rushes and 30 passes, and games with Josh Freeman have averaged 25 rushes and 33 passes (Leftwich and Johnson each had a 50 pass game, Freeman's high attempt mark was 44 in his game against Carolina).
So very clearly we see that Coach Olson is a pass-first type of offensive coordinator. This is not entirely surprising as his background includes time at Purdue as quarterbacks coach with Joe Tiller and time in Detroit as quarterbacks coach with Steve Mariucci. As the season has progressed the offense has lost more and more of the zone blocking schemes and returned to the rather West Coast look of the past few years (just as the defense has also returned to what has previously been utilized).
While the debate about having a rookie quarterback and using a run game to remove the game from his shoulders is valid, it is not the subject here.
The change from the Jagodinski-run system to the Olson-pass system has severe consequences for the upcoming offseason. During the 2009 offseason, the offense was tooled to be a running football team with good, young size up front, blocking wide recievers, versatile tight ends, a fullback, and a multiheaded tailback. Several of these facets of the offense were established in free agency last year. By addressing these things last offseason the Buccaneers are primed to be aggressive on the defensive side of the ball this year.
However, if the Buccaneers are going to be a pass-system team then it's not so clear that the offensive side of the ball is where it needs to be. In fact, several positions on offense may need to be addressed during the 2010 offseason (free agency and draft). Wide receiver is underproductive for the number of pass attempts -- perhaps the Buccaneers need to give up some downfield blocking ability for speed, route precision, or hands/physical size. Offensive linemen need to be evaluated on pass-blocking ability and changes made if needed. You could also assert that the multiple back scheme is not necessary and replace tailbacks with more wide receivers. Perhaps the fullback position is not necessary and can be used for a defensive player instead.
The downside of all this is that it will detract from adding more young talent to the defense which is clearly in need.
While currently there is no clear sign that the direction will be anything different from what we've already seen, three games remain in the 2009 season. It is possible to establish an identity in these games different from the prior 14 games, though unlikely.
It will be intersting to watch how this plays out. The issue of the Tampa Bay offensive identity will most likely be the single most important driver of the 2010 offseason.
"'When you talk about the violent football teams, the physical football teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers, you think about downhill running and people smashing,' said Morris. 'That's just what it is. When you talk about violent football teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, you talk about people smashing you and running the ball downhill. We want to become those guys.'" -- Head Coach Raheem MorrisUnfortunately, Coach Jagodzinski was released during the preseason due to prolonged attention-to-details issues which I interpret as poor performance under game time conditions (such as play calling or working with assistants to get the right personnel on the field, etc). This interpretation of these events makes sense since game day trouble would not be detectable during a normal interview or during training camp. Coach Jagodzinski had been a head coach at Boston College. The focus of a head coach on game day is strategy. A coordinator must focus on tactics. The only other offensive coordinator duties that Jagodzinski had previously had was "passing game coordinator" at Green Bay. As such he had never flown solo as an offensive coordinator before and therefore may have been an ineffective tactician.
But the lure of what Coach Jagodzinski brought to the interview table is obvious. He was fresh from dealing with college players. His program at Boston College had just graduated the (arguably) top rookie QB the year before (Atlanta's Matt Ryan). In the context of an upcoming draft with plans to grab a young signal caller, the fit is natural and too good to pass up. Protect that new young quarterback with a solid running game and have a proven coach in place to groom him into the passing game.
Ah, but the best laid plans . . . .
Before the 2009 season a zone-blocking run system was installed to replace the assignment blocking system of the prior coaching staff. During the preseason players gushed about how they could tell it would work and they liked it. Then, just before the last preseason game, Coach Jagodzinski was dismissed and Coach Greg Olson was promoted to Offensive Coordinator.
Suddenly, Tampa Bay came out throwing. And throwing. And the Buccaneers have rarely stopped since. What was to be a powerful rushing offense finds itself throwing 57.5% of the time through Week 14. In only 3 of 13 games so far in the 2009 season have the Buccaneers rushed the ball more than pass the ball. Those run-focused games were against Washington, at Carolina, and Miami -- three of the four narrowest losses this season. While there have been games when the run/pass count was different by less than 5 attempts (Miami, Atlanta, New England), there have been four games with 15+ more passing attempts than running attempts (Carolina, Philadelphia, NY Giants, and Buffalo). In contrast, the widest margin for the run game so far this season has been 8 more rushes than passes (Washington, at Carolina). The win against Green Bay was fairly balanced with only 6 more passing attempts than rushing attempts. In raw numbers, the most rushing attempts in a single game this year has been 31 twice (Dallas, Miami) and the most passing attempts in a single game this year has been fifty (50!) twice (Buffalo, Philadelphia).
There is no discernible pattern -- the high pass attempts are not specifically in games where the Buccaneers were far behind and playing catch-up football (for example, the Buccaneers were down by only 6 points at the start of the fourth quarter at Buffalo, one of the 50 pass attempt games). And it was not a matter of which quarterback was playing: games with Byron Leftwich averaged 20 rushes and 39 passes, games with Josh Johnson averaged 26 rushes and 30 passes, and games with Josh Freeman have averaged 25 rushes and 33 passes (Leftwich and Johnson each had a 50 pass game, Freeman's high attempt mark was 44 in his game against Carolina).
So very clearly we see that Coach Olson is a pass-first type of offensive coordinator. This is not entirely surprising as his background includes time at Purdue as quarterbacks coach with Joe Tiller and time in Detroit as quarterbacks coach with Steve Mariucci. As the season has progressed the offense has lost more and more of the zone blocking schemes and returned to the rather West Coast look of the past few years (just as the defense has also returned to what has previously been utilized).
While the debate about having a rookie quarterback and using a run game to remove the game from his shoulders is valid, it is not the subject here.
The change from the Jagodinski-run system to the Olson-pass system has severe consequences for the upcoming offseason. During the 2009 offseason, the offense was tooled to be a running football team with good, young size up front, blocking wide recievers, versatile tight ends, a fullback, and a multiheaded tailback. Several of these facets of the offense were established in free agency last year. By addressing these things last offseason the Buccaneers are primed to be aggressive on the defensive side of the ball this year.
However, if the Buccaneers are going to be a pass-system team then it's not so clear that the offensive side of the ball is where it needs to be. In fact, several positions on offense may need to be addressed during the 2010 offseason (free agency and draft). Wide receiver is underproductive for the number of pass attempts -- perhaps the Buccaneers need to give up some downfield blocking ability for speed, route precision, or hands/physical size. Offensive linemen need to be evaluated on pass-blocking ability and changes made if needed. You could also assert that the multiple back scheme is not necessary and replace tailbacks with more wide receivers. Perhaps the fullback position is not necessary and can be used for a defensive player instead.
The downside of all this is that it will detract from adding more young talent to the defense which is clearly in need.
While currently there is no clear sign that the direction will be anything different from what we've already seen, three games remain in the 2009 season. It is possible to establish an identity in these games different from the prior 14 games, though unlikely.
It will be intersting to watch how this plays out. The issue of the Tampa Bay offensive identity will most likely be the single most important driver of the 2010 offseason.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Is Quarterback Solved for 2010?
Could it be that next year there will finally NOT be a QB controversy for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Is the position already set for the next several years barring a you-can't-pass-that-up draft pick?
On Nov 24th 2009 the Buccaneers acquired Rudy Carpenter from the Dallas Cowboys practice squad. Carpenter is an undrafted rookie from Arizona State. There is a draft perspective analysis and overview at the CBS NFL Draft Scout site. No need to repeat that information here -- it's not really the topic. However, this says a lot:
Carpenter was not rated particularly high on most draft boards (for example: #19 in the CBS QB Draft Prospect list for 2009). However, with 12 Quarterbacks being drafted last year Carpenter became a worthwhile free agent, The Dallas Cowboys liked what they saw enough to play him in two of four preseason games. He appears to be what you want in a 3rd quarterback: smart, efficient, and does not turn over the ball. These same qualities make him valuable as the scout team QB. Carptenter replaces former starter and previous #3 Byron Leftwich who moved to the IR.
The Bucs signed Leftwich last April to a two year deal. If Leftwich heals what ails him, Carpenter assures the bucs go into the offseason with four QBs. While the situation was the same last year (Griese, Johnson, Leftwich, McCown) it was hardly stable as the incumbent starter Jeff Garcia had already become a free agent and Brian Griese (essentially replaced by Leftwich) seemed convinced that his starting opportunities in Tampa Bay were over. This year the story is different: rookie and 2009 #1 pick Josh Freeman has been impressive. Josh Johnson was able to get valuable game experience and show flashes of what he can be. And the 7th year veteran Leftwich anchored the position for the first four games of the season. With the addition of Carpenter, the Bucs assure the youth they have been driving for at the QB position. Keeping Leftwich for the second year is cap-friendly and adds stability and a veteran offseason presence to the position.
Most importantly, with this free agent pick-up, GM Mark Dominik has assured Tampa Bay fans that there will be no speculation on the QB position this offseason. For the first time in quite some time there is not an aging veteran leading the QB position (or two, or three . .). There are no worries about a whether a free agent QB has just one more great season to give. In fact, the Buccaneers will have the luxury on draft day of selecting a QB if and only if the player is the best player on the board, or, if the opportunity presents itself, taking the option to trade out to gather additional picks. With a high draft pick looming and all signs pointing to an extremely deep talent pool in the 2010 draft the Buccaneers are in an enviable position -- quarterbacks are trade-up material (see Mark Sanchez from 2009; Tampa also moved up two spots to assure getting Freeman) and Tampa Bay is a team which would prosper from trading down. The same situation applies to the two second round picks if Tampa retains them until draft day.
By putting the finishing touches on the quarterback position now Dominik has opened up many options for the Buccaneers later. A Very Good Move.
On Nov 24th 2009 the Buccaneers acquired Rudy Carpenter from the Dallas Cowboys practice squad. Carpenter is an undrafted rookie from Arizona State. There is a draft perspective analysis and overview at the CBS NFL Draft Scout site. No need to repeat that information here -- it's not really the topic. However, this says a lot:
Carpenter started the final 43 games of his career and threw 1,309 passes with only 35 interceptions. He set an NCAA record for interception avoidance as a freshman with just two in 228 passes. As a senior, he threw 131 consecutive passes without an interception. "In the NFL and any other level of football it's hard to score points when you don't have the football," Carpenter said. "You can't turn the ball over at quarterback. One of my biggest assets is my decision making. That's going to help me out at the next level."- Rick Gosselin, The Dallas Morning News
Carpenter was not rated particularly high on most draft boards (for example: #19 in the CBS QB Draft Prospect list for 2009). However, with 12 Quarterbacks being drafted last year Carpenter became a worthwhile free agent, The Dallas Cowboys liked what they saw enough to play him in two of four preseason games. He appears to be what you want in a 3rd quarterback: smart, efficient, and does not turn over the ball. These same qualities make him valuable as the scout team QB. Carptenter replaces former starter and previous #3 Byron Leftwich who moved to the IR.
The Bucs signed Leftwich last April to a two year deal. If Leftwich heals what ails him, Carpenter assures the bucs go into the offseason with four QBs. While the situation was the same last year (Griese, Johnson, Leftwich, McCown) it was hardly stable as the incumbent starter Jeff Garcia had already become a free agent and Brian Griese (essentially replaced by Leftwich) seemed convinced that his starting opportunities in Tampa Bay were over. This year the story is different: rookie and 2009 #1 pick Josh Freeman has been impressive. Josh Johnson was able to get valuable game experience and show flashes of what he can be. And the 7th year veteran Leftwich anchored the position for the first four games of the season. With the addition of Carpenter, the Bucs assure the youth they have been driving for at the QB position. Keeping Leftwich for the second year is cap-friendly and adds stability and a veteran offseason presence to the position.
Most importantly, with this free agent pick-up, GM Mark Dominik has assured Tampa Bay fans that there will be no speculation on the QB position this offseason. For the first time in quite some time there is not an aging veteran leading the QB position (or two, or three . .). There are no worries about a whether a free agent QB has just one more great season to give. In fact, the Buccaneers will have the luxury on draft day of selecting a QB if and only if the player is the best player on the board, or, if the opportunity presents itself, taking the option to trade out to gather additional picks. With a high draft pick looming and all signs pointing to an extremely deep talent pool in the 2010 draft the Buccaneers are in an enviable position -- quarterbacks are trade-up material (see Mark Sanchez from 2009; Tampa also moved up two spots to assure getting Freeman) and Tampa Bay is a team which would prosper from trading down. The same situation applies to the two second round picks if Tampa retains them until draft day.
By putting the finishing touches on the quarterback position now Dominik has opened up many options for the Buccaneers later. A Very Good Move.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)