Analysis: Alex Magee Trade

On October 10th, 2010, Tampa Bay Buccaneers General Manager Mark Dominik pulled the trigger on a trade which brought defensive end Alex Magee to Tampa.

The details of the deal:
Tampa Bay:  Gets DE Alex Magee; Gets Chiefs 2011 NFL Draft 6th round draft pick
Kansas City:  Gets Buccaneers 2011 NFL Draft 5th round draft pick

This trade filled in the only gap in the Buccaneers 2011 NFL Draft slate, providing them with (at least) one choice in each round.  The hole in the 6th round in 2011 was created by the 2009 draft day trade with the Cleveland Browns to move up two spots in the first round to select QB Josh Freeman.

Let's break down the components of the Magee trade in particular.

Tampa Bay
Alex Magee is currently listed as a defensive tackle on the latest Buccaneers roster.  The 6'3", 298 pounder was originally selected by the Kansas City Chiefs in the third round of the 2009 NFL Draft (the same draft and round in which the Buccaneers selected DT Roy Miller).  Magee went on to play in 15 games his rookie season (starting 1) and recorded 6 tackles, 2 assists, and 2 sacks.  Magee started 2010 with Kansas City, appearing in 2 games and recording 2 tackles and 2 assists.  After arriving in Tampa, Magee went on to play in eight of the remaining twelve games of the 2010 season and recorded a duplicate of his entire rookie season (6 tackles, 2 assists, 2 sacks).  Magee played college football at Purdue University and was also part of an Illinois 7A High School State Championship team at Oswego High School.  According to Buccaneers Head Coach Raheem Morris, Magee was a player the Buccaneers had targeted in 2009 (video, first minute or so).

The Buccaneers used the Kansas City Chiefs 2011 NFL Draft 6th round pick to select Allen Bradford, a running back from the University of Southern California.

Kansas City

The Chiefs picked in the 5th round, Pick #4 (135th overall), and selected quarterback Ricky Stanzi, 6'4", 223lbs from the University of Iowa.  This pick was originally acquired from the Denver Broncos during the 2010 NFL Draft.

Dominik gave up two 7th round picks in the 2010 draft to get the pick which he dealt to the Chiefs.  The Broncos used those two 7th round picks to select DB Syd'Quan Thompson (played in 13 games last season) and DE Jammie Kerlew (Kerlew is currently not listed on the Broncos offseason roster).  For comparison, Tampa Bay drafted Cody Grimm, Dakota Watson, and Erik Lorig in the same draft, same round.

The 5th round pick Dominik kept in the 2011 NFL Draft was used by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to draft S Ahmad Black from the University of Florida.

Analysis
As far as players go, it comes down to the value of Alex Magee and Allen Bradford versus Ricky Stanzi.  Since Bradford and Stanzi have yet to play an NFL down, the trade cannot be graded on player production yet.  We'll have to revisit that in the future.

As far as value, the Buccaneers come out with a 5th round pick and an experienced defensive lineman, while the Chiefs come out with a 5th round pick, period.  Add in the possibility of the Buccaneers getting a 3rd round talent for what amounts to two 7th round draft choices and you see Tampa Bay came through this looking really good.  Dominik has proven to be a very shrewd personnel man and this trade does nothing but polish that image.

The real test will be in training camp this upcoming season.  Will Magee stick on a team which has spent a great deal of draft capital on the defensive line?  Will Bradford pierce a backfield loaded with veteran as well as youthful talent?  Will Stanzi make the Chiefs roster, and if so at what position?

So although the final analysis of this trade cannot be fully realized yet, the tendency leans heavily towards the Buccaneers getting the better end of the bargain.

Tampa Bay Playoff Drought Ending?

NFL.com has compiled their offseason rankings, and all three of their Expert writers have Tampa Bay firmly in the top half of the NFL.  Clearly, the word is out after last season's impressive rise and another strong draft class and Tampa Bay is getting some of it's credibility returned after a couple years of rebuilding.

Gil Brandt has the Buccaneers rated at #13, behind the Saints (#6) and the Falcons (#3) but ahead of the Panthers (#30).

Pat Kirwan has Tampa Bay at #11, also behind the Saints (#8) and Falcons (#5).  Kirwan tags the Carolina Panthers as the worst team in the NFL next season (#32).

Steve Wyche has the Buccaneers as a Top 10 team in the NFL (#9), only behind the Saints (#1) in the NFC South, with Atlanta (#12) and Carolina (#32) ranked lower.

What is truly impressive is NFC Rank for each:  Brandt has the Buccaneers as the 8th best NFC Team, Kirwan has Tampa Bay being the 6th best team in the NFC, and Wyche has the Bucs as the 4th best team in the NFC.  With eight teams from the NFC reaching the playoffs, all three are suggesting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will return to the playoffs next season.

Obviously the NFC South will still be a stout division next season.  Should the Buccaneers finish 3rd, they may find themselves walking the fine line of the final wildcard births again this coming season.  A second place finish in the NFC South has resulted in a playoff birth in three of the past four seasons.

The current three year playoff drought is the longest for the Buccaneers since the 1983-1996 void ended by Tony Dungy leading the Buccaneers to their first playoff win in 16 years in 1997.

Tampa Bay has not won a playoff game since the 2002 Championship Season.

The wait for the return to the NFL Playoffs may end this season!

No Hard Knocks For Tampa Bay

With no end to the lockout in site and plenty more litigation to go through, I have been able to confirm through several sources that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not be part of the HBO Series Hard Knocks during the next training camp.

Until about 10 days ago, all signs were this was a done deal between HBO and Tampa Bay.  This change of tone may imply the Buccaneers see the current work stoppage lasting a while.  Add in the fact they are a young team and probably could wait with the distraction of daily cameras until they become a more veteran squad, and the move is very smart.

It is not clear if this will be announced or will just fade away, but this is not over.  My information is the Buccaneers remain open to the possibility of participating in the Hard Knocks franchise in the near future.

Just not the immediate future.

Walk The Buccaneers Draft With The GM

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2011 Draft, with video comments by Buccaneers General Manager Mark Dominik:

Round 1/Pick #20: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
GM Mark Dominik Day 1 Wrap-up Press Conference

Round 2/Pick #51: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
GM Mark Dominik, Second Round Pick Comments

Round 3/Pick #84: Mason Foster, LB, Washington
GM Mark Dominik, Third Round Pick Comments

Round 4/Pick #104) Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
Round 5/Pick #151) Ahmad Black, SS, Florida
Round 6/Pick #187) Allen Bradford, RB, Southern California
Round 7/Pick #222) Anthony Gaitor, DB, Florida International
Round 7/Pick #238) Daniel Hardy, TE, Idaho
Draft Wrap-Up Press Conference

Talib Not Going Anywhere (Unless)

Aqib Talib will not be leaving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, unless he really did fire a weapon in Texas.

Contrary to other reports, there is not a movement inside the Buccaneers organization to let Talib go.  And while the blogosphere is quick to judge, jury, and execution, just because you don't look at the facts does not mean they do not exist.  Really, bloggers "calling" for the release of Talib?  Get Real.

Don't get me wrong -- if Talib fired the gun, the NFL will be quick and decisive in it's actions.  And dismissal from the team is a real possibility.

But, so far, Talib is still only a "person of interest".  He has not been formally charged.  In fact, a grand jury will decide whether to indict Talib.  The facts of the case are sketchy, with many coming from the notorious "unnamed sources close to the investigation".  And several don't pass the "common sense" test, such as the man allegedly shot at was at the scene when police arrived -- this is a guy who claims two people shot at him; was he looking for a third time?  The suspect led the police to the gun which was allegedly discharged at him; it was in a neighbor's trash can -- again, shot at, ran away, but knew where the gun was?

A grand jury will decide if charges need to be brought against Talib.  Until then, he's done everything the team has asked of him, including anger management courses and limited time with the media.  The team will not make a decision before this process is fully resolved.

So let's just let it play out, OK?

Another Big At Running Back?

By now, Buccaneer fans understand General Manager Mark Dominik is very serious about filling every roster spot with a quality football player.  His eye for free agents has been uncanny, resulting in finds like Donald Penn and LeGarrette Blount.

So it's worth the time to take a peek at what happened January 4th, 2011, or, more precisely, what arrived.  January 4th was the day the end-of-season practice squad roster had it's members signed to the offseason roster -- have new surprises arrived?

One big thing that arrived was Rendrick Taylor.  Taylor was signed on May 3rd, 2010, and spent the offseason with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers only to be cut on the final roster countdown after training camp last year.  Obviously, he left a big impression.

Taylor is a 2010 free agent, undrafted out of Clemson.  The 6'2", 265lbs running back was a 5th year senior with a history of injuries in college including a broken wrist in 2005 and a broken arm in 2006.  He missed his entire 4th college season (2008) due to injury.

Nonetheless, the Buccaneers brought Taylor back to the practice squad on December 8th, 2010 and signed him to the current roster on January 4th, 2011.  He fills a void left when Chris Pressley, the only fullback on the Tampa Bay roster at the time, was cut in October 2010 to make room for offensive line promotions as the injuries started to pile up last season.

Can Taylor be a surprise in 2011?  Journeyman Erik Lorig played well at fullback during the second half of last year, but it's still not clear if the Buccaneers would rather use Lorig at tight end or defensive end.  Taylor is the tallest and heaviest runner on the Tampa Bay roster, and the Buccaneers plan to continue to develop their physical running game.

This will be a key offseason for Taylor, making him a story worth watching during the next training camp. If he has worked through his injuries and is healthy again he could be a player which extends the game for others, like Lorig or Earnest Graham, which would make him very valuable to the team.

What Is Josh Johnson Worth?

With multiple media reports stating the 49ers may be interested in Josh Johnson, could a trade be in the works?  Johnson has completed his rookie contract so would not carry any additional cap penalties, making him very interesting to the right party.  So the question is:  what is the Buccaneers current #2 signal caller worth?

San Francisco has a lot of draft picks to use for bait this season.  Currently the 49ers have 12 picks:  1 in each round, plus an extra in the 4th and 6th rounds, and three extra in the 7th round.  Johnson was originally a 5th round pick by Tampa Bay in the Class of 2008.  Certainly Johnson has proven he is worth more than his original pick, particularly with his expanded role in the Buccaneers two QB set (the "wildcat formation").

How badly does San Francisco need a quarterback?  Currently the 49ers only have David Carr on their roster, the #1 overall pick in 2002.  What makes Josh Johnson so interesting to the 49ers is he and new 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh are familiar with each other and the offense Harbaugh wishes to utilize due to time spent together at the University of San Diego.

The 49ers currently have the #7 pick this season.  The top two prospects at quarterback, Blaine Gabbert of Missouri and Cam Netwon from Auburn, are currently not rating above that position on the draft boards of the more reliable sources, yet mock drafts across the web have both men gone by the time the 49ers pick.  The next two quarterback prospects, Jake Locker of Washington and Christian Ponder of Florida State, should be off the board before the 49ers get their second pick.  This scenario could leave Harbaugh either grasping early for the #3 QB at the seventh pick, or settling for the #5 quarterback in the class (Ryan Mallett of Arkansas).  In the case where the top two quarterbacks are selected before the seventh pick, the trade value for Josh Johnson picks up considerably.

Other positions of need for the 49ers are defensive as the 49ers had one of the statistically poorest squads in the NFL last season.  And if they do not select a quarterback with the seventh overall pick, they will their choice of one of the top two defensive ends or defensive tackles in the class of 2011.

So there are some facts which make a trade between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers reasonable.  However, most reasons do not play out unless the 2011 NFL Draft falls a certain way.  But, for once, it's nice to be the team waiting for the offer instead of being the team making the offer.

Market Size Relevant to CBA Negotiations

When the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) negotiations broke down in Washington, D.C., the first casualty was "truth".  Then the players got locked out.  Then came court cases.  It went south in a big hurry.

Since then we've only seen posturing as things need time to cool off before anyone can approach the bargaining table again.

Three years ago, the NFL owners decided to opt-out of the recently lapsed CBA.  The CBA is the "rules of the road" for the relationship between an NFL team and an individual player, covering everything from contracts to retirement to salary caps to practice limits.

The old CBA carried some significant challenges for General Managers, including a skyrocketing salary cap and unbalanced rules regarding team income from luxury boxes and stadium advertising.

It appears the owners may still be struggling with the disparity of incomes for the various franchises.  For example, the Cowboys get a nice chunk of change for all those new skyboxes in their new stadium, while smaller market teams (Buffalo, Green Bay, Kansas City, Tampa Bay) get much less for their stadium naming rights and box seats.  These are serious issues among the owners.

So it is no surprise in the final days before talks ended the owners were represented by a large market team (John Mara, New York Giants), a middle market team (Art Rooney II, Pittsburgh Steelers), and a small market team (Clark Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs).  This begs the question as to whether the owners have their own differences settled, or if the various market sizes have certain agenda items they wish to address.

If the owners don't have agreement among themselves, then an agreement with the players may not be coming anytime soon.  The NFL players union demanded to see team-by-team financials just before the talks broke down -- perhaps the players sense some blood in the water regarding the owner's disputes over money and were looking to define it.

How silly will this get?  The player's union has disbanded and now it appears players will be suing owners, using money the owners paid to the players.  A prolonged court battle is the last thing the opening of the 2011 training camps need.

So, NFL fans, I encourage you to enjoy the 2011 draft.  There may not be anything else but reruns for the rest of the summer.