Buccaneers Build Top 10 Rushing Attack

When Head Coach Raheem Morris and General Manager Mark Dominik took the reigns of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before the 2009 season, they painted a picture for the Buccaneer Faithful of a team with a powerful rushing attack and a solid defense.

They have made big progress towards both this season with a winning record to prove it.

With one game remaining, the Buccaneers have reached the top quarter of the NFL as far as production in the running game.  The chart below shows how the offense has made steady improvement running the ball since Week 5:

Currently, the offense has set a new high mark in the per game average at almost 128 yards/game, which ranks 7th in the NFL, ahead of teams like Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New England.  Tampa Bay also has a 7-game 100+ yard rushing effort streak still going (which includes teams like Baltimore and Atlanta).

The most impressive part of this evolving running attack is the number of different offensive linemen who have contributed to the effort:

Week 5 (New Orleans):  Center Jeff Faine suffers his first severe injury of the season, and in steps rookie Ted Larsen as Jeremy Zuttah moves to center.  Since then, the Buccaneers have not rushed for less than 90 yards in a single game.

Week 7 (Arizona):  Tackle Jeremy Trueblood and Guard Keydrick Vincent suffer injuries.  The Buccaneers promote G/T Derek Hardman off the practice squad and ask T James Lee to step in for Trueblood.  Lee has started ever since, and Hardman has worked his way into the starting lineup when Davin Joseph was injured during Week 11.

The changes have not all been up front, either.  After Kareem Huggins suffered a season ending knee injury during the New Orleans game, LeGarrette Blount emerged to start playing a larger and larger role in the running game.  Blount had a two-pronged effect:  not only was he effective, his production on first and second down started reducing the need for Josh Freeman to run for positive yards to keep drives alive.

This is all a very good sign for the near future of the franchise:  multiple contributors up front and in the backfield, plus the experience of Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams.

The running game is becoming a reliable part of the Buccaneers offense, opening up the playbook and providing even more options to offensive coordinator Greg Olson.  A reliable running game has been a strong part of the past success of the Buccaneers.

Looks like those times have returned!

You Can't Throw A Cadillac Under A Bus

I find it very amusing people think Cadillac Williams may need to be benched.  Granted, it's the easy answer when the team plays a stout defense as the Buccaneers have twice this season (Pittsburgh and New Orleans).

But, as always, some in depth analysis shows it's a completely mistaken idea.  

Behold, Ye Doubters

In the game last weekend, woeful as it was offensively, Cadillac Williams lead Tampa Bay in both rushing and receiving yards, catching as many passes as Mike Williams.  But just the numbers do not demonstrate his value.  Williams also converted 4 of the 5 third down plays when the ball went into his hands (out of 13 total third down plays).  And he brings value because of the attention he receives from opposing teams.  There is not a more dangerous runner on the team.

But there must be some reason people think the offense is not producing.  Most likely, it is because all the yards are not in just one player's basket:

• Cleveland:  Williams 75, Freeman 34, Graham 10: 119 total rushing yards
• Carolina:  Williams 51, Freeman 43, Graham 1:  95 total rushing yards
• Pittsburgh:  Williams 13, Freeman 15, Graham 13, Blount 27:  68 total rushing yards
• Cincinnati:  Williams 33, Freeman 20, Graham 65:  118 total rushing yards
• New Orleans:  Williams 18, Johnson 11:  29 total yards rushing

Is it any surprise for the Pittsburgh and New Orleans rushing totals to be lowest of the season so far?  Still, as a team, the Buccaneers are on pace to be a 1,300 yard hybrid running back.  For comparison, last season there were only six running backs who gained more than 1300 yards in the NFL.  For the Buccaneers themselves, last season Cadillac and Derrick Ward gained over 1,200 yards on the ground, which means actually the rushing attack is slightly improved if this pace stays consistent for the rest of the season (and it should).  In 2008, Graham and Warrick Dunn combined for 1,349 yards.  In 2007, Graham, Williams, and Micheal Pittman combined for 1,392 yards.  The pattern is obvious . . . the running game is not "broken".

Granted, some are just looking for the quick finger point.  And some will just never (ever, ever) do the research.  A pity on them.

Fortunately, Coach Morris knows it isn't broken.  And there is no need to fix it.

Carnell Williams is still the Cadillac of Buccaneer Running Backs

He had to know coming in.  It had to be on his mind this past offseason.  And I'm sure it was no surprise to the coaching staff.  Opponents were going to stack the box against Josh Freeman to force the young quarterback to win games for the Buccaneers.  Which means Cadillac Williams was going to be the priority-one item on the Stop-That-Guy list every Sunday this season.  He had to know it.

How's it working so far?  The Buccaneers are 3-1 through the first quarter of the season.  So it's working just fine for Tampa Bay, thank you very much.

The best way to take pressure off a quarterback is a solid running game.  The Buccaneers have a solid, experienced offensive line, many of whom have played next to each other for multiple years.  It makes sense for the Buccaneers to be a run-first team.  It's no secret.  It's not even a rumor.  The Buccaneers want to run the ball down your throat, period.  The best of days is when the pass is needed to augment the run game.  The rough days are when the pass is needed to open up the run.

And let's face it -- if we know this, then opposing teams know it.  Head Coach Raheem Morris knows it.  And Cadillac Williams knows it.  3.4 yards/carry against Cleveland, 1.9 yards/carry against Carolina, 2.2 yards/carry against Pittsburgh, and 3.0 yards/carry against Cincinnati.  Every carry against a loaded front, with or without an included blitz, every yard hard earned.  And through it all you never hear a complaint.  Williams never points a finger.  Because he knows until the team establishes the young quarterback and young wide receivers as a threat you have to respect, he has to be ready to fight for every yard.  And should they dare start to look the other way, he has to be ready to explode.  Guess what?  It's a perfect fit to his mentality.  What do you think a guy who's had two shredded knees rehabbed would be like on a football field?  Happy?  Give me a break.

And don't discard Earnest Graham, either.  He knows the same thing, and as fullback he leads the charge on most plays.  Graham is another guy who has paid a long list of dues to get to the field.  What hasn't he done for this team?  How in the world can you think about changing a highly effective piece of the puzzle away from exactly what it is right now?  He's going to be the difference in a lot of games -- a 61-yard dagger from under the Buccaneers own goal posts last Sunday makes the point precisely.

Don't even get me started on how good Williams and Graham are catching the ball out of the backfield either.

There may be younger players showing flashes of talent on the roster, and we the fans are excited about all the youth and the future we believe they bring.  But there are some positions where the experienced players bring a heavy focus from other teams.  The attention on the Buccaneers backfield gives the youngsters on the edges room to roam.

But the tide is changing.  3-1 will do that.  Teams are starting to see that forcing the pass does not win the game.  In fact, concentrating only on the run game is become dangerous (just ask the Bengals, who had the ball, 1:30 left in the game, and a seven point lead).  The Buccaneers can beat you through the air -- they never called a running play in the fourth quarter against the Bengals.  And won.

What are you going to do now?  One thing is for sure:  Do not look past the four-legged creature roaming the Buccaneers backfield on game day.  It's a mistake you will regret.

CBA Impact: Four- To Six-Year Players

With the CBA now officially heading for it's Final League Year (starting March 1st) some of the fog for the 2010 offseason has been lifted.  The first group of players to be examined are players with four, five, or six years of NFL experience.  For players in this experience range who's contract ended with the 2009 season the news is probably not what they want to hear.  Instead of being unrestricted free agents (can sign with anyone for any price) in an uncapped year, they are instead restricted free agents (giving Tampa Bay the option to match the best offer they can find).  Here is a list of Bucs players with 4-6 years of experience (in jersey number order):

24  Williams, Cadillac (5) -- signed 5-year contract in 2005; will be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
48  Economos, Andrew (4) --    signed 5-year contract in 2008; under contract through 2012
50  McCoy, Matt (5) -- drafted in 2005, signed with Buccaneers in 2008, on and off roster for 2009, suspect short term contract; will be RFA(?)
51  Ruud, Barrett (5) -- 2009 was last contract year; will be an RFA
65  Trueblood,  Jeremy (4) -- signed 4-year contract in 2006; will be an RFA
70  Penn, Donald  (4) -- signed one year tender in 2009; will be an RFA
75  Joseph, Davin (4) -- signed 5-year contract in 2006; under contract through 2010
85  Stovall, Maurice (4) -- contract expires at end of 2009, will be an RFA

I have no doubt that the one year tender offer given to Donald Penn last year was, in his mind, a bridge to unrestricted free agency.  That bridge is now gone. 

Williams was the team's leading rusher last year and showed great promise in returning from severe injury.  Penn played well against most of the best defensive ends this past season and solidified his position as a rare talent at left tackle.  If the deep pockets come calling, those will be the first places they stop.  Trueblood has also shown he is a more than capable right tackle, and Stovall and Ruud were important contributors as well.

The good news is that Tampa Bay gets to match any offer other teams bring to the table.  The bad news is that all five players highlighted above were important contributors last year and losing any of them will be problematic.

Game Plan Revisited

During 2009 Week 15 a review of the overall direction of the offense posed the question: what type of offense will Tampa Bay have? At the time the Bucs were passing the ball on 60% of snaps making it appear the offseason would require some retooling of the offense.

There were only three games remaining on the schedule -- the Buccaneers went 2-1 over those games – but what type of team were they when the season ended?

vs Seattle

In the first half, Tampa Bay threw 12 passes and ran 13 times and went into halftime down 7-3. For the game, however, the Buccaneers passed 26 times and ran 34 times (14 passes and 21 rushes in the second half) and the Buccaneers won the game 24-7. Cadillac Williams finished with an average of 5.5 yards/carry.

vs New Orleans

The Buccaneers passed 18 times and ran 13 times in the first half on the way to being down 17-3 at halftime. For the game the pass/run was 31/34 (13/21 in the second half and OT) and the Buccaneers had their most memorable win of 2009 with a 20-17 overtime victory. Cadillac Williams averaged 5.4 yards/carry and ran the ball on 9 of 10 plays in OT getting into field goal range for the winning OT kick.

vs Atlanta

In the first half there were 14 passes and 11 rushes on the way to a 10-3 halftime deficit. In the second half the Buccaneers passed 17 times and rushed 12 (for a full game run/pass of 31/23), losing 20-10. In this game, Cadillac Williams averaged just 2.1 yards/carry.

In each game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had over 20 rushing attempts. In the two wins, Cadillac ran for over 5 yards per carry (he averaged 3.5 yards per carry in the other 2009 win against Green Bay). In the games won by the Buccaneers the offense ran more times than they passed over the whole game. But most importantly, they ran more than passed in their signature game of 2009. While not totally convincing, it does seem like over the final three games of 2009 Tampa Bay reinforced the blueprint for the power running game which can be a big key for future success. Hopefully that mentality carries through the 2010 offseason and keeps producing in 2011 and beyond.

Buccaneer Building Blocks: Offense

The 2009 Buccaneers are one of the youngest teams in the NFL.  Twenty-seven players (a.k.a. half) of the Buccaneers 53-man roster has less than 3 years of NFL experience.  Tampa Bay also played a rugged schedule.  With a 10-player 2010 draft ahead the team figures to not age much during the upcoming offseason.  This means the inexperience will remain if the new draft picks are impact players and find their way onto the depth chart.

Although there are plenty of exceptions, young teams generally have to make the playoffs and lose before they make the playoffs and win.  Said another way, teams with veterans who have been to the playoffs do better in playoff games than young teams who have been to the playoffs.

Assuming all this it follows that a realistic target for a deep-playoff-run-caliber-team is probably 2012 or 2013 for this franchise.  The time to prepare for that run is now.

For the record, a winning record could happen next year and nothing says the team can't achieve ahead of schedule.  I'm just following the probabilities.

The average NFL career lasts just 3.5 years.  So three years from now (2012/2013) Tampa Bay will (probably) rely on players who have less than 5 years experience today.  It is important to note that a 5 year vet now (that is, after the 2009 season) could be an 8 year player with some nagging injuries in three years.  Also note this does not imply that all players over 5 years of experience in 2009 will be done and gone by 2012 (can Jeff Faine have an 11 year career?  Sure, but that's another 50 games playing on the interior line).  Again, it's just weighing the probabilities.

To build a crystal ball for a look three years ahead, I took the most recent Buccaneers team depth chart and roster (both of which have been a moving target all year) and added the players from IR since they are generally under contract.  I ignored players on the practice squad as they are under a less-binding contract structure.  This provides a glimpse of the "core" of the offense.  These are the players which will determine how quickly the Buccaneers get back to the playoffs:

WR - Maurice Stovall (4th year), Mario Urrita (1st year), Terrance Nunn (0th year/rookie)
LT - Donald Penn (4), James Lee (2)
LG - Jeremy Zuttah (2),  Arron Sears (3), Shawn Murphy (2)
C - Johnathan Compas (0)
RG - Davin Joseph (4)
RT - Jeremy Trueblood (4), Demar Dotson (0), Xavier Fulton (0)
WR - Sammie Straughter (0),  Brian Clark (3)
TE - Ryan Purvis (0)
QB - Josh Freeman (0), Josh Johnson (2), Rudy Carpenter (0)
RB - Clifton Smith (2), Kareem Huggins (1)
FB - Byron Storer (3), Chris Pressley (0)
PK - Conner Barth (2)

NOTE:  Tackle Demar Dotson has spent some time at TE but has yet to catch a pass and may only be getting used as an extra blocker at that position.

Big contributors which might be gone include:
Jeff Faine (C, 7th season(2009)) - some linemen have very long careers, but serious injury and wear and tear can catch up to you quickly on the line.
Kellen Winslow (TE, 6th season(2009)) - injured more than once before he got to Tampa, Winslow may have a long career by the fact of how much time was missed early in his career.  On the flip side, a re-injury could be devastating.
Carnell Williams (RB, 5th season(2009)) - Like Winslow, Williams has missed parts of more than one year.  However, two reconstructed knees can't hold up as long as two healthy ones.  Nevertheless, he could be around for several more years because he's splitting time in the backfield.
Derrick Ward (RB, 6th season(2009)) - He should be around for a while as he has pretty much split time for several years now.

Is that young core possibly a playoff-caliber offense?  If not, where does it need to be upgraded/updated with draft picks or free agents?
 
The offensive line is young, has been playing together for a couple years, and performs well.  It is certainly a playoff caliber unit and it certainly will be a strength going forward.  One hole in the armor was revealed when Jeff Faine went down early in the 2009 season.  The lack of depth required bringing in Sean Mahan to fill in.  Should the Buccaneers draft a center?  Should they find one in Free Agency?  Is Marc Dile (South Florida rookie), who has physical size similar to Faine, a future center prospect or has Compas progressed to a point where only additional depth is needed?  Can any of the reserve guards play center?  Finally, is Aaron Sears healthy and able to continue his football career?

Wide Receiver actually looks pretty good.  Straughter and Stovall have had good games and have become involved in many aspects of the game as the 2009 season has progressed.  Brian Clark has had some moments as well.  Only two questions here:  can they continue to improve?  Does Tampa Bay need more depth at this position?

Running Back is well stocked and young.  If just one of the current backs (Williams, Ward, or Graham) has a longer career it is certainly a playoff caliber unit and matches up perfectly with the young offensive line.

Quarterback also seems well stocked.  Both Joshes have both gotten playing experience and Josh Freeman has had full games where he played very well with numerous flashes of what is still to come.  Carpenter brings accuracy and removes all pressure to make moves at this position this offseason.

The tight end position is a big unknown.  Purvis spent all of 2009 on the practice squad and so is a complete unknown.  In 2009, Kellen Winslow set yardage and receptions records at this position.  This is a position of need -- possibly in need of two more players for the 2010 training camp.  This assumes that Demar Dotson has taken snaps at TE for blocking and not for pass catching.

Placekicker Conner Barth has shown a good leg but also some inconsistancy.  There will probably be routine competition at this position until someone can secure it hands down.  Veteran kickers are generally available year round in free agency so no depth is needed here nor does youth have to be served.

So, with a tip of the hat to the 2009 offseason acquisitions (Freeman, Winslow, Ward, Straughter), it appears that the offense has a strong nucleus of players to build around.  While there are not pressing needs, if a high caliber center, tight end (or two), or wide receiver is available in free agency (must be  young) or is the best player available at some point during the draft it would solidify the young offensive core of the Buccaneers.  This half of the team is well positioned to get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back into the playoffs in the near future.

See also:  Updated with 2010 Practice Squad Signings