Buccaneer wideouts ready for breakout

With the drafting of Josh Freeman in 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers embarked on a complete renovation of the ball handlers on offense.  The first target was the wide receivers group, starting with Sammie Stroughter a few rounds later.  In 2010, WRs Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn were drafted.  Those three have taken more than the lions share of starts at wideout for the past two seasons.  Add in Preston Parker (2010 undrafted free agent) and Dezmon Briscoe (plundered from the Cincinnati Bengals practice squad in 2010) and you have a set of highly productive pass-catchers.  However, injury and youth have conspired to keep this group from reaching their potential.

The most productive pass-catcher in 2011 (and 2010) was TE Kellen Winslow, now departed in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks. Enter Vincent Jackson, free agent from San Diego and one of the most coveted players in the 2012 free agent pool.  Winslow caught 75 passes for 763 yards in 2011; Jackson caught 60 passes for 1,106 yards.  Winslow produced 2 touchdowns in 2011; Jackson scored 9 touchdowns in 2011.

Based on statistics, the Winslow and Jackson moves appear to shift the emphasis from the Tight End position out to the Wide Receivers for 2012.  This does not imply the Tampa Bay Tight End squad will not be productive, it just means the proven playmakers are now on the edge. In theory, this should force opposing defenses to play from the inside out instead of from the outside to the middle. There is no doubt the Buccaneers will be looking for a new, younger TE to emerge in 2012 (a story for another day), but that person will not be option #1 for Josh Freeman down after down after down.

When going to training camp on July 29th, the Buccaneer's Wide Reciever group will bring the following 2011 production (sorted by Receiving Yards):

Wideout	Ht	Wt	Games	Starts	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Notes
Jackson, Vincent	6'5"	230	16	16	60	1106	18.4	58	9	FA (SD)
Williams, Mike	6'2"	212	16	15	65	771	11.9	42	3
Parker, Preston	6'0"	200	16	0	40	554	13.9	51	3
Benn, Arrelious	6'2"	220	14	14	30	441	14.7	65T	3
Briscoe, Dezmon	6'2"	210	16	2	35	387	11.1	46	6
Stroughter, Sammie	5'10"	189	6	0	4	52	13	29	0
Underwood, Tiquan	6'1"	183	6	0	3	30	10	13	0	FA (NE)
Wright, Wallace	6'1"	197	16	0	2	21	10.5	14	0	FA (NYJ)
Gant, Ed	6'3"	200	4*	0	5	164	32.8	96	1	* All Preseason
Ellingson, Greg	6'3"	197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2012 College FA
Lewis, Armahd	5'8"	171	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2012 College FA

Williams and Benn have been on the field for a great majority of snaps in each of their two seasons in the NFL.  Parker and Briscoe broke out last season to demonstrate they can be productive players.  Stroughter was slowed by injury in 2011.  Gant wowed during the 2011 preseason with a 96 yard touchdown catch and his NFL size.

If I had to build a depth chart today, it would probably shake out this way:

Right side WR (Freeman's Right Hand, Primary Receiver)
Vincent Jackson - The big paycheck means make him #1
Mike Williams - Won't learn anything from Jackson if he's learning some other position

Left Side WR (Freeman's Back, Secondary Receiver)
Arrelious Benn - Can be a deep threat
Dezmon Briscoe - Extremely productive in the red zone last season

Slot
Preston Parker - Slot is a 3rd down position; Parker is Mr. Third Down
Sammie Stroughter - He may also have some kick/punt return duties

Of those six, Stroughter is the player most in jeopardy to be replaced by one of the free agents, but his punt returning skills are hard to ignore.  Gant and Ellingson have the physical size to play into the interior from the slot.  Armahd is a burner, and Underwood and Wright bring experience from playoff-caliber teams.

How good could this group be?  Here are the best seasons of the players in this group with NFL game experience:

Wideout	Ht	Wt	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Year
Jackson, Vincent	6'5"	230	68	1167	17.2	55	9	2009
Williams, Mike	6'2"	212	65	964	14.8	58T	11	2010
Parker, Preston	6'0"	200	40	554	13.9	51	3	2011
Benn, Arrelious	6'2"	220	30	441	14.7	65T	3	2011
Briscoe, Dezmon	6'2"	210	35	387	11.1	46	6	2011
Stroughter, Sammie	5'10"	189	31	334	10.8	35	1	2009
Underwood, Tiquan	6'1"	183	8	111	13.9	22	0	2010
Wright, Wallace	6'1"	197	6	87	14.5	36	0	2007

It is a very solid group when playing to their potential.  A running game which opposing teams have to respect can only make this group more productive.

It is entirely possible for the Buccaneers to open the season with more than six WRs on the roster.  New offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan will make that call. In any case, this looks like one of the more polished groups on the pre-camp roster.  Look for a breakout year!

What A Difference A Year Makes

This time, last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were reeling from an 0-7 start and had just returned from London.  This was the bye week in 2009.  The entire Buccaneer Nation was dismayed, disturbed, and disheartened by the record and the way the hard changes brought on by first year General Manager Mark Dominik and first year Head Coach Raheem Morris had impacted the team.

Fast forward one year later and Tampa Bay has reached 5-2, with the NFC South divisional lead on the line next weekend as the Buccaneers head to Atlanta. 

In 2009, the Buccaneers were handing the reigns of the team over to rookie quarterback Josh Freeman.  Freeman has been the quarterback ever since, compiling an 8-8 record and making big progress this year.  2009 also saw the emergence of rookie wide receiver Sammie Stroughter, who also has found his rhythm this season and is now a steady contributor.  And the foundation for a young defensive line had been set as rookie defensive tackle Roy Miller was showing flashes of becoming a dominant performer.

In 2010, there has been more talent added with names like Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Gerald McCoy, and Cody Grimm.  This team is certainly performing far ahead of expectations, although some thought a playoff run was within reach.

Yes, there will be more nail biters this season, more games where the results are in doubt late into the fourth quarter.  And the youthful Buccaneers may get big chunks of points as quickly as they may give up a big chunk of points.  And it will drive the fans crazy.

You do get the feeling, however, you are not just cheering for 2010.  It's starting to feel like you are cheering for the bright future ahead for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!

Stroughter Finds Comfort Zone

Sammie Stroughter is back in the groove.

The 2009 7th round pick out of Oregon State arrived at One Buccaneer Place last year and has never looked back.  Stroughter went right to the active roster and became the breakout story of the year, catching 31 passes for 334 yards (10.8 average) with a touchdown.  And he shows no signs of the foot injury which placed him on Injured Reserve after the Seattle win last year (two games missed).

He also shows no signs of slowing down.

This season, Stroughter emerged from training camp as one of the few wideouts on the roster with any NFL experience.  The team named him a starting wideout, across from 2010 Rookie Mike Williams.  Running head up with a corner, Stroughter stuggled a bit (by his terms). Then, after the by week (Week 4),  Stroughter was moved back to the slot, where there is more space and assorted defensive matchups to deal with.  Here are his stats before and after the move:

As Flanker

Against	Targeted	Receptions	Yards	Average	Longest	Touchdowns
Cleveland	5	2	32	16.0	18	0
Carolina	1	0	0	0.0	0	0
Pittsburgh	6	4	17	4.3	5	0
Total	12	6	49

As Slot

Against	Targeted	Receptions	Yards	Average	Longest	Touchdowns
Cincinnati	3	3	39	13.0	19	0
New Orleans	9	3	51	17.0	27	0
Saint Louis	3	3	38	12.7	18	0
Total	15	9	128

Clearly, Stroughter's game has picked up since the move.  Across the board his statistics took a step up with the change back to his original position.

This move makes Stroughter a more potent weapon, which should help the Buccaneers loosen the eight man fronts they have been dealing with.  If it gets the running game working, the chances of the Buccaneers reaching the playoffs will go up dramatically!

2010 Offseason: The Wide Receivers

Plenty of excitement surrounds the 2010 draft picks in the receivers unit.  Fans recognize this as a place the team needs to improve to help the 2009 first rounder quarterback Josh Freeman elevate his game.  It should be a real gunfight to sort this position out for 2010.

Wide Receivers

Name	Strt/Gms	H/W	Acquired
Parker, Preston	0/0	5'11" 199 lbs	(2010 College Free Agent)
Adeniji, Damola	0/0	6'3" 213 lbs	(2010 College Free Agent)
Brooks, Chris	0/0	6'2" 215 lbs	(2010 College Free Agent)
Benn, Arrelious	0/0	6'1" 219 lbs	(2010 Draft Pick)
Williams, Mike	0/0	6'1" 221 lbs	(2010 Draft Pick)
Urrutia, Mario	0/0	6'6" 232 lbs	(2009 Waiver Wire)
Nunn, Terrence	0/0	6'0" 195 lbs	(2009 Waiver Wire)
Spurlock, Micheal	0/2	5'11" 200 lbs	(2009 Waiver Wire)
Brown, Reggie	0/0	6'1" 197 lbs	(2010 Free Agent)
Clayton, Michael	11/13	6'4" 215 lbs	(2004 Draft Pick)
Bradley, Mark	0/0	6'1" 201 lbs	(2009 Waiver Wire)
Stroughter, Sammie	0/13	5'10" 189 lbs	(2009 Draft Pick)
2009 Final Game Starters:
WR: Stovall, Maurice	7/15	6'5" 220 lbs	(2006 Draft Pick)

Note the number of 2009 and 2010 players competing at this position.  Looks like General Manager Mark Dominik has been working this position hard looking for deeper talent.

Players are listed in order of productivity in 2009.  The surprise on this list is most likely Mark Bradley (24 catches, 316 yards), a waiver pickup from the Kansas City Chiefs, who produced nearly the same numbers as Sammie Stroughter (31 catches, 320 yards) last season.  Bradley put up his numbers in just 13 games with six starts for the Chiefs while Stroughter played in 13 games with no starts for the Buccaneers.

At this point, one starting spot is Stovall's to lose.  Maurice has been a tremendous contributor on special teams and put up his best year in 2009.  Clearly, he currently holds the most value on this squad.  The other starting spot should be a tremendous battle between the experienced men at this position -- which could expand to include the 2010 draft picks Benn and Williams.  Clayton and Brown should have the advantage but Coach Raheem Morris has said many times that production is what they are looking for.  Clayton and Brown were the 4th and 5th most productive players in 2009 which remain on this squad.  Experience alone may not be enough to keep the very talented youth at this position out of the starting lineup.

The Buccaneers carried eight wide receivers on the roster for most of last year.  At this point, I think there are only four players who would have to lose their roster spot in order to miss the 53-man roster for 2010:  Stovall, Stroughter, Benn, and Williams.  Everyone else has to win the competition for the other spots.  It is possible three of the remaining four roster spots could captured by the most experienced remaining players in Bradley, Clayton, and Brown. 

This would leave the final roster spot for the college free agents and 2009 practice squad players.  Micheal Spurlock is also a return specialist which would give him an edge.  The three college free agents are potential practice squad targets -- Chris Brooks was impressive enough at the rookie camp to land a camp contract, can he make the roster?  Urruita and Nunn are at a pivitol point in their NFL careers and must reach the 53-man roster to stay with the team.


Tight Ends

Name	Strt/Gms	H/W	Acquired
Mastrud, Jeron	0/0	6'5" 256 lbs	(2010 College Free Agent)
Purvis, Ryan	0/0	6'4" 260 lbs	(2009 College Free Agent)
Gilmore, John	2/13	6'5" 257 lbs	(2008 Free Agent)
Stevens, Jerramy	8/16	6'7" 260 lbs	(2007 Free Agent)
2009 Final Game Starter:
Winslow, Kellen	14/16	6'4" 240 lbs	(2009 Trade)

Barring unforseen circumstances, this spot is Winslow's for the next four years.

The Buccaneers carried four tight ends on the roster last season.  With a significant push for additional receiving talent this year four may be too many.  One thing is certain -- these men are going to have to be more physical in the running game to stay on the roster.  Stevens and Gilmore must keep the youth at bay behind them.  Stevens (15 catches for 130 yards) and Gilmore (3 catches, 23 yards) are two of the five oldest players on the roster now -- they must be productive or they will not make the team.

Experience vs. Talent

I had planned to use the following table to contrast where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand versus where the NFC South Champion New Orleans Saints stand:

Team	Average Age
Redskins	28.02
Saints	27.99
Cardinals	27.74
Patriots	27.74
Lions	27.62
49ers	27.51
Steelers	27.50
Vikings	27.48
Seahawks	27.41
Falcons	27.39
Titans	27.29
Browns	27.18
Jets	27.16
Broncos	27.16
Bears	27.02
Cowboys	26.93
Bills	26.93
Chargers	26.93
Texans	26.89
Giants	26.88
Ravens	26.83
Raiders	26.82
Eagles	26.81
Rams	26.73
Jaguars	26.61
Bengals	26.60
Dolphins	26.47
Buccaneers	26.46
Panthers	26.39
Chiefs	26.36
Colts	26.34
Packers	26.16

(Data from:  ESPN South Blog around the 2009 opening weekend)

However, after a fun-to-watch come-from-behind 20-17 victory in overtime against those same Saints, the analysis changes:  what are the forward-looking prospects for the Saints and Buccaneers?

The Saints are the top of the NFC South at 13-2, are still in the driver's seat for having all their playoff games at home, and feature a high-powered offense along with an aggressive defense.  Clearly, 2009 was their year.  But as you can see from the chart above, they have the 2nd oldest team in the NFL with an average age of 27.99 years old.  How much longer can they keep their salary-heavy veterans?  Will age catch up to them in the next few years in the form of declining production and more injuries?

Meanwhile, the upstart Bucs have their first winning streak in over a year as well as an average age of 26.46 -- younger by a full year and a half per player versus the Saints -- and are the 5th youngest team in the NFL.
It is a typical scenario for the NF:.  If you look at the top of the list you see many playoff teams (excepting, of course, the rudderless and aged Washington Redskins).  Yet if you look at the bottom of the list it's not just the teams with the worst records.  You see an assortment of teams having a wide variety of seasons.  The Colts are 14-1 and are the 2nd youngest team.  The Chiefs, who nearly match the age of the Colts on average, are 3-12.  So youth is erratic, but age seems to be consistant.  Why?

I do not have the numbers, but the common sense answer is "game experience".  Obviously the Colts have done a much better job of getting their younger players ready to contribute.  On the other end of the spectrum, the Chiefs have rolled a huge chunk of their roster from the beginning of the year to players with less than 2 years experience.

This tells us something about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  waiving age during the 2009 Free Agent preiod resulted in younger players reaching the field to develop experience. The prior GM and coach preferred to keep youth on the sideline and bring in veteran after veteran.  In fact, the prior coach really has no player development story to hang his hat on (nor does the prior GM).  In contrast, many young players have reached the field under Coach Raheem Morris, including Josh Freeman, Geno Hayes, and Sammy Straughter (to name a few).  These players have shown talent and improvement in their play during the course of the 2009 season.

All this demonstrates that if you do not have experienced youth then you have no choice but to wait for it to develop -- and I'm not taling about on the practice field.  This is the state of the Buccaneers in 2009:  serving youth a heaping spoonful of experience.  During the upcoming offseason, the Buccaneers will possibly add 10 new players to the roster, and those players will need experience as well and so time will be served.  Nonetheless, as the first ever 2-12 team to defeat a 13 game winner, Tampa Bay has shown their time on the field gaining needed experience will pay off.