Benn to IR

The injury bug has struck the offense this week, with Rookie WR Arrelious Benn sent to IR.

Benn was the third pick in the most recent Tampa Bay Draft.  After leaving the game yesterday, Benn was replaced by Maurice Stovall (who caught a touchdown) and rookie Dezmon Briscoe who was recently promoted from the practice squad.

"Race to 10" Now "Must Win"

A look at the remaining schedule of the 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 21-0 San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12

LOSS 17-10 Baltimore; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 28-24 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 

WIN 17-16 Washington; Buccaneers Ranked #12 

LOSS 23-20 Detroit; Buccaneers Ranked #15 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

Seattle (6-8)  #22

Upcoming:

@New Orleans (10-4)  #6

Nothing to predict now:  to reach 10 wins the Buccaneers must win their remaining two games.  Due to the top-heavy strength of the NFC this season, even if Tampa Bay wins their next two they still need the correct combination of other teams to lose to make the playoffs.

One year after 3-13 and a 10-win season may not be enough to make the playoffs.  That's harsh!!

Running Game In High Gear

During the brutal 3-13 season of 2009, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still managed to rush for 100+ yards per game (101.7 ypg to be exact).  That resuted in a 1,627 yards on the ground.  Twenty-Two teams in the NFL generated more production by running the ball than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The story is very different this season.  So different, the Buccaneers eclipsed last year's rushing total last weekend, with two more games still remaining.  

As of today, Tampa Bay has run for 1,709 yards this season.  Well over 90% of those yards have been created by the four players with more than 10 carries this season:

Player	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry
LeGarrette Blount	164	777	4.7
Cadillac Williams	120	409	3.4
Josh Freeman	60	330	5.5
Earnest Graham	20	99	5.0

As a squad, the Buccaneers offense is showing some comparative muscle around the NFL as well:  Tampa Bay has moved into the Top 10 in the NFL in total rushing yards.  They are in a tight group of five teams who are averaging between 121 and 123 rushing yards per game, which includes (besides Tampa Bay):  Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and Minnesota Vikings.  Very good company considering the Buccaneers are the youngest team in the group by far!

Early in the season the Buccaneers running game was questioned.  Through all the injuries on the offensive line and with young, unproven receivers the Tampa Bay offense has developed a solid ground game.  This is a component of the vision expressed by General Manager Mark Dominik and Head Coach Raheem Morris when they took over at One Buccaneers Place -- a physical running attack.

It's hard to believe a 3-13 team last season can end up with a Top 10 rushing attack the next season, but the Buccaneers are on pace to make it happen in 2010.

Playoffs Situation: Wildcard Is The Only Option

The Buccaneers have moved to the cusp of the NFC Playoffs, and the stars and planets have aligned to possibly push the Buccaneers into an even tighter race by this time next week.

The chart below is a snapshot of "if the season ended today".  The (+) means the Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay finishes with the same record (because of a head-to-head win).  A (-) means the Buccaneers would lose the same tiebreaker scenario.  An asterisk (*) means a future opponent.

Remember that division winners, regardless of record, make the playoffs. Here is how the NFC breaks down as of today:

Division Winners With First Round Bye

11-2 (South) Atlanta Falcons (-)

9-4 (North) Chicago Bears

Division Winners With First Round Home Game

9-4 (East) Philadelphia Eagles

6-7 (West) St. Louis Rams (+)

Wildcards

10-3 (South) New Orleans Saints (-)

9-4 (East) New York Giants

Outside Looking In

8-5 (South) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8-5 (North) Green Bay Packers

6-7 (West) Seattle Seahawks *

Eliminated as Wildcard Possibility

5-8 (North) Minnesota Vikings

5-8 (East) Washington Redskins (+)

5-9 (West) San Francisco 49ers (+)

4-9 (West) Arizona Cardinals (+)

4-9 (East) Dallas Cowboys

3-10 (North) Detroit Lions *

1-12 (South) Carolina Panthers (+)

With two losses to the Falcons and only three games remaining, the Buccaneers are eliminated from winning the NFC South this season.  They can only make the playoffs as a Wildcard team.

With three games remaining and the Giants having 9 wins, nobody with less than six wins can overtake the Giants and qualify for the playoffs as a Wildcard.  Some of the wildcard-eliminated teams can still win their division (49ers, Cardinals) and make the playoffs, but they will not take a spot from the Buccaneers.

Key Games

First and foremost, the Buccaneers must win at home against the Detroit Lions.  A loss would leave the Buccaneers' playoffs chances hanging by the thinnest of threads.

Secondly, The Buccaneers are only competing with four teams for a spot in the playoffs anymore:  the Saints, Giants, Packers, and Seahawks.  We need these teams to lose this weekend.  Their match-ups this weekend:

• New Orleans Saints AT the Baltimore Ravens
• New York Giants HOME against the Philadelphia Eagles
• Green Bay Packers AT the New England Patriots
• Seattle Seahawks HOME against the Atlanta Falcons.

Each team has a competitive game this weekend against another playoff teams -- all four have a respectable chance of falling the right way for the Buccaneers to gain on their competition.

Eliminators

Other playoff implications:

• If the Saint Louis Rams win this weekend, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals are completely eliminated from the playoffs this season.
• If the Seattle Seahawks win this weekend, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals are completely eliminated from the playoffs this season.
• If the Seattle Seahawks lose this weekend, they cannot qualify for the playoffs as a wildcard:  they must win their division (and cannot take a Wildcard position from the Buccaneers).
• If the Saint Louis Rams lose this weekend, they cannot qualify for the playoffs as a wildcard:  they must win their division.

This could end up being a watershed weekend for the Pewter Pirates.  The Buccaneers, Saints, and Giants play early games, the Seattle Seahawks player later in the afternoon, and the Green Bay Packers are the Sunday Night Football match-up.  So get everything done Saturday -- there is a full and important day of football coming on Sunday!

"Race to 10" Update: Week 14

A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 21-0 San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12

LOSS 17-10 Baltimore; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 28-24 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 

WIN 17-16 Washington; Buccaneers Ranked #12 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

Detroit (3-10)  #28

Upcoming:

Seattle (6-7)  #20

@New Orleans (10-3)  #3

Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 19-20

This is it.  Crunch time.  Meaningful games in December.  The Stretch Run.  The Playoff Push.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a tight race and cannot afford to do what the Green Bay Packers did last weekend -- lose to the Detroit Lions.  Can you believe that 3-13 last year could finish as high as 11-5 this season??

Using the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (which change weekly), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still on course for a 10-6 finish!  I wish I knew for sure it would be enough for a playoff spot but the NFC is top heavy this season -- it should be good enough!!

Buccaneers Can Finish Off Redskins This Weekend

Ahhh, Revenge -- A Dish Best Served Cold!

This weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 5-7 Washington Redskins and the architect of the Great Collapse of 2007, Redskins General Manager Bruce Allen.  Allen, who prefers 30+ year old quarterbacks (Brad Johnson, Brian Griese, Jeff Garcia, now Donovan McNabb), has constructed one of the oldest rosters in the NFL with 18 players (33% of the 53-man roster) having 8+ years of NFL experience.  The list of long-tooths include the suspended Albert Haynesworth and three on injured reserve:  Clinton Portis, Mike Furrey, and Josh Bidwell (a punter on the Buccaneers roster in . . . 2007).  Allen was the General Manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2004 through 2007 and is best known for the 4 game losing streak which ended his tenure with the team (taking head coach Jon Gruden with him).

For comparison, the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have just three players on their roster with 8+ years of NFL experience.

There are several current Washington Redskins with familiar faces.  Buccaneer fans may remember Phillip Buchanon, who last played for the Buccaneers in . . . 2007 . . . and left as one of the poorest tacklers in team history.  They may also remember Anthony Bryant, a defensive tackle drafted in the 6th round by Allen in 2005 who appeared in four games over two years for the Buccaneers before being released.  Sadly, Tampa Bay fans will not get to see former Buccaneer Joey Galloway who was cut by Allen this past Thanksgiving weekend after last playing in Tampa in . . . yep, 2007.

Allen, who was unable to orchestrate a playoff win in his five years at the top of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers personnel department, finds himself in familiar territory 13 weeks into the season:  a somewhere-around-.500 record, injuries piling up, and the experienced players on his roster not forming a cohesive whole.

Allen made a splash by getting Donovan McNabb away from the Eagles last offseason, then resigning the 12 year veteran to a lucrative extension, generating preseason expectations of challeging the mighty Dallas Cowboys for supremacy in the NFC East.  Turns out Washington is challenging the Cowboys for the bottom of the NFC East instead, struggling to a 5-7 record (loss to Minnesota; one of only two teams to lose to Detroit) while the Eagles currently sit atop the division at 8-4, including a 59-28 drubbing of the Redskins back in Week 10.  Now, who got the better end of the deal?

The Buccaneers can stop the suffering of the Redskins fans this weekend.  A Tampa Bay win guarantees Washington a non-winning season.  Considering the NFC already has six teams with 8 or more wins this season (the Buccaneers will be the seventh should they beat Washington this Sunday), it is clear Tampa Bay can basically end the playoff run in Washington this Sunday, forcing Bruce Allen to again comb the free agent market for next year's solutions.  Too bad the Redskins are not in the NFC West, eh?

Still not convinced this can be the knockout blow for Washington on Sunday?  The Redskins already have tiebreaker losses to the Green Bay Packers (8-4), the New York Giants (8-4), and the Philadelphia Eagles (8-4).  Add the Buccaneers to the list once they finish their business this weekend.  Clearly, there will not be a scenario where an 8-8 Redskin team (and it is unlikely they reach eight wins this season in any case) can be a wildcard team in 2010.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a position which seems light years away from the 1-11 record at this time last season.  A position they can put to good use this weekend by eliminating the Washington Redskins from playoff contention and keeping pace in the NFC Wildcard Race.

Playoffs Watch: Week 14

The Buccaneers are down but not out after two tough losses.

The chart below is a snapshot of "if the season ended today".  The (+) means the Buccaneers would win the tiebreaker if Tampa Bay finishes with the same record (because of a head-to-head win).  A (-) means the Buccaneers would lose the same tiebreaker scenario.  An asterisk (*) means a future opponent.

Remember that division winners, regardless of record, make the playoffs. Here is how the NFC breaks down as of today:

Division Winners With First Round Bye

10-2 (South) Atlanta Falcons (-)

9-3 (North) Chicago Bears

Division Winners With First Round Home Game

8-4 (East) Philadelphia Eagles

6-6 (West) St. Louis Rams (+)

Wildcards

9-3 (South) New Orleans Saints (-)

8-4 (East) New York Giants

Outside Looking In

8-4 (North) Green Bay Packers

7-5 (South) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-6 (West) Seattle Seahawks *

5-7 (North) Minnesota Vikings

5-7 (East) Washington Redskins *

4-8 (East) Dallas Cowboys

4-8 (West) San Francisco 49ers (+)

3-9 (West) Arizona Cardinals (+)

2-10 (North) Detroit Lions *

1-11 (South) Carolina Panthers (+)

The Buccaneers obviously have their work cut out for them.  They are no longer in control of their own destiny and need other teams to help them by losing.  To get to the playoffs, the Buccaneers need the Green Bay Packers and either the New York Giants or Philadelphia Eagles to take a slide.  

The first Good Thing to help the Buccaneers will be when the Giants host the Eagles in Week 15.  The second Good Thing which can help the Buccaneers will be when the Giants visit the Packers in Week 16.

After a game at Detroit this weekend, Green Bay will travel to New England before the Giants game.  Their last game of the season is home against NFC North leader Chicago.  There is a good chance the Buccaneers can make up some games against Green Bay over these last four weeks of the season.

The New York Giants go to Minnesota this weekend, then play NFC East leader Philadelphia before their encounter at Green Bay.  Finally, the Giants finish on the road against the Washington Redskins.  It is within reason for the Giants to go 2-2 over these last four games of the season.

Finally, Philadelphia plays Dallas twice and hosts Minnesota along with their game at home against the Giants. Of the three, Philadelphia appears to have the least bumpy road ahead.

It's a lot to consider, but above all the Buccaneers need to get back on a winning streak!

"Race to 10" Update: Week 13

A peek ahead at the upcoming schedule of the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Past:

WIN 17-14 Cleveland; Buccaneers Ranked #27

WIN 20-7 Carolina; Buccaneers Ranked #20

LOSS 38-13 Pittsburgh; Buccaneers Ranked #22

WIN 24-21 Cincinnati; Buccaneers Ranked #17

LOSS 31-6 New Orleans; Buccaneers Ranked #19

WIN 18-17 Saint Louis; Buccaneers Ranked #17

WIN 38-35 Arizona; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 21-28 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 31-20 Carolina, Buccaneers Ranked #13

WIN 21-0 San Francisco; Buccaneers Ranked #12

LOSS 17-10 Baltimore; Buccaneers Ranked #13

LOSS 28-24 Atlanta; Buccaneers Ranked #13 (Current NFL expert ranking)

Up Next:

@Washington (5-7)  #24

Upcoming:

Detroit (2-10)  #28

Seattle (6-6)  #20

@New Orleans (9-3)  #3

Remaining Schedule Cumulative Record: 23-26

After two competitive losses, the Buccaneers are preparing for a road trip against the sub-.500 Washington Redskins.  The best path to 10 wins this season is to crush the next three teams, setting up a showdown in New Orleans against the Saints.

Using the NFL.com expert consensus rankings (which change weekly), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still on course for a 10-6 finish and an NFC Playoff birth!